Friday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 24): Will Domantas Sabonis Dominate the Boards?

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Friday evening. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

• Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
• Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from four of the slate’s 10 evening games:

• Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
• Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
• Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET
• Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBATV

Let’s dive in.

Pelicans F Zion Williamson

THE PICK: Under 15.5 points (-120)

Williamson was having a quiet start to his pro career, and then he went absolutely nuclear. He racked up 17 points in roughly three minutes in the fourth quarter.

That said, I’m skeptical he’ll be able to duplicate those results today. For starters, his matchup vs. the Nuggets is much more difficult than his previous matchup vs. the Spurs.

He also shot 4-for-4 from 3-point range during that stretch in the fourth quarter, which doesn’t seem repeatable. He shot just 25.0% from 3-point range during the preseason and never made more than three 3-pointers in a game in college.

Williamson played just 18.3 minutes in his first game, and he doesn’t figure to see a large boost in playing time today. I think there’s significant value in the under, and I’d play it up to -150.

Rockets PG Russell Westbrook

THE PICK: Over 8.5 rebounds (-105)

Westbrook has been filling up the stat sheet recently, particularly on the glass. He has pulled down at least nine boards in each of his past four games, and he’s averaged 8.9 rebounds per game during the month of January.

There’s no reason to expect a decrease in production today vs. the Wolves either. They rank just 22nd in team rebound rate, and they also play at the eighth-fastest pace. The Rockets have played at the second-fastest pace in the NBA this season, so this game should feature tons of possessions. The total on this game sits at 234.5 points, which is the top mark on the slate.

Westbrook should have more upside than usual on the glass in this matchup, so I like the over up to -130

Suns PF Dario Saric

THE PICK: Under 8.5 points (-110)

The Suns are in a decent spot today vs. the Spurs, who are nowhere near the same defensive juggernaut that they were during their prime. They rank tied for 24th in defensive efficiency this season.

That said, Saric just isn’t playing enough for the Suns to consistently score the ball. Saric has played 20.4 minutes or fewer in each of his past two games, and he’s coming off just four points in his last contest.

Saric is going to need a hot shooting night to hit the over, and I’m willing to bet against that. I like the under up to -120.

Pacers PF/C Domantas Sabonis

THE PICK: Over 12.5 rebounds (-130)

This line seems pretty reasonable for Sabonis. He’s averaged 12.9 rebounds per game this season, which is tied for the fifth-highest mark in basketball. He’s also grabbed at least 13 boards in five of his past seven games, and the two exceptions were games where he played 28 minutes or less.

Sabonis is in an excellent spot today vs. the Warriors. They rank 29th in offensive efficiency and 26th in team rebound rate, which should result in more opportunities than usual on the defensive glass.

Sabonis should be able to cruise past this number in this matchup as long as he sees his normal workload. I like the over up to -150.