The New York Knicks launched one of the most prodigious fourth-quarter comebacks in NBA playoff history, rallying from a 22-point deficit to force overtime and defeat the Cavaliers 115-104 in Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals.
If Game 2 is anything like the opener, Knicks fans and even neutrals won't have to worry too much about getting their money's worth. Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Props for Cavaliers vs Knicks Game 2
- 3-Point Leader: Donovan Mitchell (+264) / Sam Merrill (+780)
- Rebound Leader: Evan Mobley (+398)
Cavaliers vs Knicks 3-Point Leader: Donovan Mitchell / Sam Merrill
The Cavaliers somewhat mirror the Celtics in their willingness to live and die by the 3-point shot. Boston's average of 46.1 3-point attempts this postseason remains the highest in the league, while Cleveland ranks third with 38 per game.
During the regular season, both teams ranked in the top seven in 3-point attempts, and in the conference finals opener, we saw the Cavs launch 50 3-pointers despite being in control for much of the game before their fourth-quarter collapse.
Thus, if there's one team that's looking to dominate on the perimeter, you'd have to say it's the Cavaliers.
As a result, I'd only look to the Cavaliers roster when it comes to picking a player to finish with the most 3-pointers.
Cleveland's Donovan Mitchell is the favorite at +264 with a implied probability of 22%. Those are fair odds considering my model simulations have Mitchell leading this category 21.5% of the time.
Another option with slightly longer odds is Cleveland's Sam Merrill (+780). Merrill is a career 39.7% 3-point shooter and shot 42.1% during the regular season.
In the playoffs, he's shooting 40% from distance and knocked down three 3-pointers in Game 1. Merrill's book value of 9.1% is only slightly higher than my model's win share of 7.4%.
However, those numbers are still within range to warrant a play on the backup shooting guard.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Donovan Mitchell (+264) / Sam Merrill (+780)
Cavaliers vs Knicks Rebound Leader: Evan Mobley
New York's Karl-Anthony Towns is the odds-on favorite to finish as the top rebounder at -104. After all, his 11.9 rebounds per game are almost two higher than any other player in this series.
However, it was Cleveland's Evan Mobley who finished with the most rebounds (14) in Game 1.
Mobley's standard deviation (σ) of 3.7 is the highest of any player I observed in this matchup when it comes to rebounds.
In other words, he's the player most likely to have spikes in his performance, giving him a chance to out-pip such a heavy favorite like Towns.
Mobley's odds of +398 imply a 16.6% probability. Yet, after running the numbers, he finishes first in my model simulations 19.2% of the time.
While Towns is certainly deserving of having the shortest price, the gap between these two players shouldn't be as big.
Pick: Rebound Leader: Evan Mobley (+398)
