NASCAR at Texas Odds, Picks: Best Bets for Today’s AAA Texas 500

One of the keys to being a successful sports bettor is the ability to keep emotion out of your wagering decisions, but that's not easy at times.

I had Ross Chastain at 100-1 in last night's XFINITY race at Texas, and for those who didn't watch, Chastain had the lead late before getting passed by Christopher Bell on a restart and ultimately finishing second.

Obviously, losing a bet with a massive payout like that creates emotions, similar to those of a poker player tilting after a bad beat.

And as difficult as it can be, it's imperative to not allow the results of previous wagers to infiltrate your decision-making process, specifically those based purely on emotion.

With this in mind, I'm not going overboard on today's NASCAR AAA Texas 500 in order to try and make up what I hoped would be a huge win last night, but I am sticking to historical data and this week's on-track activity at Texas Motor Speedway to land on two drivers worth betting to win.
All odds as of Sunday morning and via the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook.

NASCAR at Texas Best Bet Picks

Martin Truex Jr. (8-1) to Win

This number has overreaction written all over it. Truex was an absolute rocket at the most recent races run at Las Vegas and Kansas, the two NASCAR playoff events held at 1.5-mile racetracks, just like Texas.

The driver of the No. 19 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota won at Vegas to kick off the playoffs and has the best driver rating by far over those two races.

But after qualifying just 17th, Truex's odds have dropped to 8-1. While starting in the middle of the field isn't ideal, guess his average starting position at those two 1.5-mile playoff races … 17.5.

An added bonus for Truex: He's already locked into the championship race at Homestead after winning last week at Martinsville. This affords his team the ability to get off-sequence on strategy, especially since there is basically no tire falloff at Texas.

Just like Chastain yesterday, Truex doesn't need to worry about playoff points like the rest of the top NASCAR drivers and can instead focus solely on putting himself in the best position to win the race.

Aric Almirola (40-1) to Win

Speaking of emotions, Almirola teased us last week at Martinsville, running in or near the top five before getting tangled up with Kyle Busch and knocked out of the race.

And since that result shouldn't do anything to keep us off Almirola today, I'm going back to the well because the value is too good to pass up.

Stewart-Haas Racing (SHR) is fast this weekend. Kevin Harvick is on the pole, while Clint Bowyer and Almirola showed plenty of speed in practice.

Interestingly, all four SHR drivers, including Daniel Suarez, have seen major odds adjustments, but Almirola is still the longest shot of the team and I don't understand why.

To start, Aric had a good run at Texas back in March, finishing seventh. The No. 10 SHR Ford has had plenty of speed this week as well, qualifying sixth while ranking second, fifth and third in five-lap, 10-lap and 15-lap averages, respectively, in final practice.

So at 40-1 we get a driver who finished top-10 in the most recent race at Texas, has a great starting spot and was easily a top-five car in practice.

To be fair, I wouldn't list Almirola among the favorites either, but him having longer odds than Suarez (30-1) is head-scratching.

While top-five numbers aren't available at the time of writing, I'll also look to play Aric for a top-five finish.