NBA Opening Night Best Bets: Expert Picks for Suns-Warriors

Who's ready for NBA Opening Night? If you're here, we already know you are — and that you're looking for the best NBA opening night bets on the internet.

Look no further, as you've found the best NBA best today, courtesy of our expert picks for NBA opening night.

With Lakers vs Nuggets already underway, we're moving on to our best bets and expert picks for Suns vs Warriors. Here's everything you need to know for betting on NBA opening night.

NBA Opening Night Best Bets: Expert Picks for Suns-Warriors

By Matt Moore

Following the news that Draymond Green is out, I'm still confident in this Warriors pick, especially since Bradley Beal will miss this game with back tightness and Devin Booker is questionable.

The Warriors' home-court advantage is most important here. I make this game -5.5 with Warriors' home-court rating from last season. Even if we move the line a full three points for Green's absence, we're still at the number based on that before factoring Beal's absence.

Green being out obviously hurts this Warriors defense, but Golden State has enough to win this game in an advantageous spot.

Meanwhile, the Suns have a lot of new pieces. There’s almost no continuity. They have a new coach, and the only returning rotation players are Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Josh Okogie. On the road in a tough environment versus a team that can switch and shoot like the Warriors, that’s a tough task.

Fortune favors the bold. Warriors ML.

Pick: Warriors Moneyline (Play to -160)

By Joe Dellera

We obviously know that Devin Booker can score, but how he does so might change this season as he takes on a slightly different role for the Suns.

Last season, Booker averaged 2.2 made 3s on 5.9 attempts per game with only 28.9% of his shots coming from beyond the arc. In this preseason, Booker played 3 games and drained two, three and four 3s on four, six and six attempts, yet he never logged more than 21 minutes. These attempts comprised 45.7% of his shot profile in the preseason.

This uptick in 3s as a percentage of Booker's shot profile coincides with comments that Suns head coach Frank Vogel has made throughout the preseason. It is evident that the lack of 3-point shooting hurt Phoenix against Denver in the postseason, and getting 3s up has been a priority in Suns practice.

Booker's 3-point prop has opened at 1.5 (-160), but I think there is more value on 3+ (+200), 4+ (+525), and 5+ (+1425) all at bet365.

Pick: Devin Booker 3s Ladder: 3+ Made 3s (+200) | 4+ Made 3s (+525) | 5+ Made 3s (+1425)

Make sure to use Action's bet365 bonus code if you're making this bet at bet365!

By Matt Trebby

NBA Opening Night and we already have a big-time revenge game in the NBA — and a way to bet it!

OK, "Revenge Game" might be strong, but Chris Paul’s points + assists + rebounds line at BetRivers is hanging on at 23.5 for Suns vs. Warriors on Tuesday night. Our Action Labs projections show a 16% edge to the over, but that edge is with the line at 24.5, which it is at almost every other book. Either way, we're projecting Paul for 27.1 combined points, rebounds and assists.

Whether Paul starts or comes off the bench remains unknown, although his chances of playing significant minutes are high. He will take Jordan Poole’s minutes in the Warriors’ rotation and then some, providing more of what the team needs instead of another scorer in Poole.

The assumption is that Paul and Steph Curry will see their minutes staggered to ensure one elite ball-handler will be on the floor at all times. When Curry is out, Paul will run the show, likely with Klay Thompson and/or Andrew Wiggins by his side. Hell, the NBA might not be ready for the CP3-Jonathan Kuminga pick-and-roll after seeing the efficiency that the latter put up in the preseason.

In 20.2 preseason minutes, Paul averaged 7.5 points, 5.8 assists and four rebounds for 17.3 PRA. I’m not going to treat preseason efficiency as gospel here, but it’s about all we have to go off for CP3’s Warriors role. Extend that to 25-30 minutes, and the veteran would be expected to go over.

Also helping Paul will be the absence of Draymond Green, who will miss this game with an ankle sprain. Obviously, the two play different positions, but that opens up some ball-handling responsibilities in the Warriors offense that could go to Paul.

Pick: Chris Paul Over 23.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists

By Joe Dellera

While there is a thought that Booker or Bradley Beal may be the biggest beneficiaries to see their assists numbers climb with Paul's departure, the surprising target from a betting perspective is Jusuf Nurkic.

Deandre Ayton is a better player than Nurkic, and I think the former's departure will impact the Suns' defensive flexibility significantly. The one thing Nurkic does better than Ayton, though, is operating as a secondary facilitator.

Nurkic is a solid wheelman who can dish out of the post in a variety of actions. In 40 games last season playing alongside Damian Lillard in Portland, Nurkic averaged 2.9 assists per game and had three or more in half of those games.

In Phoenix, Nurkic gets to play in an even more overpowering offense that he can contribute towards.

While Nurkic did not record any assists against the Lakers in Phoenix's last preseason game, he logged five, two and three in the previous three without playing more than 21 minutes in any of those games. More importantly, he had five and three in the games he played with Booker, Durant and Beal.

Last season, Nurkic averaged 26.7 minutes per game and I'd be surprised given Phoenix's relative lack of depth that he would see fewer minutes this season.

Nurkic's prop has opened at over 2.5 assists (+125 DraftKings) and that is absolutely a bet. I would consider 4+ (+230 FanDuel) and 5+ (+575 DraftKings), as well.

Pick: Jusuf Nurkic Assist Overs: Over 2.5 (+125, DraftKings) | 4+ (+230, FanDuel) | 5+ (+575, DK)

By Chris Baker

Last season, the Warriors had a defensive rating of 110.3 with Draymond Green on the court, and a 120.1 defensive rating with him off the floor. That nearly 10 point swing is the difference between an 89th percentile defense and a 13th percentile defense.

Golden State can’t survive defensively with him off the floor and only expect that factor to be exacerbated given the addition of Chris Paul. CP3 is no longer a good defender as his lateral quickness has rapidly deteriorated as he has aged. The Warriors will likely hide him on Grayson Allen but that means Steph is going to have to match up with Bradley Beal or Devin Booker. Unless they plan on playing Gary Payton II 35+ minutes there just isn’t any good ways to match up with this Suns trio.

I’m not worried about the Suns offense taking time to mesh as it should be heavily predicated on simple pick-and roll concepts and isolation given the talent in their starting five. However, their defense will struggle to communicate well early in the season and that is a disaster against this Warrior offense.

Similar to the Warriors, unless Josh Okogie plays massive minutes the Suns are going to struggle to defend. Warriors ranked 1st in pace last year so pace should not be an issue in this game.

Pick: Suns vs. Warriors (Over 232 points, DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

I could sit up here and try to act like I have a bunch of science behind this pick, but it's opening night, so give me a break.

This is a straight vibes bet and I have no problem saying it, and for me, those are some of my better ones. Study long, study wrong, as we said growing up…

Jamal Murray over on points was the first bet I looked for and it's the one I'm playing. He terrorizes the Lakers — was over in all four Western Conference Finals games — he's a big game player, and I think he's poised to be a first-time All-Star after winning a title.

I also like Murray at +165 to score 25 or more points on FanDuel.

Goodnight, Canada.

Pick: Jamal Murray Over 25 points (+165, FanDuel)

By Andrew Lynch

You might not believe me at first blush, but betting on the Los Angeles Lakers on NBA Opening Night of the 2023-24 regular season offers you a rare opportunity to fade the public.

Yes, read that again — betting on the Lakers against the Nuggets on Tuesday means that you'll be going against the grain, which is a very rare thing indeed, given how popular the Lakers always are as a betting side.

To tip off the 2023-24 NBA season, though? Well, the defending champion Nuggets are getting all the respect in Denver on Tuesday night — from recreational bettors, that is. According to our PRO insights, nearly 70% of all spread bets in Lakers vs Nuggets are on Denver.

Wise bettors know that a big disparity between the number of tickets bet on a team and the amount of money being wagered on a side can be a key indicator of smart, professional bets, though, and the Lakers are seeing a whopping 85% of the money bet on the spread as 5-point underdogs, compared to just 31% of the individual bets placed.

That's one incredibly striking piece of data I simply can't overlook. It's not just "fading the public". It's fading the public taken to its most extreme. Generally, if there's even a 20% delta between ticket percentage and money percentage, that's an overwhelming sign of potential value. When that difference is bigger than 50%? That's a shining beacon beckoning us to ride with the pros.

The betting split isn't the only sharp signal in our favor, though. As professional bettors keep backing Los Angeles, the line has moved several times to Lakers +4.5, before public money moves it back to +5. How many times, you ask? Try 17 instances of sharp action causing line movement ahead of NBA Opening Night. And every time it goes back to Lakers +5, the professionals are right back at the well.

Sorry to the defending champs, but I have to take the points.

Pick: Lakers +5

By Jay Money

I thinks the Lakers will win outright, but taking +5.5 is a great play.

Los Angeles has circled this game and is in a revenge spot after getting swept in the 2023 playoffs by the Nuggets. Over the summer, there have been a few instances where members from the Nuggets have mentioned the Lakers, and Anthony Davis has mentioned how badly they want this game.

LeBron James is 0-4 in his last four season openers, but the Lakers have clearly talked themselves into this Nuggets banter being legit. You might also want to consider Lakers +2.5 on the first half spread; from October to January last season, the Nuggets were 19-24 ATS in the first half. That makes me believe the game should be competitive in the first half.

But since I think L.A. will win this one straight up, I'll gladly take the 5.5 points.

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