Placing Stock on Tyrese Maxey’s ‘Most Improved Player’ Chances

It finally happened. James Harden got his way and will be part of the Los Angeles Clippers, who have brought together four incredibly big names, all who grew up in the area, and try to recreate a time machine to 2017 to make them an actual contender.

But this article is not about throwing shade at the Clippers. At least not directly. This is about the man filling James Harden’s shoes in Philly—Tyrese Maxey. Let me clarify, that’s your reigning Eastern Conference Player of the Week, Tyrese Maxey.

It has been quite the come-up for Maxey in the past few months. Over the summer, before any news broke about Harden, Maxey was already in the discussions as a breakout candidate to look out for in 2023-24. He’s a 23-year-old, fourth-year player who averaged 20.3 points per game last season and catches the eye of anyone who watches him. 

On the day the Harden news first started trickling out, Matt Moore and myself talked through what moves bettors should make as a potential reaction to a Harden move and landed on Tyrese Maxey as a must-bet for Most Improved Player of the Year.

He was +1600 then. A bit of that buzz continued to the point that by Opening Night, he was +1100. But the past week is where things have gotten really crazy. Thanks to his 30.3 points, 6.7 rebounds, and 6.3 assists per game over the first week, along with Harden sitting out, he had already jumped into the lead for the award, typically around +500. Then, the moment the trade was announced the books moved to around +300. Now, with money flooding in on Maxey, books have settled around +200.

So what should you be looking at today when it comes to actionable bets? I think that breaks very neatly into two paths.

What to Do If You Have Maxey Stock Already

If you were indeed able to grab Maxey at longer than +1000, there’s obviously no need to add today. There’s a decent case to be made for simply riding this one out—you have the prohibitive favorite, and at an outstanding number.

However, I think the smarter approach is to use that piece as a chip to really make sure this award is a money maker for you.

We are only a week into the season, sooooo much can change, especially in a season in which the awards have new restrictions for winners.

As such, there are two names I want to target: Franz Wagner and Tyler Herro. 

For Franz, on the surface, his numbers aren’t a whole lot different than last season, but that’s in part due to some bad luck. He is taking almost twice as many threes per game, and getting to the line more than 50 percent more. That’s a great recipe for increasing your points per game from the 18 range to mid 20s, and getting him into the All-Star conversation, which is central to this award.

For Herro, he’s already getting those results. His 25.3 points per game are up from 20.1, and it has been driven by a massive jump in FGA that makes this look very sustainable. With Franz at +3500 and Herro at +4000, both provide excellent pieces to add to Maxey in the MIP portfolio.

You may be wondering why I skipped over some of the names higher up in the odds, and it mostly comes down to one big factor: Team success. As Brandon Anderson showed last season, nine of the previous 10 MIP winners had come from playoff teams. Of course, we are now nine of 11, with Lauri Markkanen having won last season for the playoff-less Jazz, but I do think it’s still a useful part of the criteria. 

Most of the names behind Maxey are on teams that are unlikely to be in the postseason — Scottie Barnes, Cade Cunningham, Cam Thomas, Jalen Duren, Alperen Sengun, Mikal Bridges, Shaedon Sharpe, and Jordan Poole are the next eight names, and there is a very good chance none make the postseason.

Of course, Wagner’s Magic are in the tier alongside most of those teams by a preseason projection, but personally I see the Magic in a higher tier than most of those teams (except the Nets maybe) in part because I see Franz in a tier above any of those players as well. He’s just going to need the numbers, which look like they could be on the way with the improved shot profile.

However, it is undoubtedly a great sign for the Maxey bet that he’s the only true contender for this award on an actual true contender! (Or at least playoff lock.) Which brings us to…

What to Do If You Don’t Have Maxey Stock Already

If I were making this market right now, I’d have Maxey this heavy of a favorite, I don’t actually see it as all that much of an overreaction (unlike Clippers +1200 to win the title, which I definitely do see as the classic post-trade overreaction the books thrive on).

Maxey’s numbers are going to come down to earth a bit, but honestly I’d project him around 26/5/7 going forward, which would make a really strong MIP. For one, that would almost guarantee an All-Star nod, a key component of Brandon’s aforementioned guide to the award. With Harden out West, the competition for East backcourt (and All-Star roster as a whole) has a Maxey-sized hole waiting to be filled. Donovan Mitchell and Tyrese Haliburton seem like semi-locks, but beyond that it’s names like Jalen Brunson, Jaylen Brown, Trae Young, Darius Garland, and folks who likely won’t be able to match a 26/5/7 line should Maxey sustain that level.

However, it’s not as if we should just hand Maxey the award today. 

Once again, it’s barely a week into the season. A trillion things can change. Players need to play 65 games to qualify for awards this season, making betting any favorite this early in the season a dangerous proposition. There’s also the fact that this is the NBA—a trillion might’ve been underselling how many things can change.

It didn’t take long for folks to notice that the Sixers suddenly have A LOT of expiring deals that could be great for putting together for another star. A few of the names that have been kicked around might well impact Maxey’s projections above. Someone like Pascal Siakim, or even OG Anunoby might not do enough to derail this campaign, but a player like Zach LaVine would definitely eat back into Maxey’s newfound usage. It’s unlikely this would happen until the trade deadline, but again: this is the NBA, anything can happen at any second.

Which brings me, actually, to one final fork in the road—a mini fork.

If you are a bettor who is very active, and looking to build out portfolios and leverage your way into great ROI—I wouldn’t bet Maxey today. You’re simply buying at a terrible time, and almost certainly something will give you a better return, even if it just means missing out on this market this season. 

If you’re the type to bet one guy in an awards race and kind of just rock and roll with them through the season, I am absolutely fine betting Maxey at +250 at BetRivers right now. His breakout is legit, he’s going to be on a strong team, and likely to make his first All-Star appearances. He checks literally every box, and at +250, you’re still getting at least a bit of a plus number.