The NBA regular season is back in action with a light 6-game slate on Monday night. So, I've locked in picks for five of tonight's contests, including bets for Celtics vs. Pacers, Nets vs. Mavericks, Lakers vs. Kings, and more. Jazz vs Cavaliers, Hornets vs Clippers
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Monday, January 12.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets for Monday, January 12
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Jazz vs. Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are the sixth-best under team at home this season, and the Jazz are 14th in under rate on the road.
Utah is tanking, but they also know that the Cavs are better and should beat them even with the Cavs’ struggles this season.
You’ll notice guys like Lauri Markkanen are available for this game, who they rested vs. Charlotte and Jusuf Nurkic. They can play serious and still lose, which is what they’ll do.
I make this total 242 — still a terribly high number, but not this ridiculous figure. It’s coming down the market. I like it down to 244.
The Cavs are actually a very good pick-and-roll defensive team. The risk is in the Jazz' spot-up shooters going wild, but if they do that, this could still absolutely cruise under.
Let’s also not overcomplicate this: the under in games with a total north of 248 this season is 12-6.
Don’t get me wrong, there will be points. But not enough to go over.
Pick: Under 250.5 (-110)
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Celtics vs. Pacers
The Celtics annihilate bad teams. Boston is 11-3 SU with a +5.6 spread differential against bottom-10 point differential teams.
A very simple rule? Bet Boston after a loss with Mazz. Under Joe Mazzulla, the Celtics are 47-29-1 ATS after a loss in the regular season, including 8-5 ATS this season.
Boston is in a good spot, and I make this line closer to Celtics -7. Indiana just doesn’t have enough offense to keep up here.
Pick: Celtics -5.5 (-115)
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Nets vs. Mavericks
Michael Porter Jr. is back from a “rest” day, as the Nets try and trade him so he doesn’t kill their tank job.
The Nets with MPJ are 6-7 as road 'dogs this season, and 3-2 when the opposing team is under .500.
The Dallas Mavericks, unbelievably, are 7-9 against teams with a bottom-10 point differential, and 26th in spread differential at -3.7 per CleaningTheGlass.com. They are 1-5 ATS and 3-3 SU as a home favorite. They are 4-15 SU without Anthony Davis.
The Nets are playing better basketball and tanked a few games to throw off the scent.
I make the Nets 4-point road favorites against this Mavericks team. That’s how bad Dallas is, and Dallas is good against good teams and awful against bad teams — and the Nets are a really good, bad team.
There is zero reason why this shouldn’t be pick‘em. The Mavericks — without Anthony Davis — are truly that bad, and especially against bad teams.
Pick: Nets Moneyline (+140)
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Lakers vs. Kings
I make this spread Lakers -11 based on power rating, but the trends are super strong here, too.
Under Doug Christie, the Kings are:
- 3-12 SU and ATS on the second night of a back-to-back.
- 2-4 ATS after winning the first game of a back-to-back set.
- 6-9 at home after a win.
The Lakers are great against bad ATS teams, going 11-3 SU and ATS against teams under .500 ATS. They’re also 14-7 ATS when favored more by their average line, which they are here, and 5-4 when favored by more than usual on the road.
The other factor here is the return of Rui Hachimura, a player that won’t register on most people’s radars or move the line significantly. With Rui, the Lakers are 19-8 SU and 16-11 ATS. With Luka Doncic and Rui together, they are 12-9 ATS.
The Kings, despite how bad they are, are still 12-17 ATS, worse than market expectation, when the opponent is an above league-average free-throw attempt team; the Lakers are No. 1 in free-throw rate, surprise, surprise.
I’ll lay the points because I think the impact of Rui — 24th in halfcourt efficiency this season— is underrated in the market and the spot is bad for the Kings. You’ll never feel bad fading the Kings.
Pick: Lakers -9 (-110)
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Hornets vs. Clippers
I project this total at 232.
The Hornets have been an under team on the road; the Clippers have been an under team at home. But the average total in road games for the Hornets with LaMelo Ball is 236. This is 13 points below that.
The Clippers have played better lately, finally, but that’s because of their offense (5th best in the last two weeks) and only 17th on defense.
The Hornets are a higher turnover rate team. When the opponent averages more turnovers than the Clippers, the over is 10-3 in those games this season.
It’s a low pace game, so I get it. But the efficiency for both teams should be high enough for this to go over.
Pick: Over 223.5 (-110)
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