While we don’t have public bet percentages on player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of tickets and percentage of money on each game, we can find situations where the Vegas lines may be undervaluing a particular team, which can provide value on props for the players involved.
With that in mind, here are three props from TNT’s Tuesday night slate that are worth considering:
- Greg Monroe over/under 10 points (vs. MIL) — 8 p.m. ET
- Nikola Mirotic over/under 17.5 points (@ POR) — 10:30 p.m. ET
- Jusuf Nurkic over/under 14.5 points (vs. NOP) — 10:30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 17. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
Celtics C Greg Monroe Under 10 points vs. Bucks (-145 at Bovada)
8 p.m. ET | TNT
In two meetings with the Bucks since April 3, Monroe has put up just 11 shots, hitting four and scoring only 10 points in less than 34 minutes of action. He played just 10:28 in Game 1, his fewest minutes in more than a month. It was the second time in three games head coach Brad Stevens deployed Monroe for fewer than 20 minutes after using him for 20-plus minutes in each of the four games before that.
Boston (-2) is getting just under 50% of spread tickets but fewer than 25% of the money, which indicates that the Celtics may be overvalued in this spot after barely eking out a win in overtime of Game 1. Public bettors are also in love with this low over/under (200). Getting 74% of tickets, the over is the most popular public side of tonight’s NBA slate, which means the under is definitely in play.
And then you throw in Monroe’s recent form — he’s topped 10 points in only three of his past 11 games — and it’s pretty clear the under is the play for this prop.