The NBA Cup is back with an excellent slate of games on Monday night, with a total of nine matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for five of tonight's contests, including bets for Wizards vs Pistons, Cavaliers vs Heat, and Pelicans vs Suns.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Monday, November 10.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Monday, November 10
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Wizards vs. Pistons
I make this line -17.5. Yikes, Washington.
I was on the Wizards' over because they’re talented and have signs.
But if you pay attention, here’s the deal: when they slow it down, they’re pretty decent. When they run, they are the worst team in the league.
And the Wizards run a lot…
The Pistons are rolling right now. And you can make an argument this is a letdown spot; the JB Bickerstaff back-to-back trends are not encouraging.
However, the Wizards are trend-proof.
Washington is 7-8 ATS on the road when the opponent is on a back-to-back since 2023-24.
I will go ahead and back the Pistons to keep smacking the Wizards, who are clearly pre-tanking.
They’re going to lose like crazy until January, and then start moving in a positive direction. Their rotations and other decisions track with that.
Pick: Pistons -11.5
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Cavaliers vs. Heat
Miami is 4-0 ATS at home.
I make this line Heat +3.2 on preseason numbers, and actually favored based on in-season figures.
Miami is better in halfcourt offense, defense, and transition offense.
No Bam Adebayo tonight, but the Heat are built on their team structures and can still do what they need to against Cleveland.
Even if Mobley and Allen dominate this matchup, Miami can go small, similar to what the Pacers did last year in the playoffs.
Miami’s legit, even without Bam and Herro. They’ll hang.
Pick: Heat +7.5
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Trail Blazers vs. Magic
My preseason-priors-influenced model likes the Magic a lot (-6.5) because I was high on Orlando and down on Portland.
My non-influenced in-season numbers makes this Magic +1.
The in-season numbers are more reflective of where both teams are at right now.
This is a trend play.
Since the start of last season, when Portland found its defensive identity:
- Portland is 13-8 ATS against teams on a back-to-back, 5-3 on the road.
- Here’s the killer. Portland’s offense is bad. But when they play worse offenses (which Orlando is), when the opponent averages fewer points per game, the Blazers are 11-4 ATS.
I don’t think the Blazers are legit. But I also think Orlando’s in enough offensive disarray for this spot to favor Portland.
Pick: Trail Blazers +2.5
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Bucks vs. Mavericks
The total for this game was steamed up to 231.5 for some reason on Sunday night when I bet it on our Buckets podcast.
Now, reason and logic have come back in to play, and it’s back down to 229.
The Mavericks are the second-worst half-court offense in the league, behind only the Pacers, who are missing what feels like three-fourths of their roster. They simply cannot score.
Dallas has gone over their team total once this season, against the Raptors in an outlier game during a Texas road trip for Toronto.
Anthony Davis has been upgraded to questionable. So, the question is, if Davis raises the offense so much to push this over if he plays.
Davis is not a hub, he can’t make the other players better beyond just drawing defenders.
It’s a back-to-back, so Giannis might sit. But here’s a secret: the Bucks’ halfcourt defense has actually been better with Giannis on the bench.
Now, that’s against bench units, but it proves the Bucks’ defense is fundamentally sound, if not amazing.
You do not have to be amazing to limit the Mavericks.
On the other side, some trends:
- Since 2021, Doc Rivers teams are 15-8 to the under on road back-to-backs.
- 6-2 to the under with Milwaukee.
- Under Rivers, when the Bucks are playing a worse offense than them (fewer points per game than Milwaukee) on the road, the under is 21-14-2 (60%).
I will keep hammering Mavericks' unders until they consistently prove the trend wrong.
Pick: Under 229.5 (-110)
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Pelicans vs. Suns
The Suns are surprisingly decent. They made a starting unit change after the first few games went badly, and the new lineup with Mark Williams starting and Royce O’Neale for offense is +14 raw and +18.5 in non-garbage time.
I make this line Suns -11.
New Orleans keeps showing some spark; they’re 5-4 ATS. But their ATS wins have come against the Mavericks, Hornets, Clippers, and Spurs (SAS was only -4.5 before the market realized how good the Spurs are).
Phoenix’s ATS resume isn’t awesome, either.
This is more than two possessions. But the Pelicans have so much surrender in them.
I like how the Suns’ match up against a Pelicans team without Zion Williamson.
Pick: Suns -8.5
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