Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Thursday Dec. 5): Clint Capela Is on Fire
Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Clint Capela
Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.
That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.
Odds as of Thursday afternoon. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.
As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
- Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)
Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.
Tonight’s props come from two of the slate’s four games:
- Houston Rockets at Toronto Raptors: 7:30 p.m. ET on NBA TV
- Phoenix Suns at New Orleans Pelicans: 8:00 p.m. ET
Let’s dive in.
Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Thursday Dec. 5)
Suns PG Ricky Rubio
THE PICK: Over 3.5 rebounds (-110)
Ricky Rubio was awesome to start the season, averaging 13.6 points, 6.3 rebounds, and 8.7 assists over his first 10 games as a Sun. Then Rubio got hurt and his numbers fell off a cliff, particularly his rebounds which have plummeted to just 2.0 boards a game since Nov. 14 and under this total in five straight games.
Tonight presents a good opportunity to get back on track. New Orleans plays at a fast pace, so there should be a lot of shots up and plenty of rebounding opportunities. Both teams are missing their starting center to injury, so those rebounds should spread out.
Rubio went over 3.5 rebounds in nine of his first 10 games, so this is a good buy-low opportunity. You can play Rubio up to -140.
Raptors PG Kyle Lowry
THE PICK: Under 7.5 assists (-118) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
Kyle Lowry finally made his return Tuesday night after 11 missed games, and he apparently didn’t miss a beat. Lowry played almost 41 minutes in his return, his most since the season opener, and put up a season-high 11 assists.
But Lowry was averaging only 6.5 assists before that outburst, with only two other games above this 7.5-assist prop. He’s been getting more help this year from Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet, and he should also see fewer minutes so that he doesn’t strain himself in his return from injury.
Our model projects Lowry at 6.3 assists, right around that season average. This bet is playable up to -135.
Rockets C Clint Capela
THE PICK: Over 13.5 points (+112) [In New Jersey? Bet now at PointsBet]
James Harden isn’t the only Rocket that’s been on fire lately. Did you know Clint Capela has at least 19 rebounds in eight straight games? He’s become a monster, averaging 16.6 points and 20.5 boards during that stretch, and he’s gone over 13.5 points in four of his last five.
Opponents have no choice but to chase after Harden and Russell Westbrook, and Capela is getting more and more easy chances at the rim. All those rebounds don’t hurt either. Capela has nine games this season with at least five offensive boards, and those present quick and easy scoring opportunities. He has 18 offensive rebounds in the past two games alone.
Capela has a tough matchup against Marc Gasol and the Raptors, but Gasol can’t match Capela’s verticality driving to the rim. The juice on this one is too good to be true. Hammer it all the way to -125 if you need to.