2024 NCAA Tournament Odds, Picks: 4 Over/Under Bets for Colorado State vs Virginia, Alabama vs Charleston, More

2024 NCAA Tournament Odds, Picks: 4 Over/Under Bets for Colorado State vs Virginia, Alabama vs Charleston, More article feature image
Credit:

Brandon Sumrall/Getty Images. Pictured: Alabama’s Max Scharnowski (31) and Mark Sears (1).

The lowest productivity week of labor in the history of the United States comes during the opening week of March Madness.

Three dozen games will play out during the first four days of the tournament, and all roads lead to Phoenix for the national championship game on April 8.

What makes the tournament great is the differing styles and tempo of the 68 teams tasked with making the Final Four.

College basketball teams continue to move toward the highest shot quality selection at the rim and from 3, but the speed at which a team executes can vary.

The two best teams in Division I run offense at a pace outside the top 300, as Houston and UConn could be on a collision course.

Other teams prefer lightning-fast transition games to create havoc on defense and open shots on offense. Both Alabama and Arizona ran with a top-20 tempo in the nation, creating a mismatch for teams that want to play in the half-court.

This article will look at the adjusted tempo for each team in the NCAA Tournament, circling rosters that excel or deflate with a differing pace.

With tempo in mind, free-throw rate and offensive rebounding for rim-heavy teams can make or break a wager on totals. Here's a look at the adjusted tempo for every tournament team via KenPom:

Colorado State vs. Virginia

Total: 120 · Projection: 116.5

Virginia may have been the surprise selection of the tournament, but the committee paired the Cavaliers with another slow squad in Colorado State for Tuesday night's First Four matchup.

The Rams are familiar with slow-tempo teams, ranking 360th in defensive tempo to go along with their Mountain West schedule.

Offensive rebounds will be sparse in this game, as both squads rank in the bottom 100 of all Division I teams on the offensive glass. While easy putbacks are not expected, trips to the free-throw line are also in jeopardy.

Virginia ranks top-25 in defensive free-throw rate, congruent with a rank of 349th in offensive rebound rate. Most Cavaliers games were void of quick offensive rebound putbacks and trips to the charity stripe.

Look for this total to decline closer to tip-off.

Pick: Under 120


Dayton vs. Nevada

Total: 136.5 · Projection: 139.5

Two of the tournament's slower teams will pair up in the high elevation of the Delta Center in Salt Lake City on Thursday.

Dayton and Nevada will meet after producing two of the slowest adjusted tempo rates in the nation. The advanced statistics suggest neither team will have an easy path to points.

Nevada gets to the free-throw line at the third-highest rate in nation, drawing more fouls than nearly any team in the country. However, Dayton produces the same numbers on the defensive side of the ball, ranking third in defensive free-throw rate.

Conversely, the Flyers' heavy long-range attack will be challenged by a Wolf Pack defnse that ranks top 40 against 3-point attempts.

Pick: Under 136.5


Alabama vs. Charleston

Total: 173 · Projection: 177

A blitzkrieg of tempo comes to Spokane when the Crimson Tide meet the Cougars on Friday.

Both teams' overall tempo rates may be diluted on the defensive side. Alabama runs the third-fastest offensive tempo, while Charleston slips inside the top 45.

Alabama and Charleston both love to play in lightning-quick transition situations, dominating opponents on the offensive boards.

The Crimson Tide defense has failed to stop any opponent over the past several weeks. Alabama ranks as one of the worst teams in the tournament in terms of turning over opponents, indicating Charleston will have plenty of clean shots and offensive rebounds.

Alabama’s main distribution of points comes from behind the arc, where it ranks 35th in 3-point percentage. No matter if the Tide are up or down at any point of the game, a long-distance shot is the first shot selection.

Pick: Over 173

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Nick Sterling
Apr 27, 2024 UTC