The Oklahoma City Thunder upped their level of physicality and deployed Isaiah Hartenstein to try to slow down Victor Wembanyama in Game 2. Wembanyama finished with just 21 points after dropping 41 in the series opener. It's worth noting that Wembanyama attempted just two free throws compared to 13 in Game 1.
Now, as the series shifts to San Antonio, you can almost guarantee the adjustments will continue for Game 3. Our approach for this preview won't necessarily be to break down these individual matchups. Instead, we'll seek to highlight players that offer the best value in the DraftKings Game Leaders market.
NBA Game Leader Props for Thunder vs Spurs Game 3
- Points Leader: Victor Wembanyama (+242) / Stephon Castle (+1060)
- 3-Point Leader: Julian Champagnie (+441) / Alex Caruso (+594)
Thunder vs Spurs Points Leader: Victor Wembanyama / Stephon Castle
There's no question that the two likeliest scoring leaders in this series are Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Wembanyama. Gilgeous-Alexander bounced back from his 7-of-23 (30.4%) showing in the opener, yielding 24 points, to shoot a more efficient 12-of-24 in Game 2 and lead all scorers with 30.
But even though Gilgeous-Alexander entered this series as the leading scorer, I'm always looking to fade the odds-on favorite.
DraftKings lists SGA's odds to finish with the most points at -155 with an implied value of 52.1%. However, my model simulations project his win share to be closer to 46%, resulting in a projected odds of +117.
In comparison, Wembanyama's odds are +242 with an implied value of 25%. The Frenchman outperforms his odds in my simulations with an expected win value of 34.9%, reflecting odds closer to +186.
Another player capable of having a big performance is San Antonio's Stephon Castle. Castle (20.1 PPG) ranks second on the Spurs in scoring this postseason behind Wembanyama (22.1 PPG).
Although this Spurs team is built around Wemby, the plan has always been to surround him with shooters.
Castle is a multifunctional player who can operate on the perimeter and attack the basket. You need a bit of aggression if you're going to get past this Thunder team, and Castle offers that in abundance for San Antonio.
Should a player manage to pip Wembanyama for top scorer, Castle is a tremendous option at longer odds of +1060.
Pick: Points Leader: Victor Wembanyama (+242) / Stephon Castle (+1060)
Thunder vs Spurs 3-Point Leader: Julian Champagnie / Alex Caruso
Throughout this postseason, I've often alternated between Devin Vassell and Julian Champagnie for most 3-pointers, but every time I pick one, it's the other that goes off for a big game. For example, I tipped Champagnie for Game 2 only to watch Vassell sink 6-of-12 3-pointers.
Vassell's recent performance elevates him as the favorite for Game 3 with odds of +285.
However, this is precisely the time we should look to fade him, considering there are so many legitimate contenders in this field.
Champagnie's odds of +441 are much more enticing despite shooting just 1-for-7 from distance in Game 2. The St. John’s
product remains the team's best 3-point shooter this postseason at 40%.
He also shot an impressive 38.1% during the regular season.
Champagnie's odds have an implied value of 14.8%. Yet his win shares in my model are as high as 17.5%, suggesting his odds should be closer to +472.
Another player that's offering tremendous value is OKC's Alex Caruso. The Thunder guard led all players with six 3-point field goals in Game 1 and went 3-for-4 from beyond the arc in Game 2.
The Spurs have made a conscious decision to rotate their defense to double-team Gilgeous-Alexander, thereby leaving Caruso open on the perimeter.
While Caruso didn't have a great year from beyond the arc (29.3%), he's still a career 36.5% shooter. He also has a history of being a big-game player dating back to his championship run with the Lakers in the bubble.
Caruso also shot 41.1% from distance during the playoffs last year with OKC.
One clear thing is that Caruso will likely continue to get open looks at the rim. For a player with the fourth-shortest odds at +594, the volume should be there to challenge for most 3-pointers.
Pick: 3-Point Leader: Julian Champagnie (+441) / Alex Caruso (+594)
