The NBA Western Conference Finals continue tonight in Oklahoma City, as the top-seeded Thunder host the San Antonio Spurs for a highly anticipated Game 2 showdown. Oklahoma City is desperate for a signature bounce-back win on their home floor, while a fearless San Antonio squad will try to capitalize on the momentum built by their double-overtime victory in Game 1.
Continue below for our NBA best bets and player props for Thunder vs Spurs Game 2 on Wednesday, May 20.
NBA Best Bets for Thunder vs Spurs Game 2
| Game | Time (ET) | Pick |
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  | 8:30 p.m. | |
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| 8:30 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
| 8:30 p.m. | |
Specific betting recommendations come from the sportsbook offering preferred odds as of writing. Always shop for the best price using our NBA Odds page, which automatically surfaces the best lines for every game. | ||
Spurs vs. Thunder Spread Escalator
Game 1 has me shook, but I am not moving off my priors. This is a legendary Game 2 spot. Historically, home teams down 0-1 in Game 2 cover at a 60% clip (54-36-3 ATS) since 2003. When you isolate home teams that dropped Game 1 as a 7-point favorite or higher, that system trends up to 27-12 ATS (69%), with teams covering by an average of 6.6 points.
We just saw this play out last round with the Spurs and Wolves—Minnesota got blitzed in Game 2 after an upset.
San Antonio pushed their guys to the physical limit in that double-overtime battle, with starters logging between 44 and 51 minutes. So, with the road split already in the bag, the Spurs are highly incentivized to punt this game if it gets away early.
Plus, 14 of OKC's 15 home playoff wins since last year have come by double digits, averaging a 23-point margin of victory.
I’m skipping the normal -6.5 line to chase alt-spread blowout pricing at DraftKings and FanDuel:
- OKC -9.5: +156 (DraftKings)
- OKC -14.5: +259 (DraftKings)
- OKC -24.5: +870 (FanDuel)
- OKC -32.5: +1800 (FanDuel)
Pick: Thunder Spread Escalator
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Spurs vs. Thunder Player Prop
By Joe Dellera
We already saw this play out once in Game 1. Chet Holmgren was neutralized inside last game, finishing with only 8 points on 2-of-7 shooting despite playing 41 minutes of action in the double-overtime loss.
With Jalen Williams looking healthy and aggressive in his return to the lineup—pouring in 26 points on 11-of-25 field goal attempts in the opener—the offensive usage and half-court attempts are naturally shifting away from Chet.
More importantly, Chet historically struggles to establish his offense against San Antonio's unique interior length and simply does not score efficiently in this matchup, averaging a quiet 10.5 points per game against San Antonio during the regular season.
Expect Holmgren to focus his energy on defense, struggle to find clean looks inside against Wemby, and stay under this total in Game 2.
Pick: Chet Holmgren Under 13.5 Points (+100)
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Spurs vs. Thunder Team Total Bet
By Matt Moore
I am completely terrified of Victor Wembanyama right now, but I have a very clear operational script for how the Thunder adjust moving forward.
I'm taking the Spurs Team Total Under 104.5. Over the last two postseasons following an OKC loss, the opponent has gone under their team total in eight of those 10 games, missing their line by an average of 7.5 points per game.
The Thunder tend to force way more turnovers after losses, cranking up the physical pressure in seven of those 10 games. You can't throw lobs to a 7-foot-4 pterodactyl if you turn the ball over before the entry pass.
The Thunder are going to dig harder, run tighter contests on Julian Champagnie, and display better defensive discipline on Devin Vassell and Keldon Johnson.
More importantly, it seemed like OKC found something late with Lu Dort roughing up Wemby. Victor was 5-of-5 against Jalen Williams, but just 1-of-2 against Dort.
Expect Dort to turn this into a street fight with plenty of physical, extracurricular activity where San Antonio struggles to find clean half-court looks.
Pick: Spurs Team Total Under 104.5 (-105)
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Spurs vs. Thunder Prop Ladder
By Pick Labs
Our Pick Labs model has identified a mispricing in the milestone market for tonight’s Game 2, presenting a high-value opportunity on Ajay Mitchell. Our projections show a substantial edge on his points prop. The sweet spot on the ladder sits at 15+ Points (+282), where our model detects a 27.7% betting edge with a 53.9% implied probability to cash.
Because Mitchell boasts an elite scoring ceiling as we've seen throughout these playoffs, this is a textbook environment to skip the standard line and climb the ladder with alternate rungs at DraftKings:
- The Base Target: 15+ Points (+282) | 27.7% Edge
- The Alternate Escalator: 18+ Points (+620) | 22.6% Edge
- The Moonshot Lotto: 20+ Points (+1020) | 17.9% Edge
The market is reacting harshly to Mitchell's 4-point performance (2-of-5 FG) in Game 1, but a deeper look at the box score reveals his role remains pretty secure.
Despite Jalen Williams returning to the lineup and absorbing a massive 25 field goal attempts, Mitchell still logged 34 minutes of action. Williams was inefficient (11-of-25 FG) in the double-overtime loss, signaling an immediate schematic course correction from OKC's coaching staff could be on the way in Game 2.
While Mitchell's raw volume naturally takes a slight hit with J-Dub active, his historical tracking proves he can easily clear these alt-milestones even in shared lineups. Against Phoenix later in the season, he cleared 14+ points in three of four games—with Williams active for two of them.
When Mitchell is cut loose, his ceiling is lethal; he scored 18+ points in all four games against the Lakers last round, while eclipsing 20+ points in three of them.
Mitchell has cleared 18+ points in five of his last six games; and he's reached 20+ points in four of those contests. The volume won't be the same with J-Dub back in the lineup, but we still see value in sprinkling a few rungs on the ladder in Game 2 tonight.
Pick: Ajay Mitchell 15+ Points (+282)
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Spurs vs. Thunder Player Prop
While oddsmakers are hanging a low bar for De'Aaron Fox ahead of his expected return to the Spurs' lineup in Game 2, our Action Pro model is projecting him for 17.40 points tonight, presenting a massive 23.8% edge.
After sitting out San Antonio's thrilling double-overtime Game 1 victory with an ankle injury, Fox is expected back in the lineup tonight. Because the Spurs already secured the coveted road split, there is concern that the coaching staff might choose to play it safe, limiting his workload and monitoring his minutes.
However, even under the assumption of a scaled-back role, this 14.5-point line is still a fundamental mispricing at face value.
When on the floor, Fox's baseline production easily dwarfs this total.
He enters tonight having scored 16+ points in eight of his last nine games, while reaching 18+ points in six of those contests.
Pick: De'Aaron Fox Over 14.5 Points (-105)
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