Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Tuesday: Will Danny Green Drop 10 Points?
Benny Sieu-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Milwaukee Bucks forward Khris Middleton (22, left) and Toronto Raptors shooting guard Danny Green (14, right)
- Chris Raybon sees value on one NBA player prop in particular for Tuesday night.
- He breaks down how he is betting the over/under on the points prop for Raptors SG Danny Green.
The player prop highlighted below is for Game 4 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Tuesday night:
- Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors: 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)
As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 12:45 p.m. ET. View live odds here.
Raptors SG Danny Green
THE PICK: Under 9.5 Points (-135)
Ahead of Game 1 of this series, I pointed out that the Bucks’ league-high in 3-point attempts allowed per game during the regular season is deceiving; they allow poor shooters to fire away, but are far more stingy against players like Green, who knocked down a splashy 45.5% of his 3s during the regular season.
While the struggle has been real for Green this postseason — he’s down to 35.3% from three (and 34.3% overall) — the Bucks have stayed true to form, allowing him to get off just 6.7 field goal attempts in 30.4 minutes per game, a significant drop-off in usage from his regular-season average of 7.9 shots in 27.7 minutes. The result: Green is averaging just 5.7 points per game, which is even lower than his already below-the-norm regular-season mark of 7.0 against Milwaukee.
A side effect of all of this has been Green losing minutes to Norman Powell; Green played just 21.8 minutes in Game 2 and would have likely played roughly the same amount in Game 3 had Powell and Kyle Lowry not been in foul trouble and had the game not gone to double overtime.
Our NBA Player Models have Green projected for 6.96 points in 25 minutes tonight, earning this prop a perfect 10 rating in bet quality from our props tool (59% win rate this season).
Green has scored 8 or fewer points in 10-of-15 postseason games, so the under should have value down to 8.5 (-200).
I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there.