The NBA Cup is back with an excellent slate of games on Friday night, with a total of 11 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for 5 of tonight's contests, including bets for Mavericks vs Grizzlies, Bulls vs Bucks, and Thunder vs Kings.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Friday, November 7.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Friday, November 7
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Cavaliers vs. Wizards
I make this line Cavs -17, and they’re just now starting to get back to full health with Darius Garland back (though Max Strus is still a ways off).
An interesting trend based on shot selection: Road favorites of more than six points with fewer made field goals but more made three-pointers: 139-94-4 ( 59.7%) ATS.
So, that sounds confusing.
The way to think of it is that the Cavaliers play slower, but more efficiently, and that efficiency differential pays off.
The biggest problem with the Wizards is that they run too much. They are third in pace, and third in percentage of plays spent in transition. But they are also 29th in transition offense.
When they actually run their stuff? Pretty good! But they don’t do that often.
Meanwhile, guess who’s the No. 1 transition defense coming in? The Cleveland Cavaliers.
I don’t want the combined under despite how much this has been steamed up, because Cleveland could easily drop 140 on the Wizards.
But the only way Washington hangs in this game is if they slow this game down, and if that happens, they’ll go under the team total anyway.
Pick: Cavaliers -13.5, Wizards Team Total Under 113.5
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Raptors vs. Hawks
Since the start of last season when this roster started to come together, the Hawks are 6-3 ATS without Trae Young in the lineup, including 2-1 this season.
The Raptors have been much better since they started to slow things down after a bad start when they were pushing pace.
But Atlanta has a real identity behind Jalen Johnson’s athleticism, and they play better defense on the wings with Young out.
This number has been steamed up from -1.5 to -2.5. I make this right on the number, but I like the spot for Atlanta.
The Hawks have the No. 3 halfcourt defense. They struggle in transition, but I like them to win and cover at home tonight.
Pick: Hawks -2.5
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Bulls vs. Bucks
I just can’t get there on this number.
I think the Bucks are underrated. I think the Bulls are flying high, and it’s a buy-high spot. I think everything in Chicago’s profile screams massive regression.
However, Milwaukee laying more than a possession here is too much.
Even using last season’s numbers, which are very Bucks-favorable, I only come close to this, and the Bulls are much better than last year.
This is an elite defense that limits your 3-point rate, and the Bucks are top-10 in 3-point rate and sixth in percentage.
If you impact that, it limits their effectiveness. I think Chicago hangs.
Pick: Bulls +4.5
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Mavericks vs. Grizzlies
I will continue fading Dallas’ offense until the bleeding stops.
Anthony Davis was upgraded to doubtful, but that typically does not indicate he’s ready to play.
When he goes to questionable, you can adjust for that. If he plays, this number still isn’t dead.
Dallas is 29th in halfcourt offense. Memphis is 25th in halfcourt defense, but the Pelicans are 27th and Dallas still couldn’t score against them.
These two teams are top-10 in pace. So, if they have bad defensive nights, the pace of the game may get push this number over the number on its own.
But I only project these two teams for 52.6 transition points combined, leaving 175 points of halfcourt offense they have to generate in an average 187 possessions, meaning they need a 93.5 offensive rating in the halfcourt on average.
They’re averaging below that defensively.
This is a Cup Game, and Cup Games are better over spots, but I still want to fade both teams’ offense here.
Pick: Under 232.5
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Thunder vs. Kings
This opened at 226.5 somehow, and I was asleep at the wheel.
The Thunder defense is its usual awesome self, but mostly in transition and by creating turnovers. They rank No. 5 in halfcourt defense, which is elite, but not the best in the world.
Meanwhile, Lu Dort is questionable for this one with an injury. Aaron Wiggins is out, which you would think would hurt OKC’s 3-point shooting, but Isaiah Joe has gone over his 3-point prop in four straight games while filling in.
Wiggins is a better defender than Joe, so that actually helps us here.
I project this line at 236.8. So, while we’re chasing steam, I think the opening line was so far off it misses the mark.
The Thunder are playing their third game in four nights, and while they are 18-6 the last two seasons under those conditions, I’m not sure this year's OKC team is as good yet without Jalen Williams. But the over in those games is 14-9-1 (60%).
Pick: Over 232.5
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