The ‘Boom or Bust’ X-Factor for Each NBA Western Conference Contender

Part two of the mini-series is here.

Every Western Conference Contender and each individual X-Factor who is their ultimate swing piece, as was done for the Eastern Conference.

This will be slightly more extensive and expansive since the west projects to be more of a bloodbath with more teams we could buy as contenders when compared to the east.

Let's do it.

With Karl-Anthony Towns healthy, this may have still been the case. 

But with KAT suffering a torn meniscus in the first week of March, the spotlight will be on, among others, Mr. Reid in order to fill his minutes and production. 

Reid is a popular NBA nerd fan favorite because of his off the bench ignitability and perimeter shot-making that leads fans to believe he can be more than he's been whilst producing similarly throughout his career. 

The New Jersey native is clearly a quality stretch big who some think deserves a bigger role. Well, now's his chance to prove it over a lengthy duration. 

He continues to come off the bench with Towns sidelined, but he exploded for a career-high 34 points in his first opportunity following the injury. That won't be a regular occurrence, but his dynamic shooting could keep the T-Wolves afloat until KAT is back, which, given the history of meniscus injuries, could be early in the playoffs at best, which would come shortly after his scheduled re-evaluation four weeks following the tear.

Herb Jones is one of the best defensive yadda yadda yadda… did you know this dude is shooting 54 percent from three since the turn of the calendar? 

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Jones is highly regarded for his defense — as he should be. He's one of the best perimeter defenders in the league and will be a perennial All-Defense candidate moving forward. And defense alone is important because guess who — like OG Anunoby, whom I mentioned in my East X-Factors — will guard many of the opposing team's top creators like Edwards, Steph Curry, LeBron James, pick a Clippers, pick a Sun, etc?

"Not on Herb" isn't because the dude shuts down scrubs — he can and does give your favorite Tik-Tok highlight friendly hooper fits.

But the shooting is game-changing. If Jones is a true 3-and-D guy, looking the **** out. Jones is at 12.5 points per game since January 27 on 58/54/86 shooting splits. He's a true swing piece if the offense allows him to become enough of a focus to space and clear pathways for Zion Williamson, Brandon Ingram and CJ McCollum — and then you have the defense, which you can't win a title without.

When you're among the best defensive players in the NBA, you will always be a key component to your team's championship chase, especially when they're young and unproven in the playoffs.

With the injury to Towns, the Thunder now have a slightly less difficult path to the No. 1 seed, though it's far from a guarantee that they'll in the regular season in that position.

Regardless, the Western Conference is going to be a bloodbath. The Thunder, even if they get the No. 1 seed, they could still draw anyone from the Phoenix Suns to the Golden State Warriors and anyone in between — that in between? Just the Los Angeles Lakers, no big deal. Or what about the Sacramento Kings, who took the Warriors to seven games last year? Or maybe the Dallas Mavericks, who have one of the West's most potent 1-2 combos, plus a conference finals run two seasons ago?

And Dort will be tasked to often guard the best perimeter scorer and or creator on any team OKC will face. That means Luka Doncic, De'Aaron Fox, Edwards, LeBron, Curry, pick your Sun and your Pelican. 

Also, continuing to average about 11 points and shooting 41 percent from three will help in the playoffs.

Dort was an All-Defense snub to some last year and should secure a pot on at least the second squad this year. He should honestly get more Defensive Player of the Year consideration, but we feel like we have to give it to Rudy Gobert again and a big man every year, so whatever. 

The Mavericks might have a sexier answer — and I'm trying to avoid multiples — but these two have to go in the same bucket. 

Whether or not you see the Mavs as legit contenders, they're trying to operate as such. For me, they're a sleeper to make a deep run. They traded for Kyrie Irving last season, moved first-round compensation for PJ Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline, and since they have Luka Doncic, they should be looking to win every season. 

Dereck Lively is a rookie center, so asking him to carry the load on the interior — good as he's been already — is tough, but he's still here because he's been the starter when healthy for most of the season. 

Gafford's playing time has fluctuated since coming to Dallas from Washington, but the timeshare at center — along with Maxi Kleber — will be the backbone of any playoff success or failure opposite of guys like Gobert and Towns in Minnesota, Nikola Jokic in Denver, Chet Holmgren in OKC, Anthony Davis of the Lakers, you get it.

Someone has to be an effective big on the team, and that's Ivica Zubac. 

A team with Kawhi Leonard, Paul George and James Harden leading the way — and eventually Russell Westbrook — needs a big man who could do the dirty work and survive on defense. Who could be an effective screener, pick-and-roll partner and finish around the rim. Who won't need the ball, and who could last in the playoffs.

Zubac is a career-best 11.6 points and 9.2 rebounds per game with 1.2 blocks while shooting 65.5 percent from the field. He has the fourth-best plus-minus net per 100 possessions on the team — simply put, on-off — at + 1.6.

He'll have to deal with Jonas Valanciunas and Larry Nance Jr. or Jusuf Nurkic or Domantas Sabonis or maybe even the Mavericks centers in the first round.

Similar to Zubac, the Suns will need lots of those things, but the difference is that Zubac is in a better team situation than Nurkic.

Nurkic shouldn't be as important as he is to Phoenix, but this is what happens when you go all in on a big three and can't serviceable fill out your roster with quality depth. The Clippers are all in, but they managed to surround their guys with better parts.

The Sun's fourth-best player this season has been Grayson Allen, who is a contender for this spot as well, but the Suns need to be able to play big for stretches, and they have one of the worst center situations among any Western Conference contender.

He'll be a constant screener for Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, and Bradley Beal. He'll also need to finish effectively around the rim, and the Suns can't afford for him to be sauced on switches, though; it might happen anyway. But if he's legitimately good and impactful toward winning, the Suns' ceiling will be raised — though I'm skeptical even their best sees them make a deep run, given the nature of the conference. 

Kuminga is averaging 19.4 points and 5.6 rebounds per game on 55/34/79 shooting since calling out Steve Kerr over two months ago. That's a 30-game sample size, and in that span, the Warriors are 18-12 — they were 16-18 beforehand, so maybe, that round goes to Kuminga?

In any event, now the blossoming young forward gets to prove his playoff worth alongside the most "been there, done that" core in the NBA. Steph Curry, Klay Thompson, and Draymond Green are all playoff-proven. Even if the latter two aren't quite where they've been for most of the Warriors' championship relevance consistently, you'll still implicitly trust them in the playoffs over most of their peers, especially since Curry is still an elite NBA player.

Chris Paul won't be relied on for a heavy workload and has been a quality table setter to amplify others. But Kuminga is this team's ultimate test of strength. 

If a championship core is going to extend their window beyond what we think is capable, the young star coming along and taking a stranglehold of a sizeable role when it matters is a good formula. Kawhi Leonard did it for the Spurs, and it doesn't happen often, but if anyone is going to in Golden State, Kuminga has the keys for that particular toolbox.

And the impact is real — he has the second-best plus-minus per 100 (+4.2) and plus-minus net per 100 (+4.9) on the team this season. 

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Another thing that contenders need? The young player who becomes a real winning playoff rotation piece sooner than outsiders may expect.

Last year, we sang the praises of Denver's main characters in Jokic and Murray, Aaron Gordon and his versatility, and Michael Porter Jr even if he couldn't hit a swimming pool with a tennis ball during the NBA Finals. The Nuggets also got a real meaningful depth boost from Christian Braun, who played 82 total minutes across five games in the NBA Finals and annoyed the Heat with his defense, his tendency to contribute to key defensive stops at the right time, and he even had the team's best true shooting percentage (69.2) after Jeff Green, who just took nine shots.

Braun, if you recall, was really instrumental in Denver's Game 3 and Game 5 Finals victories, scoring 15 on 7-of-8 shooting in the former and being trusted to log 24 minutes in the latter, including five in the fourth quarter.

Watson is the guy this year who could breakthrough this spring, and this is more so about trust and making the right plays than straightforward and easily identifiable production. 

He's had a noisy second year despite just averaging 6.9 points per game on 18.3 minutes per night. He just pops on the screen when you watch him. He three-point shot isn't there yet, the polish isn't what it will be, but the raw defensive ability is prevalent, and that will be advantageous for a team who surged to the title after finding a defensive identity in the second half of last year.

Are the Lakers really a contender? I mean, we kinda have to at least treat them like one because we know who headlines that team, and they did get to the conference finals last season.

It started as a little hot streak, then grew into a heater, and now, we just can't deny that D'Angelo Russell is having arguably his best individual season. 

The former All-Star not averaging a career-high in points or assists per game, but his career-highs are across the board in terms of efficiency.

He's shooting 47/42/80 splits — the first two are his best ever — his true shooting percentage is near 60, the second best of his career, his 2.0 box plus-minus trails on LeBron and AD, and his .101 win shares per 48 minutes is fifth on the team amongst the relevant players. 

It's largely jump-shooting and playmaking because he doesn't get to the free throw line a ton still, he's back closer to his Nets days (.176 free throw rate this season, was .153 as a Net) vs. where he was in Golden State (.227) or Minnesota (.238).

Russell also has been an abysmal playoff shooter in his career with 39/33 splits and averaging about 14-5 in 27 playoff games. It's gotten him benched in fourth quarters, too — it happened last year with the Lakers, and even with Minnesota for Jordan McLaughlin in a closeout Game 6 against the Grizzlies. He has playoff questions he needs to answer, especially given how reliable he's been from a production standpoint these last two months.

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