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Friday’s Best NBA Player Props & Betting Picks (Jan. 24): Will Domantas Sabonis Dominate the Boards?


Michael Reaves/Getty Images. Pictured: Domantas Sabonis (11) of the Indiana Pacers.

  • Friday's 10-game evening NBA slate features four player prop bets offering value.
  • This piece will focus on Pelicans F Zion Williamson, Rockets PG Russell Westbrook, Suns PF Dario Saric, and Pacers PF/C Domantas Sabonis.

Betting on props can be one of the easiest ways to build your bankroll. Sportsbooks tend to offer lower limits and take less action on props than they do on games, so they don’t have as much incentive to post an accurate line.

That’s where our Player Prop tool comes in handy. We compare our industry-leading NBA projections to the props posted at a variety of sportsbooks to identify the best plays each day. Each bet is then graded on a scale from 1-10, with 10 being the best possible grade.

Odds as of Friday evening. Check out PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).

How about a little reminder on just how impressively these bets did last season? Props with a Bet Quality of 10 posted a win rate of 60.31%, and props with a Bet Quality of nine won at a 58.82% clip.

As is the case with most sports, betting on unders proved to be more profitable than betting on overs last season:

  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 10: 341-172 (66.47%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 9: 457-273 (62.6%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 8: 898-589 (60.39%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 7: 1447-1086 (57.13%)
  • Unders with a Bet Quality of 6: 1992-1663 (54.95%)

Overall, if you just blind bet every under with a Bet Quality of eight or higher, you would’ve won at a 62.1% clip on more than 2,700 bets.

Tonight’s props come from four of the slate’s 10 evening games:

  • Denver Nuggets at New Orleans Pelicans: 8 p.m. ET
  • Houston Rockets at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
  • Phoenix Suns at San Antonio Spurs: 8:30 p.m. ET
  • Indiana Pacers at Golden State Warriors: 10:30 p.m. ET on NBATV

Let’s dive in.

Pelicans F Zion Williamson

THE PICK: Under 15.5 points (-120)

Williamson was having a quiet start to his pro career, and then he went absolutely nuclear. He racked up 17 points in roughly three minutes in the fourth quarter.

That said, I’m skeptical he’ll be able to duplicate those results today. For starters, his matchup vs. the Nuggets is much more difficult than his previous matchup vs. the Spurs.

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