NBA Odds & Best Bets: Our Staff’s Picks for Spurs vs. Heat, Kings vs. Nuggets (Saturday, Feb. 26)
Via Steven Ryan/Getty Images. Pictured: Domantas Sabonis
- The NBA has an exciting day ahead with seven games to bet on.
- Brandon Anderson and Joe Dellera both are eying bets on the Spurs-Heat and Kings-Nuggets.
- Check out their best bets and analysis below.
The NBA season rolls on this Saturday with seven games to bet on.
Our Action Network NBA analysts Raheem Palmer, Brandon Anderson and Joe Dellera have identified a spread pick and a player prop bet as their two favorite plays for Saturday.
NBA Odds & Picks
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Chicago Bulls
Raheem Palmer: The Memphis Grizzlies come off a 119-114 loss over the Minnesota Timberwolves on Thursday night and now take on the Chicago Bulls with a red hot DeMar Derozan.
We’ve seen a strong shift within the market moving the Grizzlies from 1.5 point underdogs to 1.5 point favorites for good reason. Despite the heroics of Derozan, this is a depleted Bulls team missing their best perimeter defenders in Lonzo Ball and Alex Caruso.
Nevertheless, I’m expecting a monster game from Ja Morant and a Grizzlies offense which is second in transition points per possession. The Bulls particularly struggle in transition where they’re just 23rd in transition points per possession (2.9) so this could be a track meet considering the Morant’s ability to push the pace.
The Bulls are just 19th in Defensive Rating (112.2) also struggle in the half court where they’re 22nd in points per play (96.8) so I expect this Grizzlies offense which is scoring 117.7 points per 100 possessions over the last two weeks to continue rolling here.
The Bulls allow the highest frequency of field goal attempts at the rim as well (36.4%) so this feels like an ideal spot for the Grizzlies who take the 5th most attempts at the rim. Look for the Grizzlies to get the win in what should be a high scoring game.
San Antonio Spurs vs. Miami Heat
Brandon Anderson: Don’t look now, but the San Antonio Spurs are … fine.
They’re fine. Look, they the Spurs are not good, and they’re certainly not great, but they’re fine! They’re okay. They’re better than you think, and better than they’re being given credit for.
The Spurs are 24-36 and only one game out of the final spot in the play-in tournament right now. They actually have a positive point differential on the season too — just barely! — and their expected win-loss record at Basketball Reference is 30-30.
By net rating, the Spurs compare favorably to teams like the Clippers, Hornets, and Hawks. All of whom are also fine! San Antonio ranks 13th in Offensive Rating and 18th in Defensive Rating. Fine, thanks for asking.
The thing about Pop’s teams is that they pretty much always show up and make you earn it. No matter the talent deficit, you’re going to have to go out and actually win the game. San Antonio continues to be written off as uninteresting and uninspiring, but the Spurs have been feisty underdogs.
This season as six-point dogs or longer, San Antonio is 13-6 ATS, covering 68% of the time by an average of 4.76 points per game. That includes seven outright wins, plus close calls against the Suns, Nuggets, Jazz, Nets, and Mavs. San Antonio is a perfect 5-0 ATS as an underdog of nine or more this season.
So why is this line so high? It’s a tough schedule spot, with the Spurs coming off an exhausting double overtime 157-153 win last night in Washington, and that’s fair. But that was also San Antonio’s first game in a week, and Miami played on the road last night too. Besides, the Heat are just 1-4 ATS this season as more than nine-point favorites.
Sacramento Kings vs. Denver Nuggets
Joe Dellera: The Kings and Nuggets are in the second game of a dual set where the Nuggets emerged victorious on Thursday 128-110. While I like Denver to win this game as well, I’m targeting a specific prop for this matchup.
Domantas Sabonis has excelled with the Kings, averaging 20.4 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 5.4 assists in five games. But whenever Sabonis matches up with Jokic, those numbers improve.
Just two days ago he dropped 33 points, 14 rebounds, and 5 assists, but over his last three seasons he has consistently performed well against Jokic. In five games since 2019-2020 against Jokic, Sabonis has averaged 18.6 points, 11.4 rebounds and 8.8 assists with two triple doubles and near misses in two of the others.
Sabonis’ prop line for Rebounds + Assists is 17.5 (-130 DraftKings). This is a number he has cleared in four of five games with the Kings and eight of his last 10 overall. Moreover, he has hit this prop in his last five games against Jokic with an average output of 20.2 Rebounds + Assists.
I’ll back Sabonis to keep rolling as he finds another gear when playing Jokic, and I will sprinkle his Triple Double (+850 FanDuel) while most books have it listed as low as +500.