The Milwaukee Bucks (8-10) and Miami Heat (12-6) will face off in the NBA tonight. Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. EST from the Kaseya Center in Miami, Fla. The game will be broadcast live on FDSSUN.
The Heat are 8-point favorites over the Bucks on the spread (Heat -8), with the over/under set at 237 total points. Miami is a -305 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Milwaukee is +245 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Bucks vs. Heat predictions and NBA picks for Wednesday, November 26.
My Bucks vs Heat Prediction
- Bucks vs Heat pick: Heat -8 (-110)
My Heat vs Bucks best bet is on Miami to cover the spread, with the best price currently available at bet365. But as always, make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Bucks vs Heat Odds
| Bucks Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+8 -110 | 237 -110o / -110u | +245 |
| Heat Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-8 -110 | 237 -110o / -110u | -305 |
Bucks vs Heat NBA Preview
On Monday, Miami finally got back All-Star guard Tyler Herro in the lineup after he averaged 23.9 points, 4.7 rebounds, and 5.2 assists per game last season.
He picked up right where he left off with 24 points, seven rebounds, and seven assists. Uncharacteristically, he did not make a 3-pointer and only attempted two.
Norman Powell did not play in that game with a left groin strain, but he is probable tonight.
That will give head coach Erik Spoelstra his first opportunity to incorporate his two dynamic scorers into the lineup together.
Powell is averaging 25.4 points per game this season and with 50/46/88 shooting splits, he has a chance at a 50/40/90 season.
The Heat defeated the Mavericks on Monday for their fifth straight win and eighth in their last 10 games.
The change in Miami's pace and offensive system has gotten a lot of attention thus far, but the core principles of "Heat Culture" remain as they rank eighth in defensive rating over their last 10 games. They have surged into the third seed in the Eastern Conference as a result.
Miami has battled with Milwaukee in the playoffs in three of the last six years.
However, at the moment, the Bucks would find themselves on the outside looking in as they enter tonight's game in 11th place in the Eastern Conference.
They have lost their last five games, with the last 3.5 games coming without Giannis Antetokounmpo, who is averaging 31.2 points, 10.2 rebounds, and 6.8 assists per game this season.
With Antetokounmpo on the floor, Milwaukee has a +8.1 net rating in 414 minutes, but that number plummets to a -11.9 net rating in 460 minutes without him.
It may not be without him much longer as he has been upgraded to questionable for tonight's game.
Ryan Rollins has stepped up as he has scored 20 points in four of the five full games the Bucks has played without Antetokounmpo as well as the game he was injured against Cleveland.
However, his efficiency has dropped as he has gotten more defensive attention. He has shot just 13-for-35 from the field over his last two games and tonight figures to get a heavy dose of Davion Mitchell.
Bucks vs Heat Prediction, Betting Analysis
Since the Heat upset the Bucks as the 8th seed in the 2023 NBA Playoffs, the Bucks have controlled this series, winning and covering six of the last seven regular season meetings.
However, they enter this game on a five-game losing streak.
Four of those losses have been by double digits and it was also outscored by nine points in overtime against Philadelphia.
The Bucks have fallen to 2-8 against the spread in their last 10 games.
Meanwhile, the Heat have covered seven of their last 10 games. Their 12-6 record ATS matches their record straight up this season and they are covering by 7.4 points per game.
Miami is also 7-2 ATS at home, where it will play again tonight.
Keep an eye on the injury report for this one, but if Antetokounmpo is ruled out, I like Miami to cover at home tonight as I expect a double-digit victory if he is out.
If Milwaukee continues to struggle offensively, their missed shots will provide more rebound chances for Kel'el Ware.
Spoelstra has been tough on him over the last few months, but the tough love may just be paying off. He is averaging 15.1 points, 14.7 rebounds, and 1.6 blocks over his last nine games.
In that span, he has averaged over 20 rebound chances per game, including a staggering 35 on Monday.
That means he should have plenty of opportunities to collect at least 10 rebounds tonight as he has done in his last nine games.
Herro picked up right where he left off a 20-point season debut. He has also scored 19 points or more in four of his last five games against the Bucks, including games of 35 and 40 points.
Milwaukee is 25th in points allowed to point guards and 19th against shooting guards.
Meanwhile, Miami has been willing to give up the long ball this season. It is allowing 44.8 3-point attempts per game, 2.9 more than any other team.
While it leads the 3-point percentage defense (31.6%), it is still over 14 3-pointers per game.
That sets up for AJ Green, who is shooting 47% on 6.5 3-point attempts per game this season. He has made two triples in 14 of 17 games this season.
Pick: Heat -8 (-110, bet365)
Bucks vs Heat Parlay Picks
- Tyler Herro 20+ Points
- Kel'el Ware 10+ Rebounds
- AJ Green 2+ Three-Pointers Made
Parlay Odds: +214 via bet365
Heat vs Bucks Betting Trends
