The NBA regular season is back with an excellent slate of games on Wednesday night, with a total of 12 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for seven of tonight's contests, including bets for Magic vs Knicks, Suns vs Mavericks, and Hawks vs Kings.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Wednesday, November 12.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Wednesday, November 12
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Bulls vs. Pistons
I make this 230.5, and we’re seeing some steam to the under with it ticking down a little.
The Pistons are the No. 1 halfcourt defense, and have been rock solid on that end.
Cade Cunningham (hip) and Jalen Duren (ankle) are both questionable for this game, and this line has moved to Bulls -1.5 indicating they’ll sit.
If they’re out, I still expect the Pistons defense to be pretty good, but they will struggle offensively against Chicago, who can be a tough defensive team at times.
The Pistons are scoring 100.7 points per 100 possessions without Cade on the floor this season, which is horrendous, but the defense is actually better (mostly because he plays starting lineups).
I’ll bank on a slugfest.
Pick: Under 235
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Magic vs. Knicks
The Knicks had a laugher, running away with a comfortable win over the Grizzlies on Tuesday, and now they are on a back-to-back.
When teams win by double digits as a favorite and are favored again on the SEGABABA (SEcond GAme of A BAck to BAck), they are 113-99-3 (53%) ATS. So, at the very least, it’s not an unprofitable, bad spot.
I make this line Knicks -6.6.
The Magic got a big win over the Blazers on a Desmond Bane buzzer-beater.
That’s a game they had to have, and this is the letdown spot. New York is 7-0 ATS.
Orlando’s offense just isn’t consistent enough to trust it in this spot, even against a shaky Knicks offense.
Meanwhile, New York should be comfortable.
Wait until lineups for this one, though. If the Knicks rest players, you’ll get caught.
Pick: Knicks -4
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Cavaliers vs. Heat
Ok, there’s a trend that scares the bejesus out of me, so I want to say that up front.
This is what’s called a Duplex spot.
The Heat and Cavaliers squared off on Monday, and now they’re playing again on Wednesday in the same location.
The results are pretty mid for teams in this spot overall since the NBA started implementing these in the schedule in 2021. But Miami has been particularly awful in those spots.
As a home favorite facing a team they played less than three days ago and beat them in the first matchup, Miami is 39.7% against the spread via KillerSports.com.
This is essentially an “anti-South-Beach-flu” trend.
Whether that has anything to do with the lines or not, it hasn’t been kind.
However, that’s still 40 percent of the time the Heat have covered.
So, let’s talk about this season and this game:
- The Cavaliers are resting Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley, and Darius Garland is out with injury.
- The Heat are 5-0 SU and ATS at home.
- I make this line Heat -13.5 if we use in-season numbers with injury adjustment.
- The Cavs did go 4-1 ATS without Mitchell and 3-2 without Mobley last season on the road. With both out, they went 1-0, but they were 10-point 'dogs in that game.
This line is too heavily influenced by the preseason priors on Miami, which had them as a below-.500 team.
This game is trappy, I can’t deny it.
This reeks of the usual “team without a bunch of players knocks off a team playing well.”
However, the number itself cannot be considered accurate in-season, and is too heavily weighted to priors.
Pick: Heat -5.5
Warriors vs. Spurs
I’m a little surprised the Warriors aren’t resting anyone.
Even after the beatdown in OKC leading to fewer minutes for the starters, this is an old team on a 3rd-in-4-night road back-to-back.
I don’t know if that speaks to the Warriors’ urgency to pull out of this slide, but it’s surprising either way.
Even fully healthy, I make this Spurs -6.
Golden State is 1-6 ATS on the road this season, and their defense has been awful in those spots.
There’s a little turmoil with the team right now with Draymond Green calling out teammates (unnamed) in the media after the OKC loss.
This is a little dangerous with the Warriors coming off a blowout, but I just can’t get there on this number given how the Warriors have played exactly to the level I thought they were at in preseason, while San Antonio is so much better than my expectation.
Pick: Spurs -4.5
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Suns vs. Mavericks
Wait on this one to find out if Anthony Davis plays, which would likely bump the number up, and then still play the under.
The Mavericks are 8-3 to the under this season, and depending on what number you got on Bucks-Mavs, maybe 9-2.
The Mavs can’t score. They have the No. 29 halfcourt offense in the NBA right now via Synergy Sports, and are going under their team total by an average of 6.8 points per game, by far the worst in the NBA.
The Suns have the 10th-best halfcourt offense in the league, but the Mavericks defend pretty well, with the 9th-best halfcourt defense.
Plus, the Mavericks are actually really efficient when they run. They rank ninth in transition offenses per possession, while Phoenix is 26th defensively in that category.
However, the best way to defend transition points is to not allow transition opportunities.
The Suns get back and allow the 2nd-fewest transition possessions per game.
So, this is going to be a slog.
You can back the Mavericks in an emotional spot after the firing of Nico Harrison, but I don’t find players to really rally in those situations.
The guy who traded for you or gave you a contract getting fired just makes you uncertain about your future.
But, a Mavericks win looks like a tough defensive effort on the road. Meanwhile, a Suns win looks like another feces drop offensively from Dallas.
Love this under.
Pick: Under 228.5
Trail Blazers vs. Pelicans
Short and sweet: trends and matchup.
This is a matchup of:
- The 28th-ranked halfcourt offense (Pelicans) vs. the 13th-ranked halfcourt defense.
- The 9th-ranked transition offense against the 12th-ranked transition defense.
- The 27th-ranked home over team (Pelicans).
- A Pelicans team that is 4-1 to their team total under without Zion Williamson against a Blazers team that has only allowed the Heat and Jazz to go over their team total on the road.
The combined total is a stay-away based on Portland’s ability to turn over the Pelicans, but I struggle to see how New Orleans is going to score in this spot.
I project the Pels at 108.3.
Pick: Pelicans Team Total Under 111.5
Hawks vs. Kings
The Kings are playing their third game in the last four nights tonight.
So, it’s a bad rest spot for Sacramento, but the Kings are at home.
Who knows who they will sit or play, but for the moment, let’s assume Domantas Sabonis is going to try to tough out his rib injury.
In back-to-backs where Sabonis plays, the Kings are 20-26 ATS, including a stunning 6-15 ATS at home in those situations.
In games where Sabonis sits, the Kings are 0-3 ATS at home.
The Hawks are 4-2 without Trae Young now, and opponents are shooting 37 percent from the field in those games.
The opponent has gone under their team total in every game.
The Hawks can be the defensive team they want to be without Young. That’s just what it is.
Sabonis has been dealing with a rib injury since getting an elbow from Nikola Jokic last week, and had to deal with Joker again last night.
It’s likely he sits here, which would mean we likely get some closing line value.
The Hawks are surging right now, and I want to ride the hot hand on the West Coast road trip.
