Why There Is Value on These Western Conference Contenders

The Denver Nuggets are the defending NBA champions as they have reminded us over the last week or so with wins over the Warriors, Heat, and Lakers. However, that does not mean they are a lock to repeat. In the victory over the Heat, Jamal Murray left the game with an ankle injury and did not return. Murray did play the next game against the Lakers, but he favored his ankle at times. The situation bears monitoring given how well Murray elevates his game in the postseason.

In the last four years, Denver has had Murray available in the postseason twice. In those two years, it made the Western Conference Finals twice, winning the championship last season. In the other two years, the Nuggets were swept in the Suns in the second round and lost in five games to the Warriors in the first round the following season. The Nuggets are deeper than they were during those early exits and hardened with championship experience. However, the Bucks recently have shown, repeating becomes much more difficult when a team is down their second star.

Additionally, the West is deep as it has ever been with teams rostering LeBron James and Stephen Curry currently holding the nine and 10 seeds. More than ever, this year may see several series in the West decided by matchups. However, with the standings changing every day, we will not know those matchups until after the play-in tournament. As for right now, there are two teams that I have on that could be very difficult to face in the playoffs. Let’s begin in Oklahoma City.

Currently holding the second seed in the West is the Oklahoma City Thunder. Now, some may be quick to dismiss the Thunder in the postseason simply because they are young. However, one of the primary reasons that young teams struggle is because they do not defend at a high level. This Thunder team is currently fifth in defensive rating, right behind another young team in the Orlando Magic.

More pressing to me is their lack of size on the interior. I wrote about them needing to add a big man to help Chet Holmgren against the bigger opponents they will have to get through in the West. General Manager Sam Presti decided against that idea because of spacing and opted for Gordon Hayward. The 33-year old is not the player he was in his prime, but he does bring playoff experience. Quietly, so does their best player.

Of the Thunder young core, the "oldest" is Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at 25 years old. Gilgeous-Alexander made the postseason in each of his first two seasons, once in Los Angeles and after he was traded to Oklahoma City. His usage back then was not as high as it was then, but he still stepped up and hit big shots in critical moments. In 12 games over those two seasons, Gilgeous-Alexander averaged 15.1 points per game while shooting 44.7% from the field 43% from 3 and 91% from the free throw line. Since then, he has developed into a bonafide star and possible league MVP this season.

Gilgeous-Alexander has averaged over 31 points per game since the start of last season. He averaged 11 free throw attempts per game last season and is over nine this season. While he may not see as many free throw attempts in the postseason, Gilgeous-Alexander efficiently scores in several areas on the floor. Overall, he is shooting 54% from the field this season.

Speaking of efficiency, Jalen Williams is shooting 55% and 48% from 3 over his past 40 games while averaging 19.8 points in that span. He gives the Thunder a secondary creator behind Gilgeous-Alexander. He may not shoot 55% in the postseason, but if he can efficiently give Oklahoma City 20 points a night, it will be a very dangerous team this spring. Along with Gilgeous-Alexander and Williams, Holmgren is averaging 17.1 points and 2.6 blocks (fourth in the league). Their three best players are also two-way players, so they will not need to hide anyone defensively unlike some other contenders. Along with Lugentz Dort, that is why the Thunder have a top-five defense.

Additionally, some may fret about a particular matchup for the Thunder, such as the Lakers, who the Thunder are 1-3 against this season. The Lakers will have to first advance from the play-in tournament and in the event that they do, they may not get the Thunder in the first round anyway. If I told you the Thunder drew the Pelicans or Kings in the first round, would that make you feel better about their chances?

While the Thunder may not know their first round opponent until after the play-in tournament, what I do know right now is they have the pieces to make a deep run this postseason. There are currently two teams in the league that rank in the top five in both offensive and defensive rating- the Celtics and the Thunder . The Celtics are the prohibitive favorite to win the NBA Finals at +210 on FanDuel. The Thunder are +900 just to win the West and +2500 to win the title. That is a lot of value for the team that may hold the No. 1 seed in the West entering the playoffs.

Pick: +900 to win Western Conference and +2500 to win NBA Finals (DraftKings)

The Dallas Mavericks have lost five of their last six games. They will have a confounding loss like Sunday's defeat to the 76ers at home. Then, you watch Luka Doncic orchestrate an offense or Kyrie Irving toy with a defender and remember why no one will want to face them in a seven-game series. Doncic is averaging 34.6 points, nine rebounds, and 9.8 assists per game while Irving is averaging 25.7 points, 5.1 rebounds, and five assists per game as the second option.

Like the Lakers, the Mavericks may have to secure their spot in the postseason by advancing from the play-in tournament. Currently, they hold the eighth seed and are a half game up on the Lakers, but also just two games back of the sixth seed. If they are able to, they have two players capable of taking over a series.

In his postseason career, Doncic is averaging 32.5 points, 9.3 rebounds, and 7.9 assists. He torched the Clippers in consecutive first round series that he pushed to six and seven games. In 2022, he led the Mavericks to the Western Conference Finals, knocking off the top-seeded Suns in seven in the Western Conference Semifinals.

You can debate whether the Mavericks should have done more to keep that team together, particularly Jalen Brunson. However, they were able to land Irving last February. Irving is averaging 23.3 points and 4.8 assists in his postseason career and he will have no fear when it comes to taking and making big shots. Irving hit the game-winning basket to knock off the 73-9 Warriors in game seven of the 2016 NBA Finals.

At this year's trade deadline, Dallas acquired Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington. While neither is a star, along with Dereck Lively II, they give the Mavericks the size that to match up in the West. Dallas has the size and playoff experience that Oklahoma City lacks, but its struggles come on the defensive end.

Neither Doncic nor Irving is a high-level defender and the Mavericks had to trade wing defender Dorian Finney-Smith to acquire Irving. Grant Williams was also sent to Charlotte in the Washington trade after not being a good fit in Dallas. Lively shows potential of being a high-level rim protector and lob threat in the mold of Tyson Chandler, who anchored their defense during their last title run. However playing just 24.7 minutes this season, it remains to be seen whether or not head coach Jason Kidd will trust him to stay out of foul trouble in the playoffs.

Ultimately, the Mavericks will go as far as Doncic and Irving take them. If they are able to secure timely stops in clutch time, that will make them a dangerous team in the playoffs. It may even help them in a possible first round series against Minnesota, who currently holds the top seed. The Timberwolves have a -8.1 net rating in clutch time and have lost seven of their last 11 clutch time games.

Dallas is 17-8 with a +16.9 net rating in clutch time games this season. If the Mavericks are able to steal a close game or two per series, it could help them advance in the West. They are currently +1800 to win the West and +3200 to win the championship on FanDuel. With a pair of closers in Doncic and Irving, Dallas will be a tough out and have to be considered at those odds.

Pick: +1800 to win the Western Conference and +3200 to win NBA Finals (FanDuel)