Long shots are a recurring thing in both sports and prediction markets, but some shots are longer than others. At Kalshi, the “Oklahoma City to go 16-0 in the Playoffs” market is gaining traction as the defending champions are crushing the competition and off to an 8-0 start.
However, no team has ever completed an undefeated run through the playoffs. While the market sentiment is clear about the odds, there’s still potential for a strategic approach.
Will the Thunder Finish NBA Playoffs Undefeated?
The “Yes” position goes for $0.06, while “No” holds a price of $0.95. Traders are almost certain that an unprecedented run is unattainable for Oklahoma City, even if its performances over the first eight games were elite.
The market sentiment has remained stable since opening on May 6, 2026, with positive chances peaking at 14% after the 115-110 win over the Lakers. However, traders now believe there’s only a 5% chance of a perfect run from the Thunder.
The closest a team has ever come to such a feat was the 2016-17 Warriors, who finished with an impressive 16-1 record at the end of the playoffs. The 2000-01 Los Angeles Lakers' 15-1 run and the 1982-83 Philadelphia 76ers' 12-1 performance also stand out. Records are made to be broken, but most traders are sceptical that Oklahoma City has what it takes to break this one.
A (not so) long shot strategy
Logically speaking, the “No” contracts make more sense, but there’s not much profit to be made without buying an exorbitant volume. At $0.06, the “Yes” shares are positioned as an interesting opportunity.
For instance, the “Yes” shares could experience a significant spike in price if the Oklahoma City Thunder win their next 2-3 games. Then, selling those positions could result in a considerable profit.
Keep in mind that prediction markets are different from traditional sports betting. Kalshi is a highly liquid and dynamic market that allows traders to buy and sell positions at any given time before the market settles. Of course, the tricky part with predictions like this is that any game can become the one that settles the market.
How will this Kalshi market settle?
- In order for the market to resolve “Yes”, the Thunder has to win the NBA Finals undefeated. Any lost game will result in a “No” settlement.
- Sources from the NBA, Fox Sports and ESPN.
