Raptors-Thunder Betting Guide: Can Short-Handed Toronto Compete on the Road?

Betting Odds: Toronto Raptors-Oklahoma City Thunder

• Spread: Thunder -4.5
• Over/Under: 227
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN

The Oklahoma City Thunder and the Toronto Raptors will face off on Wednesday as the Thunder look to snap a three-game losing streak.

The Raptors will be without their starting point guard Kyle Lowry, but are looking to take the first game of a home-and-home series with the Thunder. Our experts analysts break down the matchup below.

Betting Trends to Know

The Raptors (50-21, .704) opened as 4-point underdogs. Since 2005, teams that have won 70% or more of their games have gone 69-102-2 (40.4%) against the spread when listed as underdogs in March and April in the regular season. — John Ewing

The Thunder have been struggling since the All-Star break. In their 14 games since the break they are 5-9 SU and 3-11 ATS per our Bet Labs data. Over that span they have been:

• The second-least profitable bet in the NBA ahead of only the Lakers
• The second-worst offense per 100 possessions ahead of just the Knicks — Malik Smith

Thinking about betting on Russell Westbrook to record a Triple-Double against the Raptors?

Here is something to consider: Russell Westbrook has faced Kawhi Leonard 33 times in the regular season and playoffs. Westbrook has recorded a triple-double in just two of those 33 games (6%). — Evan Abrams

Mears: How I'm Betting Tonight's Game

The big question in this game is how much the Raptors care about winning this game. Let me explain.

Kyle Lowry, who is out tonight with a sprained ankle, is incredibly important to the Raptors. Per Cleaning the Glass, the Raptors have been 10.7 points per 100 possessions better with him on the court vs. off — the 95th percentile of all players. They’re 7.7 points/100 better on offense and 3.1 points/100 better on defense.

In 2,713 possessions without him, the Raptors have averaged a -1.0 point differential — obviously a huge drop off from their season-long mark that has propelled them to their incredible record. He’s quite important.

But it’s not because backup point guard Fred VanVleet is bad. In fact, the unit with VanVleet and the other typical starters — Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam and Serge Ibaka — has crushed opponents, outscoring them by 17.9 points/100.

The issue is the cascading effect of Lowry being out and VanVleet not bolstering the bench units. When the starters are out without Lowry, the team has been awful.

That’s actually a big departure from past seasons for the Raptors; historically, their biggest strength has been their bench. In fact, their bench was arguably the best unit in the history of basketball last season.

A lot of those guys are gone now due to trades to bolster the top-end talent in order to get ready for playoff basketball, where benches are less important. It’s understandable and the right strategy to win a title, but it could hurt them in this game.

Let’s get back to motivation.

In a playoff series or in a game they really want to win, the Raptors could elect the play the starters a couple more minutes to compensate for Lowry’s absence, and they’d likely be fine if they did that. But in a late-March game against a non-conference opponent, will they be motivated to do so?

If the answer is yes, they’re a value at +4.5 after opening at +2.5 before Lowry’s injury. If not, that 2-point swing is likely not large enough to account for the bench drop-off.

Editor’s note: The opinions on this game are from the individual writers and are based on their research, analysis and perspective. They are independent of, and may not always match with, the algorithm-driven Best Bets from Sports Insights.