NASCAR XFINITY Series at Road America Betting Odds and Picks: The Mispriced Driver for Saturday’s Henry 180

Credit:

Photo by Stacy Revere/Getty Images. Pictured: Kaz Grala, driver of the #21 HotScream Chevrolet

Aug 08, 2020, 10:00 AM EDT
  • PJ Walsh breaks down betting odds and offers his predictions and picks for Saturday's NASCAR XFINITY Series Henry 180 at Road America.
  • Read on to find out which driver he's targeting as a +1600 longshot for a top-three finish.

In addition to the NASCAR Cup Series’ weekend doubleheader at Michigan, the XFINITY Series will be in action at Road America for Saturday’s Henry 180 (12 p.m. ET, NBCSN).

I love road course racing in NASCAR, so much so that this is the event I’m most looking forward to this weekend.

In addition, Road America is offering my favorite bet, in terms of value, of the entire NASCAR weekend as well.

I’m just going to go ahead and say it: Kaz Grala is undervalued for the Henry 180.

NASCAR XFINITY Series at Road America Betting Pick

To be fair, part of that is due to the big three of Austin Cindric (+125), A.J. Allmendinger (+325) and Chase Briscoe (+550) eating up so much of the implied probability pie, but Grala still isn’t getting the respect her deserves from oddsmakers.

DraftKings Sportsbook is listing Kaz at 80-1 to win at Road America, a big price for a driver who finished fifth in this race, and in this car, last year.

The No. 21 Richard Childress Racing Chevy is no stranger to good results at this track either, as Daniel Hemric piloted it to a third-place finish two years ago as well.

In fact, I immediately zeroed in on Grala this week because I remember the showdown he had with Austin Cindric in a Truck series event at Canadian Motorsports Park, also a road course, a race in which Cindric dumped Grala on the final lap to take the lead and win.

Note: Somehow I did bet on Cindric in that race, which is so off-brand for me to win like that.

I do think Grala at 80-1 or better is worth a flier, but like him 16-1 for a top-three finish even more.

Like the odds suggest, it’s going to be tough to beat the three-headed monster of Cindric, Allmendinger and Briscoe, but strange things, from drivers running off course, to multiple-car pileups, to road course pit strategy can certainly change that.

By betting Kaz for a top three, we don’t necessarily have to beat all three of those big guns to cash either.

Odds of 16-1 correlate to an implied probability of 5.88%, meaning there’s value in this wager if we project Grala to score a podium finish more than 5.88% of the time.

Based on his performance last year, his solid road course history and a sixth-place starting position in the Henry 180, that’s a gamble very much worth taking.

The Bet: Kaz Grala (+1600) for a Top-3 Finish in the Henry 180 [Bet now at DraftKings and get a $1,000 sign-up bonus.]

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