Warriors vs. Spurs Odds

The Golden State Warriors continue a four-game tour of Texas with the start of a back-to-back set against the San Antonio Spurs on Monday night.

The matchup is one of the flashy Warriors against an unspectacular yet effective Spurs team. Golden State is led by a two-time former MVP, while San Antonio is enjoying a solid season using players whose names casual NBA fans might not be able to recognize.

The Spurs are 13-10 (they have the same record against the spread), though, and could prove a tough out come the playoffs given how well-coached they are.

For now, let's see which team has the edge entering their first encounter on Monday night.

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Golden State Warriors

The Warriors’ metrics over their last 10 games would indicate they are unlucky to have just gone 5-5 in that stretch. Golden State entered Sunday’s action ranked seventh in Offensive Rating, 10th in Defensive Rating and sixth in Net Rating during that span. Their 67.4% assist percentage ranked second in that stretch. The offense is finding its groove and the Warriors have posted three 130-point in the past 10 games.

A big reason for that strong play on offense has been the turnaround of Kelly Oubre Jr., who is finally knocking down shots consistently. After starting the season shooting 35.1% through 16 games, Oubre is shooting 48.4% from the field and 44.4% from beyond the arc on 5.1 attempts per game over his past seven. In that span, he’s averaging 17.4 points.

The biggest reason for the Warriors’ impressive output? Obviously, it’s Stephen Curry.

Curry is averaging 30.9 points per game over his past 12, shooting 52.7% from the field and 47.5% from beyond the arc. He continues to give flashes of the for that made him a two-time MVP winner.

San Antonio Spurs

While the Warriors’ advanced stats say they’ve played well and should be better than .500 over their last 10 games, the Spurs are 6-4 in that stretch and fortunate to be there.

San Antonio ranked 18th in Offensive Rating over its past 10 games, 20th in Defensive Rating and 20th in Net Rating at -1.3.

The Spurs have won five of their past seven games thanks to their depth and balance. They’re fifth in the Western Conference with eight players averaging double-digit points this season, led by DeMar DeRozan at 20.5.

The Spurs will have at least six of those scorers on Monday night. LaMarcus Aldridge is going to miss both games with a hip injury, while Lonnie Walker IV missed Saturday’s game against the Rockets due to illness. It is apparently a stomach bug, so there’s a chance he’s back for Monday night.

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Warriors-Spurs Pick

The Spurs are simply finding ways to win this season, while the Warriors are playing well and waiting for the results to go their way.

Golden State’s losses over the past eight games have come against the Jazz, Suns, Celtics and Mavericks. Three of those teams are ranked in the top four of their respective conference, and the other has an MVP-caliber star in Luka Doncic.

The biggest concern for me is that 32.7% of the Spurs’ shots have come from beyond the arc this season, which ranks 28th  in the NBA, and they’re 16th in the NBA in shooting 36.1% from 3-point land.

If Golden State comes out firing, I’m not confident that San Antonio will be able to keep up.

That’s what happened in these teams’ first matchup on Jan. 20. Golden State was up 12 points after the first quarter and 19 at halftime. The Warriors slowed down, but it was too late for the Spurs who simply couldn’t match their firepower. The Warriors weren’t even at their best in that game, although most teams would take percentages like 50.5% from the field and 39.5% from beyond the arc.

I’ll play this all the way across to Warriors -2.5. I think Golden State wins outright to start this two-game mini series. If the Warriors remain underdogs, I’d take the plus odds on their moneyline.

Pick: Warriors +1.5