The ‘Boom or Bust’ X-Factor for Each NBA Eastern Conference Contender

Each Eastern Conference contender, each X-factor who could ultimately swing their title chances from good to bad.

We're trying to avoid stars here, and this group provides one former All-Star, who hasn't been one in six seasons — essentially, no star players allowed. 

Some are obvious, some are not, but we have six, so let's waste no time. 

Let's start with an obvious one.

Kristaps Porzingis is the biggest thing standing between this team from being a juggernaut or fraudulent. He replaced the big brother in Marcus Smart, he's been All-Star like this season when healthy, but you always worry about injuries based on his history. 

And also, just look at this dude. 

On a team that's numerically absurd, he's first in win shares per 48 minutes (.225) if you look beyond Luke Kornet (.232) who is not yet at even 700 minutes this season. 

Porzingis has the potential to be the best trap card on the battlefield when summoned because his size and spacing can distort every Eastern Conference contender they'll see.

The Bucks start Giannis Antetokounmpo and Brook Lopez, the Heat start Bam Adebayo, the Knicks, if healthy, will have Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson if not Isaiah Hartenstein, the Cavs double big lineup consists of Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen — health permitting — and Joel Embiid leads the Sixers frontcourt, of course.

If he's healthy — and not struggling — it could be Boston's biggest reason for returning to the Finals.

We've questioned the Bucks' depth all season, but Bobby Portis — a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate since joining the team — is their biggest swing piece in that department.

The team will be thin and top heavy in the playoffs, but strong Portis outings will make them dangerous, and allows the team to remain big, which they'll need to lean into if they're hoping to repeat.

Portis has the potential for the occasional explosive effort that leads to a huge win. He has the NBA's only 25-point and 15-rebound effort off the bench, spearheading a comeback win over the Clippers on March 4 with 28 and 16. After a lull in January, he's been averaging 16.0 points and 7.9 boards per game on 50/40/86 shooting since February 4.

In the team's title run, where he wasn't as solidified, he helped close out the Hawks in the Conference Finals, starting Games 5 and 6 after Giannis Antetokounmpo went down, recording 34 points, 17 rebounds, five assists, and three steals across the last two wins. He also had a meaningful 16 points in the Bucks' Game 6 closeout win over the Suns to win the title, shooting 6-for-10 and hitting two threes.

Now, he's locked into a role, and they'll need him because no one else on the second unit consistently gives them what he does.

If Joel Embiid can't get healthy, this team is cooked anyway.

But in a world where Embiid returns, Buddy Hield is their x-factor. 

The Hield deal, to me, was all about how well he complements Embiid conceptually, but they haven't even played together yet. 

Hield, drafted in 2016, has never played a playoff game. After a great start in Philly, he has quieted, averaging 14.9 points and 4.8 assists on 43/42/91 shooting — the 91 is whatever since he averages less than a free throw per game — and this is with Embiid out and Tyrese Maxey concussed.

But with a healthy Embiid, Hield is the biggest beneficiary because he's a Capital E Elite sniper from the perimeter who will be able to operate in space. 

Maybe the hope is some Culture rubs off on the Cavs? 

Max Strus was a key component to two deep Miami Heat playoff runs, and he's been better than expected in Cleveland, but his Heat run was very feast or famine.

We think of him as a shooter because that's what we'd yell when he's left open in the park, but he's a career 36 percent three-point shooter, 34 percent this season and he's only been better than 35 percent once. His playmaking is what's improved the most in Cleveland, and as he did in Miami, he competes defensively. 

The shooting, though, has to be good enough. Donovan Mitchell and Darius Garland, both in and out of the injury report all-season, will carry much of the offense. Mobley is currently out — he has post-season questions he needs to answer, too — as does Jarrett Allen. 

Strus is incredibly streaky.

In the 2022 playoffs, he shot 33 percent from three on eight attempts per game. In 18 games, he shot 29 percent or worse from deep eight times and was 37.5 percent or higher in the other 10. However, he was 29 percent in the conference finals, which included an 0-for-11 two-game stretch sandwiched between a 4-for-7 and a 3-for-8.

Last playoffs, he was 32 percent from deep, shooting 33 percent or worse in 12 of 23 games, and was 40 or better in the other 11. He was 27 percent across the conference finals and finals, 23 percent after Games 1 and 2 in Boston, hitting over 25 percent in just three of the last 10 Heat playoff games. 

Given other questions this younger team has — including whether they're actually contenders — they might not be equipped to survive this level of streakiness out the gate considering that a team like the Heat or Knicks or Sixers could await them in Round 1, all of whom would be favored against a mostly healthy despite Cleveland having homecourt.

Another obvious one is that, of course, it's health-based. 

Anunoby has been out for about six weeks with an elbow injury and is expected to return at some point in March, but even so, this is part of the experience — he's played more than 48 games once since the 2019-20 season. 

How the aforementioned Porzingis can be a cheat code in stretching opposing contending bigs, OG Anunoby could do that in terms of being tasked to guard premier offensive threats on other team's. 

You'll live with Anunoby guarding Jayson Tatum or Jaylen Brown on the Celtics, Damian Lillard, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Khris Middleton on the Bucks, Jimmy Butler or Bam Adebayo on the Miami Heat, Maxey or Harris on the Sixers, Mitchell, Garland or Mobley on the Cavs — you get it.

There will always be someone to contain, and if he does that while replicating what he was on offense — 15.6 points, 1.8 steals, 1.1 blocks on about 52/39/84 shooting (while with a 2.3 defensive box plus-minus) — the Knicks will be a "problem 😤😤😤."

Rozier sucked after the trade from the Hornets, but it was completely understandable, many of us would have given the circumstances.

He was traded on January 23 after playing on January 22, immediately thrust into a back-to-back on the 24th and 25th. He played 13 games in 22 days, between January 17 and February 7, never having more than one day's rest between games until the Heat were off between Feb. 7 and Feb. 11, and of course, the 11th was where he sprained his knee. 

Since returning, he's averaging 18.0 points, 6.0 assists and 4.4 rebounds on 48/39/93 shooting over seven games. Rozier has the capability of being the best (and other than Butler, only) true three-level scorer on the Heat, while also providing playmaking.

In his last 13 games, he's averaging 6.0 assists to 1.9 turnovers per contest, a better than 3-to-1 assist-to-turnover ratio, and the scoring has been coming along after a shaky start. 

He hasn't been in the playoffs since 2019, but was an integral part of a Celtic run in 2018 that saw him start in place of an injured Kyrie Irving all the way up to a home Game 7 against the last of Cav team with LeBron James.

A much younger Rozier struggled with his efficiency in the playoffs, shooting 41/35/82 splits, but averaged 16.5 points, 5.7 assists and 5.3 rebounds per game while only recording 1.2 turnovers per contest — a nearly 5-to-1 ratio. 

The Heat desperately need a reliable creator besides Butler and Adebayo, who can hurt you at three levels. Tyler Herro, currently injured again, is a skilled shooter, but not a three-level scorer. He still leads the team with a 27.9 usage, but he has a woeful .122 free throw rate. Of everyone in the NBA with a usage of 24 or higher, it's 62 players — Herro has easily the worst free throw rate. 

In English: No one statistically has the ball more and gets downhill less than Herro.

If the Heat are going to make another run, Rozier has a clear path to being their primary non-Butler or Adebayo reason. 

For their sake, it might have to be the case.