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NBA Betting Picks for Monday, Feb. 24: Our Experts’ Best Bet for Grizzlies-Clippers with Paul George Set to Play

NBA Betting Picks for Monday, Feb. 24: Our Experts’ Best Bet for Grizzlies-Clippers with Paul George Set to Play article feature image

Photo credit: Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images. Pictured: Kawhi Leonard and Paul George

  • The Los Angeles Clippers got good injury news about 90 minutes prior to their game against the Memphis Grizzlies: Paul George and Patrick Beverley will both play against Ja Morant & Co.
  • That news send the spread on the move, as the line shifted from Clippers -10 to Clippers -11.5.
  • But our NBA betting experts aren't targeting the spread, instead opting to pick the over/under.

There are eight games on Monday’s NBA schedule, and our experts are betting on these specific matchups:

  • 7 p.m. ET: Atlanta Hawks at Philadelphia 76ers
  • 7 p.m. ET: Miami Heat at Cleveland Cavaliers
  • 7 p.m. ET: Milwaukee Bucks at Washington Wizards
  • 10:30 p.m. ET: Memphis Grizzlies at Los Angeles Clippers

See the five bets they’re making below.

Odds as of Monday and via PointsBet. Get up to $275 in free bets at PointsBet today or see more offers and reviews for the best online sportsbooks.

Wob: Grizzlies at Clippers

  • Spread: Clippers -10
  • Over/Under: 233
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBA TV

Without Jaren Jackson Jr., I just don’t know who on the Grizzlies can assume the burden of doing everything that doesn’t get recorded in the box score.

Jackson’s mere presence in the paint was arguably the biggest reason why Memphis was able to plant its flag on the 8-seed, and with him out for an extended period of time now, it is going to be open season for opponents getting to the rim. Jackson is one of those very few unique talents in the league who can play AND guard positions 1-5.

While Ja Morant gets the lion’s share of the real estate on the Twitter timelines, Jackson remains arguably the most important part of this roster. Yes, I know his on/off stats and how the Grizzlies are technically four points better when he’s NOT on the floor, but let’s not forget Morant was out at the beginning of the season as well.

Jackson’s absence will be significant, and it starts tonight in L.A., where the Grizz face a Clippers team fresh off a pathetic, lackluster performance at home vs. the Sacramento Kings. They will be out for blood, and the Grizzlies staying in L.A. the entire weekend after their game vs. the Lakers doesn’t help, either.

The Clippers will take this game personally, one of the few times per month they actually do so, and they’ll unleash the defense that has made them favorites to win the NBA title.

The Clippers win and do it early. Expect the fourth quarter to be a bench affair, and thus produce a lopsided score. Blowouts = unders. Famous last words.

The PICK: Under 233

Moore: Bucks at Wizards

  • Spread: Bucks -13.5
  • Over/Under: 243.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

I’ve been constantly taking the Bucks in choice spots because they’re a juggernaut and it feels great to bet on them. I’m fading them here. A few things:

  • The Wizards are a jump-shooting, high-variance team. Those teams have a great chance vs. the Bucks, who give up 3s at a top-five rate. If you have shooters everywhere, you can put up a big number and hang a little bit with the Bucks. Not like eight points … but a little bit.
  • The Bucks this season are 10-9 ATS as a double-digit favorite on the road vs. East teams, by far one of the worst splits ATS for this beast of a team.
  • The Wizards are on a back-to-back. On rest disadvantage this season, the Wizards are 7-2 ATS.
  • The Wizards are also 9-7 ATS as a home underdog this season and 2-1 as a double-digit home dog.
  • Washington has lost by more than 13 this season just four times, with two of those to Portland and Minnesota, so it’s not just dominant teams.

The number is great here. If it’s 11, I’m staying away. But at 13.5, I like Washington.

The PICK: Wizards +13.5

John Ewing: Heat at Cavaliers

  • Spread: Heat -6
  • Over/Under: 222.5
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET

The Cavaliers are 15-41 and have nothing to play for down the stretch. Their best option is to tank for draft position. Knowing some franchises are incentivized to lose creates a betting opportunity for savvy gamblers.

Historically, it has been profitable to fade teams that aren’t giving it their all after the All-Star break (approximately Game 55 or later). The optimal situation is as home underdogs.

A $100 bettor following this system would have returned a profit of $8,751 since 2005.

Cleveland has the worst record in the East and opened as six-point underdogs at home to Miami. A majority of tickets are on the Heat, and history suggests the public is right to fade the Cavs.

The PICK: Heat -6

Brandon Anderson: Hawks at 76ers

  • Spread: 76ers -8.5
  • Over/Under: 229
  • Time: 7 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBA TV

The 76ers have been nearly invincible at home, of course, but this team went all-in on a five-man lineup and they could be missing 40% of that lineup right now with Ben Simmons out and Tobias Harris questionable. And that’s not even mentioning the poor Al Horford fit. Exactly how good is a team with two centers, Josh Richardson and a bunch of replacement players? Philadelphia hopes it won’t have to find out for too long.

The Hawks aren’t good, but they also aren’t getting blown out. They’ve lost by double digits only once in the last eight games, and they actually beat these Sixers — with Simmons — less than a month ago.

Trae Young was a monster that game, and he could have another big game without Simmons to check him on defense. Philly likely starts Shake Milton and Glenn Robinson III in this game, and that’s before you get to the bench guys. I’m just not sure the gap between these teams is this huge right now.

The PICK: Hawks +8.5

Mears: Grizzlies at Clippers

  • Spread: Clippers -10
  • Over/Under: 233
  • Time: 10:30 p.m. ET
  • TV: NBA TV

I love the Grizzlies. It’s difficult to find a more exciting young core than Ja Morant, Jaren Jackson Jr. and Brandon Clarke.

But they have a brutal schedule over the last part of the year and will really have to play well to hold onto the 8-seed in the playoffs, especially with Zion Williamson and the Pelicans surging right now.

What will make things even more difficult during this tough schedule is that Jackson Jr. is out for at least the next two weeks.

The data on him isn’t crazy or anything: With him off the floor, the Grizzlies have actually been 4.1 points per 100 possessions better than with him on. But that’s mostly due to starters/bench splits — the guys with the highest on/off differentials are Josh Jackson, De’Anthony Melton and Brandon Clarke.

What he does help is the Grizzlies’ shot profile. With him on the floor, the Grizzlies have shot 6.4% more 3-pointers, which is the highest differential on the team and one of the highest in the league. They just get more efficient looks with him out there spacing, and that’s a question mark tonight.

That’s especially true given the Grizzlies’ recent shot profile even with Jackson Jr. playing. Since Feb. 1, they have the fourth-worst expected field goal percentage on account of them having a league-low 23.4% 3-point rate. They’re 29th in actual eFG% at just 50.1%.

And if the Clippers are vulnerable defensively anywhere this year, it’s beyond the arc. They’re bottom-10 in 3-point rate allowed but have done a great job at limiting shots at the rim. Further, they have the second-best FG% allowed on mid-range jumpers. The Grizzlies will try their best to take shots at the rim and likely a bunch of mid-rangers, and that’s exactly where the Clips’ strength is.

Meanwhile, the Clips are really struggling right now, losers of three straight. The biggest issue in that span has been the offense, which I’m not actually that surprised about. They’re integrating both Marcus Morris and Reggie Jackson into the mix, and both guys can be ball-stopping, high-usage players. I think they’re both pretty overrated anyway.

The Grizzlies like to play fast — both teams do actually — but with the Clippers at full strength, their offensive struggles with the new guys and Jackson Jr. out for Memphis, I think there’s a bit of value on the under here.

The PICK: Under 233

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