NBA Injury Report: Betting, DFS Impact of Nets, Knicks Injuries
Photo credit: Kamil Krzaczynski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Spencer Dinwiddie
- The NBA Injury Report details the slate's key injuries and their betting and DFS impact.
- There are two key teams with injuries to analyze on Friday night: the Brooklyn Nets and New York Knicks.
- This piece will detail the impact of the injuries to Spencer Dinwiddie, Rondae Hollis-Jefferson, Emmanuel Mudiay and more.
There are 10 games on Friday with several injuries and questionable players. We’ll analyze one game in this article: the New York Knicks at Brooklyn Nets.
Injuries: Spencer Dinwiddie (thumb) is “questionable” and Rondae Hollis-Jefferson (shoulder) is actually questionable.
Injury background: The Nets have listed Dinwiddie as questionable with a right thumb injury. However, Dinwiddie reportedly tore ligaments in his thumb, and he’s expected to meet a second specialist today or early next week. It’s a disingenuous questionable tag, and don’t expect a positive update.
Hollis-Jefferson left Wednesday’s game early due to a strained left shoulder. Coach Kenny Atkinson added after Thursday’s practice:
“I think they’re doing further check-ups with him. I said it wasn’t bad, but let’s hold off and find out for sure.”
Tonight’s impact: Assuming Dinwiddie’s injury forces him to miss extended time, the Nets will be down to D’Angelo Russell and Shabazz Napier as nominal point guards. It also decreases the chances of Russell being benched in the fourth quarter in favor of Dinwiddie.
Atkinson said of Napier:
“I know we’re gonna need him… I didn’t give him enough minutes [Wednesday] night quite honestly. And I know he’s gonna help us down the line.”
When Caris LeVert (foot), Allen Crabbe (knee), Jared Dudley (hamstring) and Dinwiddie have been off the court, Russell has averaged team-highs of 1.33 DraftKings points per minute, a 30.4% usage rate and a 41.9% assist rate, per the NBA On/Off tool. Russell projects as a solid play against the Knicks.
In the minutes without the previously-mentioned four injured players, the Nets have posted a +6.0 Net Rating, per Cleaning the Glass. Their current starting lineup has produced a +7.2 Net Rating, and they are facing a Knicks team that ranks 26th with a 114.6 Defensive Rating and in the bottom 10 in offensive and defensive rebound rate over the last month.
Centers projected for at least 20 minutes since the beginning of December have averaged a league-best +6.60 DraftKings Plus/Minus against the Knicks, per the Trends tool. Jarrett Allen profiles as a solid cash-game center option, and Ed Davis is more of a cheap punt play. Allen averaged 31.42 DraftKings points in the first three games against the Knicks and Davis supplied 17.33 DraftKings points.
Treveon Graham has taken over the starting forward spot, and he’s averaged 14.75 DraftKings points over the last six games. DeMarre Carroll will likely benefit from additional minutes if Hollis-Jefferson is unavailable, and Atkinson may continue to deploy a nine-man rotation.
The Nets are presently favored by double digits at home for the first time all season. When the Nets have been favored by at least five points at home, Russell has averaged 45.9 FanDuel points and Davis has added a team-high +8.73 FanDuel Plus/Minus in five contests.
The Nets are 4-1 when favored by at least five points at home, and their average margin of victory is 11.25 points. The Knicks are 3-22 in their last 25 games, losing on the road by an average of 16.17 points over that span. They possess the second-lowest road Net Rating in the last 25 games at -14.1.
Knicks G Emmanuel Mudiay is questionable.
Injury background: Mudiay missed Thursday’s practice due to a left shoulder injury.
Tonight’s impact: Mudiay has started 32 straight games, and while his usage has increased, the Knicks’ Net Rating has nosedived (from Jonathan Macri):
- Nov: 15 games, -3.3 Net Rating, 20.3% usage
- Dec: 14 games, -8.2 Net Rating, 25.5% usage
- Jan: 6 games, -20.5 Net Rating, 28.5% usage
When Mudiay has been off the court since the beginning of December, Tim Hardaway Jr. has led the Knicks with a 28.5% usage rate. However, he’s been playing with plantar fasciitis since mid-December and has exceeded 34 DraftKings points once since the beginning of December.
Allonzo Trier failed to supply at least 19 FanDuel points in his first nine games after missing two weeks with a hamstring injury, but over the last three games he looks much healthier and has averaged 35.2 FanDuel points.
Frank Ntilikina became the backup point guard four games ago after a string of DNP-CDs, but no one’s role is permanent under coach David Fizdale. Ntilikina has shared the court with Trier, a noted isolationist, yet Ntilikina has led the Knicks with 4.8 assists per game over the last four games with Trier ranking second at 3.5.
Ntilikina has had his best games against the Nets, averaging 24.96 DraftKings points per game in seven career chances. It’s a figure he’s met twice since the beginning of December. He costs no more than $3,800 on DraftKings and FanDuel, and he’s slated to have a larger role if Mudiay can’t play.
Enes Kanter has averaged 47.44 DraftKings points in his last four games against the Nets. However, he was a DNP-CD on Wednesday, and it’s unclear if he’s permanently out of the rotation or if Wednesday was an outlier due to the matchup against the Rockets. His ownership should be near an all-time low following Wednesday, and even if Fizdale confirms Kanter will start, no one will believe it.
According to Mike Vorkunov of The Athletic, minutes for the Knicks veterans will come at a premium:
Fizdale held a meeting with Courtney Lee, Lance Thomas, Trey Burke and Kanter prior to the team’s West Coast trip late last month and told them that the team would be prioritizing development and scaling back their minutes.
If Mudiay is unable to play, Burke may re-enter the rotation and perhaps start. His salary has dropped to $3,500 on DraftKings, and he’ll be nothing more than a dart throw in tournaments.