The NBA playoffs resume this Wednesday, as two crucial Game 2s take center stage tonight — and our NBA betting expert Matt Moore has identified four player prop picks showing significant value in today's matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and Minnesota Timberwolves.
Let's get into the breakdown of his NBA player prop picks for Wednesday, May 6.
Spurs vs Timberwolves Game 2 Player Props
| Time (ET) | Player Prop |
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| 9:30 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
| 9:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | |
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Player Prop: Rudy Gobert
Rudy Gobert Over 1.5 Assists (-130)
I’m taking Rudy Gobert Over 1.5 Assists (-130). Now, I know that sounds insane because the general consensus is that Rudy can’t catch a cold, let alone a basketball. And look, you’re not wrong—the guy’s hands can be a liability. But here is the secret: once he actually has the ball in his possession, he’s a surprisingly high-level passer.
Rudy has cleared this 1.5 mark in six of his seven playoff games this year. The only outlier was a single game in the Nuggets series.
Gobert is coming off a Game 1 where he dropped three assists, and it’s because the Wolves have found these really cool mechanisms to utilize him. They’re getting him the ball on downhill drives, and he’s recognizing the patterns and immediately dishing to the open cutter. He’s actually putting some real zip on the ball lately.
I don’t necessarily like the idea of Rudy catching the ball, but I love him passing it. He’s recognizing defensive rotations much better than he has in the past.
In a game where San Antonio will be hyper-focused on the perimeter, Rudy should be able to find those easy dump-offs.
Pick: Rudy Gobert Over 1.5 Assists (-130)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Player Prop: Anthony Edwards
Anthony Edwards Under 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135)
Honestly, 7.5 is just too high for where Anthony Edwards is at physically right now. He finished with six in Game 1, but we saw the script play out: he had the early burst after the week off, but by the end of the game, he was jogging up the court like I do. That's a red flag.
Edwards probably feels like death today. His knees are likely being iced as you read this, and I expect him to be worse in Game 2 before he potentially bounces back for Game 3.
I’d stay away from his points line at 20.5 because, with his volume and usage, he can always find a way to an over by getting to the foul line or hitting a bunch of three-pointers.
But the auxiliary stats? That’s where the physical toll shows up. I don't think his body can handle the rebounding part right now, and I’m not sure the Spurs are going to allow the assist opportunities he needs to clear this.
We also don't know if that 25-minute limit from Game 1 holds. Him jumping back to a full starter’s workload seems unlikely. Use caution and play the under on the auxiliary things.
Pick: Anthony Edwards Under 7.5 Rebounds + Assists (-135)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Player Prop Stephon Castle
Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
If you look back at Stephon Castle's last 30 games, he’s cleared this 1.5 line 53% of the time. But, the real story is the postseason form. His three-point totals since the start of the playoffs have been 2, 3, 3, 2, and 3. That is five straight playoff games covering this line.
Since he is not the primary initiator—that’s De'Aaron Fox’s job—Castle is mainly operating as a spot-up weapon. His role is simple: wait for the ball to find him, shoot if he's open, or drive if he’s not. I really like the way his shot looks right now; he looks completely in rhythm.
I’m not concerned about his overall season percentages sitting lower than this number. This is a play on opportunity and current form. The looks will be there for Castle as the Minnesota defense collapses on Fox.
Pick: Stephon Castle Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (+130)
Timberwolves vs. Spurs Player Prop Naz Reid
Naz Reid Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-156)
Honestly, I'm surprised the books haven’t moved this line yet. Look, I get it—he only made two in Game 1—but you have to look at the process and what the San Antonio defense is actually giving up.
The Spurs are built to protect the rim at all costs, and as a result, they are going to surrender corner threes all day long. That is the fundamental trade-off of their scheme.
Now that Donte DiVincenzo is out of the lineup, Naz Reid is far and away the best corner shooter on this Timberwolves roster. He is the guy who is going to be standing there waiting for those kick-outs when the defense collapses.
I plan on playing this pretty consistently throughout the series. Even if he happens to miss in Game 2, I’ll likely be back on it even bigger in Game 3—maybe even looking at a 3+ escalator then. But for tonight, we’re sticking to the baseline. It’s juiced at -156, but I’m comfortable with anything below -175.
Pick: Naz Reid Over 1.5 Three-Pointers Made (-156)
