Best Clippers vs. Mavericks NBA Prop Bets: Will Doncic Grab Double-Digit Rebounds?
Glenn James/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Luka Doncic (77) of the Dallas Mavericks.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday afternoon and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from the only game on the slate:
- Los Angeles Clippers at Dallas Mavericks: 8:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
Let’s dive in.
Mavericks G Luka Doncic
THE PICK: Over 9 rebounds (-130) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Twenty-year-old Luka Doncic is averaging 28.9 points, 9.7 rebounds and 9.0 assists per game. Sometimes it’s just fun to type that sentence out.
His rebounding is the focus here. Doncic has gone over 9 rebounds in 20 of 38 games, but he’s also pushed (exactly nine) in four more, so you’d have lost on this prop in only 16 of 38 games — just 42.1% of the time.
We’re using the whole number to our advantage here, knowing a push is a very possible outcome but one that doesn’t hurt us. In Luka’s last 10 games, he has at least eight rebounds in every one of them. That means we can think of eight boards as his floor, so we need only one surplus rebound for a push and two for a win. I like those odds all the way up to -150.
Clippers C Ivica Zubac
THE PICK: Under 0.5 blocks (-105) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
You know, for a guy who is nicknamed Zublocka, Ivica Zubac sure doesn’t block a ton of shots. He’s averaging 1.0 blocks per game this season and has had more than two blocks in a game only four times all season. He has 18 games with one or two blocks, and in 21 of 43 games he has been held without a block altogether.
That last one is the game we’re banking on tonight, because a single solitary block anytime this evening from Zubac and we’re sunk. As with many props, this is a playing time question. In 13 games in which Zubac has played at least 20 minutes, he has nine games with multiple blocks. That leaves only six from the other 30, with 17 of those 30 games a goose egg in the blocks column.
Our model is betting on 18.6 minutes tonight and 0.8 blocks, right about at his typical game. Of course, you can’t have almost-a-block in real life. Dallas is not a great matchup for Zubac with no traditional big man to guard, so it should be a lower-minutes game.
This is our only 10 out of 10 prop today. Let’s get wild.
Clippers F Kawhi Leonard
THE PICK: Over 4.5 assists (+100) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Paul George is out again, and our model is expecting a big performance from Kawhi Leonard, with Dorian Finney-Smith the only Mavs player with any real chance of slowing him. Our model likes Leonard’s over 7.5 rebounds too, but I prefer the assists.
Leonard averaged 6.0 assists the first nine games of the season before PG made his debut, and he’s at 4.5 per game in six January games without George. No PG means more time on the ball for Kawhi, and his assist rate is higher than ever this season. Leonard has gone over 4.5 assists in nine of 15 PG-less games.
Let’s make it an even 10, especially at +EV odds. I’m riding Kawhi all the way to -135 as needed.