The NBA is back with another excellent slate of games on Wednesday night, with a total of 10 matchups scheduled for today.
So, I've locked in picks for five of tonight's contests, including bets for Raptors vs Rockets, Pelicans vs Nuggets, and a pair of picks for Trail Blazers vs Jazz.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Wednesday, October 29.
NBA Predictions, Odds, Picks, Expert Bets: Wednesday, October 29
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Magic vs. Pistons
I just don’t think the Magic should be favored on the road right now.
The offense remains an unmitigated disaster. They can’t shoot.
The Magic are going to have to show me proof of concept offensively before I stop fading them against any defense with a pulse, and Detroit is 8th in schedule-adjusted defense.
Ausar Thompson being questionable hurts. But I make this a pick‘em even then, and if Ausar plays, it’s a clear play.
I just think we have to fade Orlando until they prove that they have the offense of the 50-win team they were projected to be by the market.
Pick: Pistons +1.5
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Raptors vs. Rockets
The Raptors are on a 3rd-in-4-nights after getting their teeth kicked in down in Texas by Dallas and San Antonio.
They’re back at home after a three-game losing streak, so the motivation is there.
The biggest factor here, though, is the ball pressure.
The Raptors are applying a lot of pressure on ball handlers.
This is a problem for the Rockets as they do not have point guards. As in, any of them.
The Pistons tore up Houston by applying light trap pressure on Amen Thompson trying to bring the ball up, forcing him into turnovers and messy possessions.
Toronto has the third-highest opponent turnover percentage. I’m expecting that matchup to give Houston problems and keep the Raptors within a possession.
Pick: Raptors +5.5
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Kings vs. Bulls
The Kings are the second-worst team in points off turnovers allowed this season, are on a back-to-back road trip, and Giddey averages 4.0 points off turnovers per game.
The Bulls force steals and then get Giddy the ball in transition.
Combine that with the ability to overload the defense and then reverse to the weakside, and I like this number.
Pick: Josh Giddey Over 26.5 Points + Assists
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Pelicans vs. Nuggets
The Nuggets are a wagon. They’re the No. 2 offense and No. 1 schedule-adjusted right now.
This team looks like the contender they were made out to be.
Cam Johnson is questionable with a shoulder injury, but I don’t think he impacts their overall rating very much given how Tim Hardaway Jr. has played early on.
Zion Williamson is questionable; absolutely wait for news on him to come down.
Either way, after he’s announced in or out, I would play this; I make this Nuggets -14.5.
Now, my rating is low on the Pelicans; they have talent and have shown some fight.
But I’ve seen Nuggets seasons like this before. When the team is top-three-seed level good, they roll at home.
Pick: Nuggets -12.5
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Trail Blazers vs. Jazz
Jazz +3.5
The unstoppable force meets the irresistible object, and for once in recent years, I’m not being sarcastic.
Utah’s offense has been an absolute inferno to start, ranking 5th in the early season. Portland’s defense ranks 5th.
Now, if we use schedule-adjusted figures, Utah is all the way down at 28th, thanks to a weak strength of schedule; Portland is 11th, but that’s mostly because their strength of schedule is impacted by, well, playing them.
Utah is 3-0 ATS, the Blazers are 4-0.
But oftentimes, I like to examine a line if we flip homecourt advantage.
Average homecourt last season was 1.7 points. Let’s give that to each side, despite Utah’s altitude advantage.
That puts this line at Blazers -6.9 at home.
Should Portland be more than a possession favorite at home against anyone except Brooklyn right now?
I’m not there yet.
I make this line Blazers -0.4, closer to pick‘em.
I genuinely think Utah’s talent is underrated in the market power rating, and while Portland will take advantage of Utah’s awful defense, Utah will get theirs.
The best player on the court in this game is Lauri Markkanen. I’ll grab the points.
Donovan Clingan Double-Double (+229)
The Jazz are dead last in 2nd-chance points allowed, and Clingan leads the Blazers.
Walker Kessler is a tough matchup on rebounds, but Clingan will play enough in the non-Walker minutes to get here.
Picks: Jazz +3.5, Donovan Clingan Double-Double +229
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