The NBA Cup is back with an excellent slate of games on Friday night, with a total of nine matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for five of tonight's contests, including bets for Heat vs Knicks, Nets vs Magic, and Hornets vs Bucks.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Friday, November 14.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Friday, November 14
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Heat vs. Knicks
It took a lot of restraint to not to take the Heat here.
Bounce-back spot for Miami on the road against the Knicks without Brunson.
But the problem is that for as much offense as the Knicks lose, the defense gets that much better, and that could cause problems for the Heat.
So, I’ll stay away from the side and total and just go with a prop on Mikal Bridges.
Bridges averages four more points per 75 possessions without Brunson since the start of last season.
He’s hit this in six of his last eight game against Miami.
The kicker is that while the Heat play fast, they do so to try and slow you down defensively.
But when you run on them, they are actually 23rd in transition defense.
Guess who leads the Knicks in transition points per game with 3.5 per contest? Mikal Bridges.
Pick: Mikal Bridges Over 17.5 Points (-115)
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Nets vs. Magic
I’m a little scared here.
The Nets have actually taken money, showing that when sharps see value, no spot is too scary for them.
I actually make this line just under the number at Magic -12.4
But this is the Cup. Point differential matters.
Some trends, per KillerSports.com:
- Orlando is 5-0 SU and ATS at home in cup play the last three seasons, with an average margin of victory of 17 points.
- Teams with a winning percentage of less than 30 percent are 0-10 SU in cup play on the road, losing by an average of 16.7 points.
- Their ATS margin in those games is -4.2.
Orlando’s schedule-adjusted numbers are way better than their raw performance; they actually come in at No. 13 schedule-adjusted offensively.
This isn’t just trying to carry through the good vibes of this week after their thrilling game-winner over the Blazers and road win over the Heat; it’s to improve their chances of earning a trip to Vegas.
Even without Paolo Banchero, I’ll lay the points, even if it feels like a trap.
Pick: Magic -13.5
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76ers vs. Pistons
Wait on this to make sure Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren are both playing, as they are questionable coming in after missing the last game.
It’s hard not to like the Pistons here, but the Sixers have been so sneaky-good without a resume that actually looks good, I’m staying away from the spread.
However, based on both preseason prior numbers and in-season data, I do have the Pistons favored by more than a possession.
Here's a trend: Home favorites in Cup games are 71-22 SU (76%, -316 implied odds). They are 8-2 SU this season.
But the one weakness in Detroit’s excellent defense (No. 1 in halfcourt defense this season per Synergy Sports) is that they foul a ton, coming in 30th in opponent free throw rate.
Maxey averages 8.4 free throw attempts per game, by far the highest on the Sixers and twice what the next closest player who is active for this game (Quentin Grimes, 4.2).
Maxey should be able to put up big numbers, especially with the Pistons’ best perimeter defender, Ausar Thompson, still out.
Pick: Tyrese Maxey Over 29.5 Points / Pistons ML (+190)
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Hornets vs. Bucks
Giannis is probable for this one, so he should be back.
This is a matchup of the No. 3 halfcourt offense against the No. 30 halfcourt defense.
The Hornets’ halfcourt offense ranks 13th, and Milwaukee’s halfcourt defense is only 15th.
Both teams are bottom-15 in fastbreak points allowed per 100 possessions.
Here are the Bucks’ point totals from cup play the last three years:
- 146
- 131
- 129
- 126
- 119
- 114 (Magic)
- 110 (Knicks)
- 99 (Raptors)
One more trend for the road: Overs are 5-1 in Bucks home games this season, going over by 10.1 points per game per KillerSports.com
I make this line 244.5, and it’s a best bet for me.
Pick: Over 239.5
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Lakers vs. Pelicans
I’m very close to a spread play on the Lakers -9.5 but home 'dogs in the Cup are 57% ATS, and I make this just under the number at 8.8.
So, I’ll avoid it, but rest assured, I like the Lakers to win this game.
Meanwhile, I project the total at 233.9, and this follows a lot of the same script as Bucks-Hornets.
The Lakers are the No. 4 halfcourt offense going up against the No. 29 halfcourt defense.
But the Lakers struggle in transition, giving up the 7th-most points per possession in transition, and while the Pelicans transition offense doesn’t run enough, they average the 9th-best per possession mark when they do.
The most common game script here is a Lakers laugher with a garbage time over as both players let the end-of-bench guys run up and down the floor.
Pick: Over 227.5
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