Tuesday’s Best NBA Player Prop Bets: Can Mike Conley Fix His Rebounding Woes?
Jeff Swinger-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Utah Jazz guard Mike Conley (10).
- Tuesday's eight-game NBA slate features three valuable player prop bets.
- This piece will focus on Utah Jazz G Mike Conley, Hawks F De'Andre Hunter, Heat G Kendrick Nunn.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Tuesday at 2 p.m. ET and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150). No strings attached. No rollover required.
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three of the slate’s eight games:
- Detroit Pistons at Miami Heat: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Atlanta Hawks at Denver Nuggets: 9:00 p.m. ET
- Brooklyn Nets at Utah Jazz: 9:00 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Jazz PG Mike Conley
THE PICK: Under 5.5 rebounds (-148)
It’s been a tough start to Mike Conley’s Jazz career. He finally started hitting a few shots the last couple games, but Conley’s numbers are way down across the board at 14.4 points, 2.5 rebounds, and 3.9 assists a game.
Those rebounds are near a career low, and Conley’s 6.5% defensive rebounding percentage is the lowest of his career. Utah is already a good defensive rebounding team — turns out they don’t need Conley’s help.
Conley has grabbed fewer 5.5 rebounds in nine of 10 games this season, and he’s at two or below in half of them. Even his one over was just six boards. That’s why the juice on this one is already -148, but you can play it all the way to -200 if you like.
Hawks F De’Andre Hunter
THE PICK: Under 9.5 points (+100) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
If you just check Hunter’s per game averages, this line makes sense. He’s at 8.9 points per game, and with John Collins out, maybe Hunter gets to play a few more minutes. The difference here is between average and median.
Hunter is averaging 8.9 points, but his median scoring game is just six. He has four games of four points, and his scoring is almost entirely three-point dependent at this point of his career.
His points have also spiked with an increased minutes load, like in the overtime game in Portland his last time out. Hunter’s three highest scoring games have come in his three games over 30 minutes. Fade a big minutes night and hope he doesn’t hit a couple threes, and Hunter should hit. All the better at +100 right now.
Our projections have Hunter at 7.4 points, which is actually above his median. All three plays tonight are unders rated 10 on our tool, but this is the best bet on the board. Bet this one up to -130.
Heat G Kendrick Nunn
THE PICK: Under 13.5 points (-110) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
It looks like the Kendrick Nunn train is finally making a few stops. Nunn was on fire to start the season, averaging 22.4 points a game in his first five games as a pro.
But everything has been different in November. His minutes have dropped from 31.6 to 24.4 per game, and his field goal attempts have plummeted from 17.0 to 11.0. It’s probably not a surprise, then, that Nunn’s scoring has dropped too, just 9.3 points per game in four November games.
Miami is shorthanded against Detroit with Justise Winslow, Dion Waiters, and Derrick Jones Jr. out, but Jimmy Butler has absorbed a lot of that, and it looks like he’s absorbed most of Nunn’s early superpowers too.
Nunn has been under 13.5 in four straight, and we project him at 10.6 points so there’s some margin for error here. This looks playable up to -150 as needed.