3 NBA Props for Tuesday: Nurkic Over/Under 14.5 Points?
While we don’t have public bet percentages on player props, we do have them for the spreads and over/unders of each game. By identifying discrepancies between the percentage of tickets and percentage of money on each game, we can find situations where the Vegas lines may be undervaluing a particular team, which can provide value on props for the players involved.
With that in mind, here are three props from TNT’s Tuesday night slate that are worth considering:
- Greg Monroe over/under 10 points (vs. MIL) — 8 p.m. ET
- Nikola Mirotic over/under 17.5 points (@ POR) — 10:30 p.m. ET
- Jusuf Nurkic over/under 14.5 points (vs. NOP) — 10:30 p.m. ET
All lines accurate as of 5 p.m. ET on Tuesday, April 17. Looking for more props? Check out the FantasyLabs Player Props tool.
Celtics C Greg Monroe Under 10 points vs. Bucks (-145)
8 p.m. ET | TNT
In two meetings with the Bucks since April 3, Monroe has put up just 11 shots, hitting four and scoring only 10 points in less than 34 minutes of action. He played just 10:28 in Game 1, his fewest minutes in more than a month. It was the second time in three games head coach Brad Stevens deployed Monroe for fewer than 20 minutes after using him for 20-plus minutes in each of the four games before that.
Boston (-2) is getting just under 50% of spread tickets but fewer than 25% of the money, which indicates that the Celtics may be overvalued in this spot after barely eking out a win in overtime of Game 1. Public bettors are also in love with this low over/under (200). Getting 74% of tickets, the over is the most popular public side of tonight’s NBA slate, which means the under is definitely in play.
And then you throw in Monroe’s recent form — he’s topped 10 points in only three of his past 11 games — and it’s pretty clear the under is the play for this prop.
Pelicans PF Nikola Mirotic Over 17.5 Points at Blazers (+100)
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Mirotic cooled off in Game 1, hitting only 6-of-15 (40%) shots from the field after a torrid 49-for-87 (56.3%) stretch, yet he came only two points short of going over this prop. He’s topped 20 points in six of his past eight games, averaging 21.1 per game over that span.
The discrepancy between the amount of money and the amount of tickets on the over in this game is the largest of all games on Tuesday’s slate in Sports Insights’ Sharp Action Report. The same goes for spread tickets on New Orleans (+6), indicating the books may be underrating the Pelicans’ scoring potential in this one.
Trail Blazers C Jusuf Nurkic Under 14.5 Points vs. Pelicans (-100)
10:30 p.m. ET | TNT
Rookie Zach Collins encroached on Nurkic’s minutes in Game 1, with Nurkic barely beating him out 24:32-21:35. You never know if a rookie will be able to string together back-to-back solid games in the playoffs, but it’s quite possible Collins continues to cut into Nurkic’s playing time. Nurkic simply can’t stop Anthony Davis. The Brow waxed him for 8-of-13 shooting in Game 1. With Collins in the game, the Blazers were able to put Al-Farouq Aminu, a better defender, on Davis. Nurkic has been held to 14 points or fewer in four of his past five games and in three of five meetings with New Orleans.
With Portland receiving a significantly lower percentage of spread money than spread tickets, it’s possible that the books are overrating the Blazers a bit, and that, combined with the possibility that Portland will have to go with more floor spacing, tilts the odds in favor of the under here.
Pictured above: Jusuf Nurkic
Photo credit: Troy Wayrynen — USA TODAY Sports