The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 12-game slate this Wednesday, and I've locked in a total of four picks spanning two of tonight's contests — including bets for Thunder vs. Celtics and Rockets vs. Timberwolves.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, picks and expert bets for Wednesday, March 25.
NBA Picks, Predictions for Wednesday, March 25
  |   |
Thunder vs. Celtics Spread & Total Predictions
Thunder -2.5
The Celtics are a great team. They have a legitimate chance of winning the NBA title. However, they cannot be only three-point home underdogs to the Thunder.
The line for this game based on market ratings at Inpredictable.com with a standard 2.5-point homecourt advantage is Thunder -4. So, right off the bat we’re starting low.
The gap between these two teams is 3.9 points per 100 possessions, schedule-adjusted, at DunksAndThrees.com — which would give the Celtics a slight edge vs. the number with Boston homecourt.
However, I make the spread for this game Thunder -5 — and I’m a lot more comfortable with that number.
The reality is that the Thunder have the defensive wings to disrupt Boston’s offense, which is also in a bit of a shaky place.
Since Jayson Tatum’s return, the Celtics’ offense has just a 114 offensive rating in his minutes.
The Celtics are still trying to figure out how to play with Tatum, and Oklahoma City's defense is highly disruptive to wing-centric offenses because of the depth of their perimeter defenders.
Boston is having a great season… but hasn’t beaten great teams.
The Celtics are 6-14 SU vs. teams with a top-10 point differential per CleaningTheGlass.com, with a 28th-ranked spread differential of -3.3.
The Celtics have struggled when they face teams in their weight class, which makes sense. Their combination of player development and coaching to maximize efficiency gives them a huge edge vs. the rank and file teams — but the best squads tend to get the better of them, and Oklahoma City gets the better of everyone.
Now, the Thunder own an even worse spread record vs. those top teams; -4.9 spread differential, 29th in the league. However, this number is already showing a great deal of faith in the Celtics.
The Thunder are fully healthy and have more versatility this season thanks to Ajay Mitchell and Jared McCain.
They remain elite at shutting off the rim, and while Boston does take a lot of threes and the Thunder give up a high amount, Boston isn't quite as good at converting them this season (13th in 3-point percentage).
The Celtics never turn the ball over, and neither do the Thunder. Oklahoma City is an elite turnover-creating defense, Boston’s is not.
The Thunder will likely be able to create more turnovers for easy scores than Boston will be able to in this game.
The Celtics are solid and up for the challenge, but Oklahoma City is simply too good.
I trust my rating that puts this spread closer to Thunder -5.
Boston is great, but nobody is as good as the Thunder. I’ll lay the points with OKC.
Over 217.5
Two elite defenses get together, which means the offense will game-plan more.
I project this total slightly above the number at 218.9.
The pace scares me; Boston ranks dead last in pace this season — but the efficiency from both teams should be high.
I’ll trust shooters to make shots for one team or the other, which should send this game Over the total.
Picks: Thunder -2.5, Over 217.5
| |
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Spread & Total Picks
Timberwolves +1.5
No Anthony Edwards, which is obviously a huge deal.
You know what’s also a huge deal? The Rockets have not covered the spread in a single game in the month of March.
Houston is also 24th in ATS differential against top-10 point differential teams, while the Wolves are +1.8.
The Wolves get to be the scrappy underdogs in a must-win spot here without their best player, but with a favorable matchup.
The Wolves are a three-point team, and without Edwards, they can still get to those shots, especially in the Naz Reid minutes.
The Rockets will have to choose between putting Alperen Sengun on Reid and having Jabari Smith guard Julius Randle, or putting Sengun on Randle and getting stretched out.
Either way, those two guys will have chances to hit some threes in this game.
Houston’s offense is horrific, especially late in games.
If this is a tight game late, I’ll take my chances with Ayo Dosunmu and Bones Hyland — but especially Jaden McDaniels, who is having an incredible season.
The Wolves are well-equipped to guard the Rockets’ post-up actions with Sengun because so much of their build was to stop and counter Nikola Jokic.
The Wolves can also guard Kevin Durant with McDaniels; a physical, long defender who will at least make KD work.
I’m expecting a total team effort, especially from behind the arc for the Wolves in an upset bid.
Over 233.5 (Lean)
I have a slight lean to the Over, but don’t love that angle without Edwards and with how Houston has played offensively in tight games.
I’ll stay away, but the three-point rate I’m expecting alone would give value on the Over, and both teams will look to run to beat the opponent from setting up their elite halfcourt defense.
Pick: Timberwolves +1.5, Over 223.5 (Lean)
| |
