2023 NCAA Tournament Odds: Expert Projections for First Round Matchups

2023 NCAA Tournament Odds: Expert Projections for First Round Matchups article feature image
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Isaiah Vazquez/NCAA Photos via Getty Images.

My initial reaction to the NCAA Tournament draw: Kansas got a raw deal. Houston is the No. 2 overall seed and gets a far more favorable draw in the Midwest region than the No. 3 Jayhawks.

NCAA Tournament odds are out, and my numbers are matched up with them. I'll be making player prop picks throughout the tournament and will unveil my bracket before games tip off.

Now, here are my projected spreads for the first round!

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West Region

No. 1 Kansas vs. No. 16 Howard

Koerner's Projected SpreadKansas -23.9
Actual SpreadKansas -21.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under142.4
Actual Over/Under145.5
Odds via FanDuel.

No. 8 Arkansas vs. No. 9 Illinois

Koerner's Projected SpreadArkansas -2.5
Actual SpreadArkansas -2
Koerner's Projected Over/Under140.5
Actual Over/Under145.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 5 Saint Mary's vs. No. 12 VCU

Koerner's Projected SpreadSaint Mary's -8
Actual SpreadSaint Mary's -5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under123.3
Actual Over/Under120.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 4 UConn vs. No. 13 Iona

Koerner's Projected SpreadUConn -13.5
Actual SpreadN/A
Koerner's Projected Over/Under142.5
Actual Over/UnderN/A
Odds via bet365.


No. 6 TCU vs. No. 11 Arizona State/Nevada

No odds available.

No. 3 Gonzaga vs. No. 14 Grand Canyon

Koerner's Projected SpreadGonzaga -19
Actual SpreadGonzaga -14.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under154
Actual Over/Under156.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 7 Northwestern vs. No. 10 Boise State

Koerner's Projected SpreadBoise State -1
Actual SpreadBoise State -1.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under127.7
Actual Over/Under128.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 2 UCLA vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville

Koerner's Projected SpreadUCLA -21
Actual SpreadUCLA -19.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under132.8
Actual Over/Under134.5
Odds via bet365.


East Region

No. 1 Purdue vs. No. 16 Texas Southern/Farleigh Dickinson

No odds available.

No. 8 Memphis vs. No. 9 Florida Atlantic

Koerner's Projected SpreadMemphis -1.7
Actual SpreadMemphis -2.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under147.1
Actual Over/Under151,5
Odds via bet365.

No. 5 Duke vs. No. 12 Oral Roberts

Koerner's Projected SpreadDuke -7
Actual SpreadDuke -7.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under143.9
Actual Over/UnderN/A
Odds via bet365.

No. 4 Tennessee vs. No. 13 Louisiana

Koerner's Projected SpreadTennessee -17.5
Actual SpreadTennessee -10
Koerner's Projected Over/Under135.9
Actual Over/Under136
Odds via bet365.


No. 6 Kentucky vs. No. 11 Providence

Koerner's Projected SpreadKentucky -3.5
Actual SpreadKentucky -3.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under147.5
Actual Over/UnderN/A
Odds via bet365.

No. 3 Kansas State vs. No. 14 Montana State

Koerner's Projected SpreadKSU -13.5
Actual SpreadKSU -9.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under135.8
Actual Over/UnderN/A
Odds via FanDuel.

No. 7 Michigan State vs. No. 10 USC

Koerner's Projected SpreadMSU -2
Actual SpreadMSU -1.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under137.9
Actual Over/UnderN/A
Odds via FanDuel.

No. 2 Marquette vs. No. 15 Vermont

Koerner's Projected SpreadMU -13
Actual SpreadMU -11
Koerner's Projected Over/Under146.7
Actual Over/Under145.5
Odds via bet365.


Midwest Region

No. 1 Houston vs. No. 16 Northern Kentucky

Koerner's Projected SpreadHouston -25.5
Actual SpreadHouston -20
Koerner's Projected Over/Under126.7
Actual Over/Under121.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 8 Iowa vs. No. 9 Auburn

Koerner's Projected SpreadAuburn -2
Actual SpreadAuburn -1
Koerner's Projected Over/Under150.9
Actual Over/Under153
Odds via bet365.

No. 5 Miami (FL) vs. No. 12 Drake

Koerner's Projected SpreadMiami -5.5
Actual SpreadMiami -4
Koerner's Projected Over/Under145.1
Actual Over/Under147.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 13 Kent State

Koerner's Projected SpreadIndiana -4.5
Actual SpreadIndiana -4
Koerner's Projected Over/Under137.5
Actual Over/Under140.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 6 Iowa State vs. No. 11 Mississippi State/Pittsburgh

No odds available.

No. 3 Xavier vs. No. 14 Kennesaw State

Koerner's Projected SpreadXavier -14
Actual SpreadXavier -11.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under151.2
Actual Over/Under155.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 7 Texas A&M vs. No. 10 Penn State

Koerner's Projected SpreadTexas A&M -4.5
Actual SpreadTexas A&M -2.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under141.6
Actual Over/Under133.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 2 Texas vs. No. 15 Colgate

Koerner's Projected SpreadTexas -16.5
Actual SpreadTexas -13
Koerner's Projected Over/Under149
Actual Over/Under147.5
Odds via bet365.


South Region

No. 1 Alabama vs. TBD

Odds not available.

No. 8 Maryland vs. No. 9 West Virginia

Koerner's Projected SpreadPick'em
Actual SpreadWVU -1.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under141.2
Actual Over/Under140.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 5 San Diego State vs. No. 12 Charleston

Koerner's Projected SpreadSDSU -8.5
Actual SpreadSDSU -4.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under139.5
Actual Over/Under141.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 4 Virginia vs. No. 13 Furman

Koerner's Projected SpreadVirginia -8.8
Actual SpreadVirginia -5.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under138.4
Actual Over/Under133.5
Odds via bet365.

No. 6 Creighton vs. No. 11 NC State

Koerner's Projected SpreadCreighton -7
Actual SpreadCreighton -4.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under144.2
Actual Over/UnderN/A
Odds via bet365.

No. 3 Baylor vs. No. 14 UC Santa Barbara

Koerner's Projected SpreadBaylor -13.4
Actual SpreadBaylor -10.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under147.4
Actual Over/UnderN/A
Odds via FanDuel.

No. 7 Missouri vs. No. 10 Utah State

Koerner's Projected SpreadUtah State -3.5
Actual SpreadUtah State -1.5
Koerner's Projected Over/Under159.5
Actual Over/Under154
Odds via bet365.

No. 2 Arizona vs. No. 15 Princeton

Odds not available because of New Jersey betting regulations.

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