Celtics vs. Warriors NBA Finals Game 6 Odds, Predictions: 19% ROI Betting System Aligned With Public Bettors
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jayson Tatum #0 of the Boston Celtics during Game 2 of the 2022 NBA Finals.
Golden State Warriors vs. Boston Celtics Odds
|Date||Thursday, June 16|
|Time||9 p.m. ET|
*Odds as of Thursday afternoon, according to FanDuel
The public is riding with the Celtics for Game 6 of the NBA Finals.
Boston’s foibles down the stretch, in which they’ve collapsed in two straight fourth quarters, have put them down three games to two, but both the big-money bettors and general public are still rolling with the Celtics for this monumental matchup.
The historical betting data is backing the Celtics to cover tonight, too.
A PRO system developed by the Action Network indicates the Celtics’ spread at -3.5 fits a historically profitable NBA postseason betting trend that has returned an impressive 19% return on investment (ROI) since 2005.
The system incorporates tracking proprietary data to the Action Network that accumulates betting percentages across all major American sportsbooks.
The PRO system lights up when NBA playoff favorites receive a ton of sharp and big money bettors on their spread.
Specifically, a team fits the system when spread money % is substantially greater than spread individual bet %. When spread money % is sizably greater than bet %, there’s a massive group of big moneyed bettors who are dropping heavy on that particular line.
The Celtics’ spread has 81% of the total money and just 52% of the individual tickets.
So in this instance, the difference between total money and total bets is a considerable 29%.
Over the last 17 years, if you had wagered $100 per game on the roughly 25 NBA playoff games per year that have fit this system, then you’d be up over $5,950 today. That’s about $350 per playoffs, good for a solid 61% win rate over a lengthy sample size.
For reference, a success rate of 52.5% is enough to break even.
Another trend to note is that since 2010, the team that wins an NBA Finals game covers 98.4% of the time. And the other 1.6% was a push that saw bettors get their money back.
Over the last 12 NBA Finals, teams that win are 60-0-1 against the spread. That trend suggests you should seldom bet the moneyline on favorites — just lay the points for better value — and if you’re betting the underdog, just ride with its ML for the same reasons.
A caveat here to internalize is that the aforementioned betting system has returned a 19% ROI over a very long sample size. While tonight may be the day to cash in, keep in mind that this is meant to be a long-term investment.
The best way to have maximized that 19% ROI is to have bet on every playoff team that has fit this system since the first round.
PRO Pick: Celtics -3.5 or better