The Minnesota Timberwolves (37-23) and Denver Nuggets (37-23) will face off in the NBA on Sunday afternoon. Tipoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from Ball Arena in Denver, Colorado. The game will broadcast live on ABC.
The Nuggets are 3-point favorites over the Timberwolves on the spread (Nuggets -3), with the over/under set at 239.5 total points. Denver is a -150 favorite to win outright on the moneyline, while Minnesota is +125 to pull off the upset.
Let's get into my Timberwolves vs. Nuggets predictions and NBA picks for Sunday, March 1.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Prediction, Picks
- Timberwolves vs Nuggets picks: Timberwolves Moneyline (+125), Over 239.5 (-110)
My Nuggets vs. Timberwolves best bets are on Minnesota moneyline and Over 239.5 total points. Make sure to find the best odds by checking our live NBA odds page.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Odds
| Timberwolves Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+3 -110 | 239.5 -110o / -110u | +125 |
| Nuggets Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-3 -110 | 239.5 -110o / -110u | -150 |
Timberwolves vs Nuggets NBA Preview
Minnesota and Denver is a true rivalry.
After the Nuggets stomped Minnesota in the first round on their way to the 2023 championship, the Timberwolves built a contender that knocked off Denver in the second round in 2024 with a 20-point fourth-quarter comeback on the road in Game 7 — and then pretty much owned them in 2024-25.
However, the Nuggets are 3-0 against Minnesota this season, having turned the tide with strong shooting and some of their best defensive performances.
The problem is that those results don’t really track with the profile of teams that give Denver problems.
Let’s start here: the Nuggets have shooters but are still a points-in-the-paint team with Nikola Jokic. They want to attack inside.
Following their loss to Oklahoma City a few days ago, the Nuggets are now 10-11 this season against teams with a top-10 two-point field goal percentage allowed in the halfcourt. Minnesota is sixth in that category.
The Nuggets had Aaron Gordon for 69 minutes this season against the Wolves. They are +27.6 in those minutes and -8.5 when he sits. He’s out for Sunday’s game.
Without Gordon, the Nuggets’ defense has fallen off a cliff, though it’s been better in the last two games.
The Timberwolves’ addition of Ayo Dosunmu looms large here as well. He’s struggling to get acclimated to a new situation; that’s normal for players who have only played for one team.
Dosunmu gives Minnesota another perimeter defender to throw at Jamal Murray, and they have Jaden McDaniels if they want to play a small-ball matchup on Jokic with Rudy Gobert bracketed as a help defender on the weak-side — or they could just put Dosunmu on Jokic.
It’s another spacer and ball-handler to attack downhill for Minnesota, who doesn’t compromise them defensively.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Predictions, Betting Analysis
Timberwolves +3 / Timberwolves Moneyline
I make the spread for this game a pick‘em, and that sounds much closer to where it should be.
Denver hasn’t been good vs. elite teams since Jokic returned without Gordon.
The Wolves are on two days’ rest and it’s difficult to beat a team four times in a season when they know you as well as the Wolves know Denver.
I’ll grab the points and play the moneyline on Minnesota.
Over 239.5
However, the best play here is the Over because of this trend that I have been playing over and over:
The Over is 26-11 in Nuggets' games this season when Aaron Gordon doesn’t play, and it has hit in four of the last five.
Minnesota is the second-ranked Over team on the road this season, and Denver is the 6th-highest Over team at home.
Everything here seemingly projects the Wolves putting up a big number.
Timberwolves vs Nuggets Best Bets
- Timberwolves +3 (-110)
- Timberwolves Moneyline (+125)
- Over 239.5 (-110)
Spread
I'm backing the Timberwolves to cover the spread in this spot.
Moneyline
I also like Minnesota to win outright on the moneyline in today's game.
Over/Under
My main Timberwolves vs. Nuggets betting prediction is Over 239.5 total points.
