Saturday’s Best NBA Player Props: Betting Jaylen Brown Points, More
Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports. Pictured: Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) dunks and scores against the Cleveland Cavaliers at TD Garden.
- Saturday night features a 10-game NBA slate with four games offering favorable prop bets, including Celtics-Knicks.
- This piece will focus on player prop bets offering value for Markieff Morris, Jaylen Brown, Bobby Portis and Andrew Wiggins.
Prop bets can be a great way to get action on a game. Bookmakers don’t have to worry about taking a lot of action on them, so there isn’t as great an incentive to post a competitive line.
As a result, props can be some of the most exploitable bets on the board.
These props can become downright unfair when you combine them with the FantasyLabs Player Prop tool.
Saturday’s best NBA props come from four of the day’s 10 contests:
- Toronto Raptors at Washington Wizards — 7 p.m. ET
- Boston Celtics at New York Knicks — 7:30 p.m. ET
- Detroit Pistons at Chicago Bulls — 8 p.m. ET
- Minnesota Timberwolves at Dallas Mavericks — 8:30 p.m. ET
Let’s dive right in.
Wizards PF Markieff Morris
The Pick: Under 11.5 points (-105)
Morris scored just 11 points in the Wizards’ first game of the season, and his 25 minutes of playing time indicate he might not be a huge part of their rotation this season.
He shot 2-of-3 from 3-point range and 3-of-4 from the free throw line in that contest, so any reduction in efficiency could make it difficult for him to go over on this prop.
This prop is really banking on an inefficient night from Morris, but that’s far from a guarantee. This bet stops becoming appealing around -125.
Celtics SG Jaylen Brown
The Pick: Over 12 points (-115)
The Celtics are one of the deepest teams in the league, and as a result, Brown has seen a solid reduction in playing time this season. He’s averaged little more than 26 minutes per game in their first two games this season, but he should see a nice bump Saturday with Gordon Hayward ruled out for rest.
Brown has seen the biggest usage bump on the team with Hayward off the floor this season, resulting in an average of 20.8 points per 36 minutes.
This is my favorite prop of the day, so I’d play it up to -170.
Bulls PF Bobby Portis
The Pick: Over eight rebounds (-125)
The Bulls are dealing with a lot of injuries right now, including last year’s first round pick Lauri Markkanen. He’s expected to miss the first few weeks of the regular season, which should result in lots of playing time for Portis.
He dominated in his first contest this season, ripping down 11 rebounds in 33 minutes, and he did that against one of the best rebounding teams in the league in the Philadelphia 76ers. Detroit was a much weaker rebounding team last season, so he should be able to repeat his success on the glass Saturday.
The presence of Andre Drummond does scare me a little in this matchup, but I think this bet looks like a value up until -140.
Wolves SG Andrew Wiggins
The Pick: Over 17.5 points (-114)
Jimmy Butler will not play Saturday for the Minnesota Timberwolves, which should give Wiggins a huge boost in scoring opportunities.
The Timberwolves are resting Jimmy Butler tonight in Dallas.
— Shams Charania (@ShamsCharania) October 20, 2018
Wiggins sees a usage bump of +2.1% with Butler off the floor this season, and he averaged 19.7 points per game in 23 games with Butler out of the lineup last season. He has a nice matchup Saturday vs. the Dallas Mavericks, who allowed 128.7 points per 100 possessions to the Suns in their first game of the season.
I love Wiggins’ scoring upside in this contest, and would play this prop up to -150.