The sweep is officially off the table. After the San Antonio Spurs righted the ship and snapped the Knicks’ historic 13-game postseason winning streak at Madison Square Garden on Monday, the NBA Finals shift into a pivotal Game 4 tonight in the Big Apple.
New York still holds a 2-1 series advantage, but the momentum has shifted. A rejuvenated San Antonio squad will look to build on the tactical adjustments that unlocked Victor Wembanyama last game, aiming to tie the series up before heading back to Texas.
Continue below for our NBA Finals Game 4 best bets for Spurs vs. Knicks on Wednesday, June 10.
NBA Finals Game 4 Best Bets
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Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs. Knicks Player Prop Bet
De'Aaron Fox has only cleared this line once in the series, but the underlying numbers say a breakout might be on the horizon.
Fox has posted 5, 5, and 8 assists over the first three games, racking up an impressive 36 potential assists.
The only reason his traditional assist numbers aren't sky-high is because the team's overall shooting has been brutal.
The turning point for this prop is how San Antonio’s offensive process adjusted in Game 3. They finally stopped letting Victor Wembanyama settle for perimeter jumpers and forced him down to the block.
Wemby's average shot distance has shrunk every game—from 17 feet, to 13 feet, down to just 11 feet last night. Getting the big man dunks and layups right at the rim heavily benefits Fox’s playmaking.
Fox is the "adult in the room" for the Spurs' offense. Unlike Stephon Castle, who can play a bit sloppy, Fox is a traditional floor general who settles things down and gets them into halfcourt sets.
I'm taking the Over 5.5 at -135, and I also recommend playing the alternate 8+ assists escalator at +230 on FanDuel.
Pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 5.5 Assists (-140)
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Spurs vs. Knicks First Quarter Spread Escalator
The market is missing the boat on this line, and it almost feels too easy.
We have watched the same script play out in all three games of this series: the Spurs' defense locks in early, their starting unit executes a beautiful offensive process, and they build a big lead. Then the second quarter hits, the bench staggers come in, and the Knicks annihilate them.
Just look at the first-quarter margins for the Spurs so far this series: +8, +9, and +11. They are destroying New York in the opening 12 minutes before giving it all back in the second quarter (where the Knicks are +1, +13, and +18).
Why the oddsmakers aren't pricing in this trend is beyond me. I'd rather take the safety net of Spurs 1Q +0.5 to cash on a win or a tie. But, because the Spurs have cleared the alternate margins in all three games, I'm also riding the escalator at bet365.
I am targeting Spurs 1Q -2.5 (+165), Spurs -5.5 (+320), and taking a flyer on the Spurs to win the first-quarter by a margin of 11+ (+1000). Let's just bet the script.
Pick: Spurs First Quarter +0.5 + Escalator
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Spurs vs. Knicks Over/Under Pick
By Matt Moore
Following two defensive gridlocks in Games 1 and 2, Game 3 saw a market correction, clearing the total by 11 points.
Heading into Game 4, this handicap hinges on one question: Do you trust the Knicks' offensive fixes or their defensive adjustments more?
While San Antonio will undoubtedly counter, their tweaks will likely be confined to the offensive side of the ball.
If the Spurs tighten up defensively, it will generate more live-ball turnovers and transition opportunities.
However, don't expect their half-court offense to find another gear—their Game 3 scoring explosion was already tracking at their absolute ceiling.
Instead, the value lies in backing New York's defensive response. Here is why the tactical edge points back toward a lower-scoring environment:
- Taking Away the Corners: The Knicks are executing better perimeter discipline, steadily choking out corner three-point looks after giving up a staggering 15 of them in the series opener.
- Grounding Wembanyama: While Wembanyama will still float out and hit perimeter jumpers, New York's primary focus will be taking away his easy lob attempts at the rim.
- Expected Player Regression: Castle is due for an offensive comedown after over-performing last game. That regression should provide cushion for a potential bounce-back night from Dylan Harper, who is bound to shoot better than his 5-of-18 performance.
Pick: Under 216.5 (-110)
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Spurs vs. Knicks Prop Bet
I’m backing Landry Shamet to bounce back from a rough Game 3.
Yeah, I know, he went 1-for-7 last game, but the volume is exactly what we want to see—he still got off seven three-point attempts in just 23 minutes.
His minutes dropped slightly last game, but Mike Brown simply won't quit playing Shamet because of the spacing and pedigree he brings to the floor over a pure creator like Jordan Clarkson.
The Spurs' defensive scheme forces them to live with giving up looks to guys like Shamet while they over-index on protecting the paint against Karl-Anthony Towns and Mitchell Robinson.
Shamet will continue to get the minutes and the open looks. I love over 1.5 three-pointers here, and I will also be sprinkling on 3+ Threes (+220).
Pick: Landry Shamet Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-120)
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Spurs vs. Knicks Player Prop Escalator
OG Anunoby has put together an incredible series, and he was very aggressive in Game 3, going 6-of-6 on two-pointers and getting to the charity stripe nine times.
He has figured out the exact physical geometry needed to score against Wemby, using just enough lift to finish under the rim before Wembanyama can close off the play.
If you look into the data and filter out the first two games he played right after returning from his hamstring injury—where he clearly didn't look like himself—the numbers are great.
Outside of those two rusty performances, OG has gone over 15.5 points in 12 of his last 13 playoff games, averaging 21 points per game.
While there’s a bit of juice here at -125 at BetMGM, the line is a full point too low.
If Mikal Bridges isn't hitting open catch-and-shoot threes, he completely vanishes. Meanwhile, OG attacks closeouts, creates contact, and gets to the line.
Give me the standard over, and I'm also riding the escalator up to 20+ Points (+200).
Pick: OG Anunoby Over 15.5 Points (-125) + Escalator
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