March is such a magical time of the year. The NCAA Tournament is the grandest singular betting event in American sports, and the pageantry surrounding the event seems to get better and better each year. We all remember the historic upsets, improbable Cinderella runs made and the heartbreak felt when it finally comes to a close.
For this piece, I'm talking about some of the lower-seeded teams that are fully equipped and capable of making a run to the Sweet 16 and beyond.
The gap between the 1-4 seeds and the 13-16 seeds appears wider than ever, with every point spread in the betting menu in excess of 13 points. This NCAA Tournament — and the matchups involving 1-4 seeds — may produce a lot of compelling ideas and wishes, but it's going to take heroic efforts from the lower-seeded programs this year in order to pull massive upsets.
There are some very compelling matchups on the 6-11 seed line, though, meaning we could see some noise out of some 11 seeds.
Akron Zips (12 Seed)
Akron as a 12-seed is very compelling. The Zips catch Texas Tech in the early window on Friday, and the Red Raiders have been vulnerable at times against teams that push the tempo.
In the non-conference, Texas Tech was taken to the wire by Wake Forest in a neutral setting and also struggled badly with the up-and-down style Northern Colorado deployed in mid-December.
Losses down the stretch against UCF, Arizona State and a depleted BYU team lead me to believe the Red Raiders are vulnerable here. JT Toppin is such a force in the middle, and Texas Tech is certainly going to miss him in the paint against Akron.
The Zips are very athletic, much more than you would figure for a MAC team. Amani Lyles and Evan Mahaffey can score at the rim and in the mid-range, and Tavari Johnson and Shammah Scott can shoot the ball from deep.
Akron has the best defense in the MAC by a wide margin, giving it a chance compete in this matchup.
If it were to get past Texas Tech, an up-and-down matchup with Alabama would be next. Bama also struggled with tempo-based offenses in USF and Kennesaw State in the non-conference.
The Tide are also dealing with distractions as star guard Aden Holloway was just arrested and charged with first-degree possession of marijuana with failure to affix tax stamps. While it's uncertain if he's set to miss games, the distraction is still there.
There's a path for Akron to make some noise in this tournament, as the Zips are playing in their third consecutive NCAA Tournament, and this is John Groce’s best team during this stretch.
This is a dangerous bunch.
VCU Rams (11 Seed)
VCU is an interesting team out of the A-10. The Rams defeated Virginia Tech and USF in the non-conference and took NC State to the wire, as well.
Their high-pressure defense causes fits for opponents, and they're well coached by Phil Martelli Jr. We could see a little Martelli magic in the NCAA Tournament against UNC, which, at times, played down to its opponents this season.
It’s not just the losses against Stanford and Cal in league play that were concerning; this group was in fights for a half with Radford and St. Bonaventure, and it also struggled putting Wake Forest away.
UNC's operation hasn't looked the same in neutral environments, and VCU has shown that it can play ball with high-major teams this season.
A potential second-round bout with Illinois would pit Lazar Djokovic up against Illinois’ Tomislav Ivisic, providing a unique European big man matchup. The Illini have lost five of nine down the stretch and could have a tight game with VCU in the second round.
The Rams have a path to making some noise here.
SMU Mustangs (11 Seed)
SMU is an interesting team to consider. The Ponies snuck into the NCAA Tournament and will find themselves in Dayton, Ohio, this week participating in the First Four.
We've seen numerous examples of teams using the First Four as a springboard to making a deep NCAA Tournament run, and I think SMU has the goods to do that.
Getting B.J. Edwards back from injury would be a huge boost, but as-is, SMU can win some games. With victories over Texas A&M, UNC and Louisville (plus taking Duke to the wire on the road at Cameron Indoor), SMU has shown the ceiling for this group is high.
The Vols have faded a bit down the stretch and really struggled on the road or in neutral settings this season. Ja’Kobi Gillespie is just 10 for his last 46 from deep, and electric swing-man Nate Ament has also been up-and-down recently.
If SMU can get past Tennessee, it's already shown its ability to go toe-to-toe with the best teams in the ACC. While not the most-likely scenario, SMU has shown its ability to take the best teams in the ACC to the brink, and we could see that here in the Round of 32.
TCU Horned Frogs (9 Seed)
While not considered a darkhorse Cinderella, TCU has to be taken seriously. The Horned Frogs won eight of nine games in Big 12 play down the stretch and holds wins over Florida, Iowa State and Texas Tech this season.
TCU also took Michigan to the wire and did the same to Kansas (twice). While I'm not ready to go out on a limb and say they'll beat Duke, the Horned Frogs can play with anybody in the country, something they've proven time and time again.
There's a viable path to seeing another TCU/Kansas matchup in the NCAA Tournament, and after two epic battles already this season, there's no reason to think we would be in for anything other than another nail-biter if we get a third.
