The NBA regular season is back in action with an excellent 9-game slate this Friday. So, I've locked in picks for three of today's contests, including bets for Heat vs. Hawks, Bucks vs. Pelicans, and Clippers vs. Lakers.
Let's get to my NBA predictions, odds and expert bets for Friday, February 20.
NBA Predictions, Picks for Friday, Feb. 20
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Heat vs. Hawks
This is all about the rest spot.
When Erik Spoelstra has more than two days rest, Miami is 13-7 ATS since 2021. When teams are on rest as road favorites, facing a team on a back-to-back, they are 43-26 ATS since 2003 via KillerSports.com.
The Hawks got a feel-good win vs. the Sixers on Thursday, who were without Joel Embiid, but the Heat are probably a little better right now.
Tyler Herro is expected to make his return for Miami, and while some Heat fans think Herro is a hindrance, just giving them another offensive weapon should help.
Miami is the fastest team in the league as far as pace goes. Atlanta has really struggled with those types of teams this season. Atlanta is 8-16 ATS when facing a team with an average pace above 105.
One more odd trend. When teams face the Sixers and then play a back-to-back, they are 4-10 ATS this season.
From a tactical standpoint, Atlanta’s lack of size means the Heat don’t have to worry about playing Bam Adebayo at center and bringing Kel’el Ware in the bench minutes.
The Hawks have some good perimter defenders, but Norman Powell and Herro can hold their own.
Miami has done well against below-average three-point defensive teams this season.
But the big problem is that Atlanta is the third-worst transition defense. Miami plays at a breakneck speed. That’s a huge edge.
I make this line Heat -6 and will play it up to that number.
I’ll also play the under; I make this total 232.
Miami is secretly a better defensive team.
Even if the Heat score in transition, that just helps them set their half-court defense against the Hawks on tired legs.
Atlanta has been an over team vs. fast pace teams, but I think this total has just gone too high.
The under is 6-4 for Atlanta on the second night of a back to back.
Pick: Heat -3.5 (-110), Under 244.5 (-110)
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Bucks vs. Pelicans
Milwaukee is trying to save its franchise from obliteration in the form of Giannis’ uncertain future.
Meanwhile, the Pelicans are just trying to get by, man.
The Pelicans have actually covered in six of their last 10 games and are 16-12-1 ATS at home this season, good for the third-best mark in the league. They are also 5-1 as home favorites this season.
The Bucks are still without Giannis Antetokounmpo, and while they won and covered in five-of-six going into the break, I don’t like the spot for Milwaukee here.
The Pelicans do have talent on their roster, and without their own pick, have no real reason to lose.
The Bucks are good at shooting, but they lose in all the margin areas.
The Pelicans are pretty good in most of the margin areas (top 12 in turnover rate, offensive rebounds, and foul rate) but can’t shoot (28th).
So, it’s an interesting matchup.
The Pelicans are actually pretty good at defending primary actions like pick-and-roll and isolation; they struggle to contain shooters, which will be a problem vs. the Bucks.
But the Pelicans do attack the rim, and the Bucks struggle with defending it.
New Orleans is 14-8 ATS this season when Herbert Jones and Zion Williamson both play, and neither is on the injury report.
I make this spread Pelicans -4 and think the spot is good to take them as a home favorite.
I lean to the over as well, as I make this total 229.
The Bucks’ average total without Giannis is two points higher than this mark and New Orleans is likely to score easier than usual.
This feels like a faster-paced shootout.
Pick: Pelicans -4 (-105)
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Clippers vs. Lakers
The Lakers have just been so bad against any team with a pulse.
The Clippers are a sub-.500 team, but only in name; they have been playing high-level ball for two months.
The Clippers are on a back to back and Kawhi Leonard may not play, but since I make this line a pick’em, I’d want to play the Clippers, even without him.
The Clippers lost a lot of size, but the Lakers are playing Deandre Ayton less and less. They have good defenders with size, like Kris Dunn and Derrick Jones Jr.
Meanwhile, Bennedict Mathurin may be on pace for a breakout, and if Leonard plays, he’s sure to cook the Lakers’ defense.
Luka Doncic has a history of crushing the Clippers, but this team is athletic and versatile, even after losing Harden and Zubac.
It's that same offensive firepower that makes me like the over as well.
The Clippers still have shooting, and the Lakers’ offense is a wagon at full-strength with Luka Doncic back.
The Clippers will switch routinely on Doncic, and he tends to run those matchups into the ground hunting, but not having Zubac to pick on might actually be a benefit for the Clippers in this particular game.
I’ll count on a high-flying affair with the Clippers getting the win on a back-to-back as the feel-good vibes continue — at least until the NBA finishes its investigation into the Aspiration deal.
Pick: Clippers +6.5 (-110)
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