Monday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 20): Fade LeBron James on the Glass?
Allen Berezovsky/Getty Images. Pictured: LeBron James (23) of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Monday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from three games:
- Los Angeles Lakers at Boston Celtics: 7:30 p.m. ET on TNT
- San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns: 9 p.m. ET
- Indiana Pacers at Utah Jazz: 9 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Lakers SF LeBron James
THE PICK: Under 8.5 rebounds (-139)
I have the utmost respect for LeBron. He’s playing in his 17th season — and we’re talking about grueling seasons with tons of playoff minutes — and he’s still one of the best players in the league. He might even be THE best player in the league. The guy is that good.
I don’t like betting against him often, but this line seems a bit inflated. LeBron has pulled down just five boards or fewer in each of his past three games, and those were with Anthony Davis out of the lineup. Davis will be back in action tonight, and LeBron’s matchup vs. the Celtics is not ideal. They rank in the top half of the league in rebound rate and bottom half in pace.
This line is already juiced up a bit, but I think it holds value up to -150.
Suns C Deandre Ayton
THE PICK: Over 10.5 rebounds (-139)
Ayton has played in only 12 games this season, but his production in those contests suggests this line is too low. He’s grabbed at least nine rebounds in every game this season, and he’s grabbed at least 11 in eight of them. Overall, he’s averaged 12.3 rebounds per game despite an average of just 31.3 minutes.
That number should increase as the season progresses. He’s logged at least 34.8 minutes in his past two contests, and that bodes well for his rebounding chances moving forward. He’s played at least 31.5 minutes in just eight of his first 12 games, but he’s averaged 13.1 rebounds in those contests.
This line doesn’t reflect Ayton’s recent uptick in minutes. I would be willing to play the over on 10.5 up to -175, and I would play the over at 11 or 11.5 at reduced juice as well.
Pacers C Myles Turner
THE PICK: Under 11.5 points (-105)
Turner has seen a pretty drastic reduction in playing time recently. He’s coming off just 19.2 minutes in his last game, and he’s played 25.1 minutes or fewer in each of his past three games. Domantas Sabonis has emerged as the better player right now, and the Pacers have not been willing to play them together as much as the season has progressed.
Turner is going to struggle to score points today barring a large increase in minutes. The Jazz aren’t the same defensive juggernaut as they were in the past, but they still rank ninth in the league in defensive efficiency. Turner also has a brutal individual matchup vs. Rudy Gobert, who ranks first among centers in Defensive Real Plus-Minus (per ESPN).
I’m fine with fading Turner in this matchup. I like the under up to -120.