Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Wednesday: Will Danny Green Drop 11 Points?

Raybon’s Favorite NBA Prop for Wednesday: Will Danny Green Drop 11 Points? article feature image

John E. Sokolowski-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured:Toronto Raptors shooting guard Danny Green (14)

  • Chris Raybon sees value on one NBA player prop in particular for Wednesday night.
  • He breaks down how he is betting the over/under on the points prop for Raptors SG Danny Green.

The player prop highlighted below is for Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals on Wednesday night:

  • Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks: 8:30 p.m. ET (TNT)

As a reminder, our FantasyLabs NBA Player Props Tool leverages our projections against odds offered at various sportsbooks and grades each prop on a scale of 1 to 10. All odds as of 2 p.m. ET. View live odds here.

THE PICK: Under 10.5 Points (-120)

The Bucks allowed a league-high 36.3 3-point attempts per game during the regular season, but thinking they simply coax every player into firing away from deep is misleading; the Bucks want poor shooters to take 3s, and tend to limit attempts for players like Green.

During the regular season he averaged 5.4 attempts from 3 and 10.3 points in 27.7 minutes per game overall, but just 2.8 attempts and 7.0 points in 29.2 minutes in four games against the Bucks.

Nikola Mirotic entering the starting lineup for the Bucks kicks Khris Middleton to the 2, and Middleton’s length could pose problems for Green in terms of getting his shot off.

Our NBA Player Models have Green projected for 8.3 points in 34.0 minutes tonight, earning this prop a perfect 10 rating in bet quality from our player props tool (59% win rate this season).

Green has been held under double figures in 7-of-12 (58.3%) games this postseason, so the under should have value down to 9.5 (-140).

I usually throw a few more prop picks in the Action Network App throughout the night as I do more research and lineup news trickles in, so be sure to follow me there.