Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Kyle Kuzma
- Wednesday's seven-game slate features three NBA player prop bets offering value.
- This piece will focus on props for Pistons C Andre Drummond, Suns SF T.J. Warren and Lakers F Kyle Kuzma.
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Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Wednesday’s best props focus on four of the slate’s seven games:
- Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets: 7:30 p.m. ET
- Utah Jazz at Minnesota Timberwolves: 8 p.m. ET
- San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns: 10:30 p.m. ET
- Dallas Mavericks at Los Angeles Lakers: 10:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Pistons C Andre Drummond
The Pick: Over 17.5 points (-114)
I might be pushing my luck with Drummond at this point, but I’m going back to the well one more time.
Drummond has hit the over on his points prop in three straight games and he has a tremendous matchup against the Nets, whom he crushed for 24 points in his first game of the season. The Nets also rank in the bottom 10 in terms of defensive efficiency and have been battered on the glass in their past three games, which plays directly into Drummond’s biggest strength.
Drummond has posted a career-best usage rate of 28.3% this season and should have his way on the interior against the Nets. I’d play this prop up to -150.
Timberwolves SG Andrew Wiggins
The Pick: Over 25.5 combined points, rebounds and assists (-120)
The Timberwolves are going to be without two of their highest usage players today in Jimmy Butler and Jeff Teague. Andrew Wiggins is also questionable, but head coach Tom Thibodeau indicated that he “should be ready” after going through shootaround.
Wiggins was unsurprisingly one of the biggest beneficiaries last season whenever Teague and Butler were off the court. He saw the largest usage bump on the team (+5.6%) and averaged 21.4 points, 5.1 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per 36 minutes. He’s currently projected to play more than 36 minutes in our FantasyLabs NBA Models, so I think there’s some nice value with the over.
Thibs has never been one to take it easy on his players, but there is obviously some risk that Wiggins could be limited today. This prop stops looking like a value around -140.
Suns SF T.J. Warren
The Pick: Under 16.5 points (-114)
Outside of Drummond, it seems like an under kind of day: Sixteen of the top 18 bets in our FantasyLabs Player Prop tool are backing the under.
Most of these teams are close to full strength — with the Timberwolves being the one glaring exception — so it could make sense to short the majority of Wednesday’s players.
Even with Devin Booker out of the lineup, Warren doesn’t figure to be much of a factor for the Suns. He’s played 24.5 or fewer minutes in all but one game this season and is currently projected for just 21.5 minutes in our NBA Models. He did manage to eclipse 16.5 points in his last contest, but he needed to post a usage rate of 31.5% to get there. He’s averaged a usage rate of just 25.3% this season, so he’ll probably see fewer shot attempts against the Spurs.
Warren is a capable scorer, but scoring at least 17 points in roughly 20 minutes of playing time is a big ask for anyone. I like this prop up to -160.
Lakers F Kyle Kuzma
The Pick: Under 5.5 rebounds (-103)
Kuzma has shown an ability to score at the NBA level, but he still has a lot to prove as a rebounder. He currently ranks 11th out of 13 players on the Lakers in total rebound rate, and he has failed to eclipse five rebounds in five of his first seven games.
Kuzma has a difficult matchup on the glass against the Mavericks, who employ one of the best rebounders in the league in DeAndre Jordan. As a result, they’ve jumped from dead last in rebound rate last season to 10th this season.
I like the under here quite a bit. Kuzma has averaged only 5.1 rebounds per 36 minutes this season, and he should see only around 30 minutes in a difficult matchup against Dallas.
I’d play this prop up to -170.