NBA Player Prop Bets: 6 Picks for Bam Adebayo, Jrue Holiday, More (Wednesday, Jan. 26)

NBA Player Prop Bets: 6 Picks for Bam Adebayo, Jrue Holiday, More (Wednesday, Jan. 26) article feature image

Chris Schwegler/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Bam Adebayo #13 of the Miami Heat.

  • With a 10-game slate in the NBA, Brandon Anderson went above and beyond for you, the bettor.
  • Using the Action Labs Player Props tool, he has found value with six picks in the props market.
  • Check out his best plays for Wednesday night and detailed breakdowns below.

Tomorrow night, we'll find out the 10 starting All-Stars for this year's All-Star Game, and you can expect the usual stars to make their appearances. Giannis Antetokounmpo, Kevin Durant, LeBron James, and Steph Curry will no doubt be among the voting leaders.

Two names that won't be announced tonight but are absolutely All-Star caliber players with their contributions to top East teams are Jrue Holiday and Bam Adebayo. These two guys play elite defense and do the little things that make good teams great, and it's no coincidence that their teams represented the East in the NBA Finals the last two seasons. Tonight we're playing props for both Holiday and Adebayo.

We'll be using the Action Labs Player Prop tool to compare our NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks. Below, I have laid out three prop-bets that I'm playing, the case for each bet and the best books to find odds on those player props.

NBA Player Props & Picks

Jrue Holiday, Over 5.5 Assists (-120)

Bucks vs. CavaliersBucks -4
Time | TV7 p.m. ET | NBA League Pass
Best BookDraftKings

Jrue Holiday is back after missing two weeks injured, and it looks like he should be a full go for a big game tonight against the surprising Cavs.

Holiday came off the bench in his first two games back, playing 21.7 and then 26.9 minutes as Milwaukee took things cautiously. But he started his last time out and played 32.1 minutes, and now it's been four days since that game, so we should get plenty of minutes tonight.

Remember, this is a key game! Cleveland is right there in the division race, and the Cavs have been awesome defensively so points won't be easy to come by. Normally that might make me shy away from an assists prop like this.

But this line is way too low. Holiday has gone over 5.5 assists in 21 of his 33 starts this season, hitting this over 64% of his starts. And it's not like his passing is going anywhere. Per NBA Advanced Stats, Holiday is actually averaging 11.3 potential assists over these last three games. That would typically put him right at this 5.5 dimes number at usual conversion rates, but his teammates have shot poorly so he's been at only 3.3 APG instead.

And remember, that's in under 27 minutes per game! In Holiday's last 20 games before he missed these two recent weeks, he was averaging 7.4 APG, and I think that's closer to where this line should be. That means alternate overs might be in play too here, since he had at least eight dimes in eight of those 20 games (40%) and double digits in four of them (20%).

In a tight game against a tough defense, I'll stick with the traditional over. This line should be at least 6.5 and maybe 7.5, but the injury and bad teammate shooting lately is giving us a nice discount.

We project Holiday at 7.1 assists and rate this a 10 out of 10. I'll play to -150.

Bam Adebayo, Over 15.5 Points (-105)

Knicks vs. HeatHeat -5.5
Time | TV7:30 p.m. ET | ESPN
Best BookBetMGM

It's absolutely wild that the Miami Heat are the top team in the East right now. The Heat are 30-17 and rank third in the NBA in Offensive Rating and eight on defense, and they have the best net rating in the entire East, per Basketball Reference.

All of that wouldn't be too shocking for a roster this talented, until you look at who's actually been playing for this team. Jimmy Butler has been awesome but has missed 18 games. Kyle Lowry has missed eight and yet to really find his groove in Miami. Likely Sixth Man of the Year, Tyler Herro, has missed nine.

And then there's Adebayo, who has yet to get going this season, in part because he's missed 25 games and played only 22. He missed all of December and the first half of January, and he hasn't been his usual self when on the court.

But he's back now and looking good over these past four games, immediately back into the starting lineup and playing his typical 32 or so minutes per night. You can see a little pep in his step with all this time off, and the numbers bear it out especially on the defensive end, with at least one steal and one block in every game after doing that in only four of his first 18 games this season.

The scoring has also returned. Adebayo has scored at least 14 points in all four games since his return, and he's had 14 or more in 18 of his 22 games. That puts us within one bucket of an over 82% of the time and gives us a great shot at an over for a number that's probably a point or two too low.

We project Bam at 18.9 points, and he's topped that in nearly half his games this season. He's over 15.5 points in 64% of his games this year, and he was over that number in 73% of his games last season. It's just too low, and we're getting a discount while the books adjust to his return to the lineup.

Especially if we get this near even odds, it's a must-play. We rate this a 10 out of 10 and give it an 18% edge in our favor. I'll play to -140, and the Props Tool recommends playing over 16.5 if necessary too.

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Hassan Whiteside, Under 0.5 Assists (+170)

Suns vs. JazzSuns -1.5
Time | TV10 p.m. ET | ESPN
Best BookDraftKings

I have very few hard and fast rules in life, but one of them is this: if you give me plus money to bet against Hassan Whiteside recording an assist in a game of basketball, I will take that bet every single time.

Whiteside has 315 assists in his NBA career. He's 32 years old and has been playing professionally since 2010. Whiteside has played 483 games in his career. He's totaled 12,105 minutes. He even led the league in blocks twice and in offensive rebounds once.

But the man is an absolute black hole as a passer.

I'll do the math for you. Whiteside averages 0.65 assists per game for his career. Notice how it's so low we have to add the hundredths place just to show how low it is? For his career, Whiteside averages an assist every 38.4 minutes. And he's even lower this year at one dime every 44.4 minutes, his lowest rate since 2016 — and that's saying something.

And remember, he is playing basketball with the most talented humans on the planet. You could stand a 7-foot piece of plywood on the court and it would accidentally ricochet more than 0.65 assists per game to some random teammates.

But no, not Hassan Whiteside. This man actively avoids assists at all costs. His career Assist-Turnover Rate is 0.43. In other words, he has more than twice as many turnovers for his career as assists. The dude literally had six dimes his first three seasons in the league across 67 games. SIX!

So here's the script tonight: Rudy Gobert is out, so Hassan Whiteside is starting. That means big minutes, and it means we actually get a chance to bet against Whiteside. And because this man has miraculously recorded in assist in three of his four Jazz starts — he had two last game — we're getting plus juice to bet on the donut.

And we are betting on that donut.

I want it. I need it. I will hate watch every second rooting against human achievement and accidental ricochet assists. Give us that donut, Hassan. I'll play at any plus number.

Bonus Prop Bets

  • Nic Claxton, Under 9.5 REB + AST (-105 DraftKings): Claxton made his return last night after missing two weeks. He came off the bench behind Day'Ron Sharpe, and this line anticipates him starting and playing big minutes but it's still too high. He's gone under 9.5 rebounds and assists in 17 of 21 games (81%), and he's under in eight of his 10 highest-minutes games too. Just too high of a line.
  • DeMar DeRozan, Under 1.5 3-Pointers (-250 DraftKings): Sure the Bulls are crazy shorthanded right now and need anything from DeMar they can get, but this is a goofy line. DeRozan went 3-for-3 behind the arc on November 26. Since then, he's attempted 23 treys in 22 games, making five total, and he hasn't made one since New Year's. He's under all but one of those games, a 95% hit rate. That's more than enough to drink the implied 71% juice.
  • Joe Ingles, Over 1.5 3-Pointers (-145 DraftKings): Poor Ingles is having the worst shooting season of his career at just 35% on 3s, almost 10% below his blistering pace last year. But he's still getting up volume, 7.0 attempts per game the last three outings with Donovan Mitchell out, and he's a career 41% shooter. If Spida is out again and we get seven shots and only need two makes from a 41% shooter, we have to like our chances, ice cold or not. It's just math.

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