March Madness is here, which means it's time to get to know the mid-majors in your bracket.
The NCAA tournament is all about Cinderellas and upsets, so it's important to get to know those underdogs.
History can teach us a lot.
Here are 19 trends and facts you need to know about this year's mid-majors.
Note: Data below includes the modern tournament since the expansion to 64 teams in 1985 unless otherwise noted. It excludes First Four game data, unless otherwise noted.
Don't Overlook the First Four
Will you be watching the First Four games on Tuesday and Wednesday night?
A First Four winner has won at least one game in the Round of 64 in all but two of the 14 tournaments since the play-in games were introduced. Only one of those was a 16-seed (Fairleigh Dickinson in 2023), so that likely means one of the two other First Four winners to consider for a first-round upset.
In fact, five teams from the First Four have made at least the Sweet 16 — that's 36% of all tourneys with a play-in — with both 2011 VCU and 2021 UCLA making it all the way to the Final Four.
History says these games matter!
The American Conference's Best Days Are Gone
The American is now 18-22 SU since its one-off year with Louisville and UConn, with 16 of those 18 wins coming against eight-seeds or lower.
The conference has had remarkable luck drawing lower-seeded teams in the bracket. Even so, the conference is just 11-10 in the first round and 4-7 in the second during that stretch.
Many of those wins came against Houston, which has departed for the Big 12, so this may no longer be a top mid-major.
South Florida is 1-3 in the modern tournament, with its lone win back in 2012. But the Bulls did win the CBI in 2019!
Keep an Eye on A-10
History says the Atlantic 10 is underrated.
The A10 is 16-9-3 ATS (64%) as a seed favorite over the past two decades, and it's often better as an underdog. As an 11-to-13-seed, Atlantic 10 teams are 12-13 SU since 2009, with eight of the 13 (62%) teams getting at least one win.
VCU has made just one Sweet 16, en route to its play-in run to the 2011 Final Four, while St. Louis has never made the Sweet 16 in the modern era.
Billikens coach Josh Schertz makes his NCAA tournament debut, but previously led Indiana State and current St. Louis player Robbie Avila to the NIT finals in 2024. Schertz also made multiple Division II Final Fours with Lincoln Memorial, so he's no stranger to tournament success.
But be careful. Since Butler left the conference in 2013, Atlantic 10 teams are just 4-6 SU as seed favorites and an ugly 4-8 SU in toss-up games with a seed difference of three or less.
Deep Sleepers in CUSA
Conference USA has been a major threat for upsets in recent years.
The CUSA has won at least one game in six of the past 10 tournaments (60%), including upsets by 12-, 13-, 13-, 14-, and 15-seeds over top-5 seeds. And that doesn't even include Florida Atlantic's 2023 Final Four run as a nine-seed.
But since FAU left the conference, the past two representatives have been soundly crushed. Kennesaw State will hope to change that, as the Owls make only their second tournament appearance ever. They lost by just five points as a 14-seed in 2023.
Bows Against Smaller Squads
Everyone loves Hawaii, and the Rainbow Warriors are hoping to add to their only modern tourney win as a 13-seed back in 2016.
The Big West is 7-34 since UNLV left the conference in 1991.
Hawaii is filled with upperclassmen and could be very matchup dependent. The Bows are a big team that rebounds well and funnels 2s while totally taking away 3s, so they could push against a smaller opponent. They feature an odd, no-help defensive style that could give the wrong team fits.
Can High Point Buck History?
High Point is a rare top-100 KenPom team from the Big South, and the Panthers are back after making their tournament debut last March.
But be careful trusting Big South teams. They're an awful 1-30 all-time in the tournament, with the lone conference win coming from 11-seed Winthrop in 2007, which doubled as the conference's highest seed.
In fact, the last 10 Big South teams that escaped the play-in all lost by double digits, and the conference is 1-8 ATS as a seed underdog over the past decade.
History suggests this might be the Panthers' high point.
Is CAA Trending Up or Down as a Dog?
Hofstra is 0-2 in the modern NCAA Tournament and back for the first time in 25 years, one year after changing from the Flying Dutchmen to the Pride.
The CAA was once a dangerous home of underdogs and has the best conference record at 23-12-2 ATS over the past two decades, but the conference is now winless in 12 years since losing some of its top teams like VCU, George Mason, and Old Dominion.
Still, CAA teams have only failed to cover seven of their past 22 appearances at 14-7-1 ATS (67%) — though they've now failed to cover in five of their last six, so Speedy Claxton's guys will hope to buck recent trends.
Gonzaga Hasn't Met Expectations
It's Gonzaga's last season in the WCC, and that could be for the best. The conference is just 18-27-1 ATS (40%) over the past decade, ahead of only the Mountain West.
Mark Few is 44-25 in the tournament with Gonzaga — that's a lot of games! Few has made the Round of 32 in 16 straight tournaments and 23-of-26 in his career, but he's made only seven Elite Eights and just two Final Fours. Few is a pristine 22-3 in the first round but falls quickly to 13-9 in the second round, and 9-13 after that.
As a top-four seed, Few is just 13-24-1 ATS (35%) in his career, the least profitable coach tracked by Action Labs over the past two decades. He's 8-16 ATS (33%) as a seed favorite of at least five spots, and he's also 6-11-1 ATS when facing a top-four seed.
Translation: Gonzaga punched above its weight as an underdog but has struggled to match expectations since gaining status as one of the nation's relative blue bloods.
Horizon Struggles Post-Butler
Butler used to be the class of the Horizon League, but the conference has won only once in 13 tournaments since the Bulldogs left, with Horizon teams averaging a loss of over 15 points per game.
Wright State was the best in this year's Horizon League and survived with a big comeback in the conference finals. The Raiders were 1983 Division-II national champs, and second-year coach Clint Sargent has coached in four previous NCAA tournaments but has yet to win a game.
The Big Sky's Lousy History
Idaho is back in the tournament for the first time since 1990, and the Vandals weren't expected to get here after finishing seventh in the middling Big Sky.
Idaho is 0-2 in the modern tournament, and Big Sky teams are 3-40 with a double-digit loss in 15 of their last 18 tournament games, with an average loss of almost 19 points per game during the stretch.
Big Sky teams are 4-15-1 ATS over the past two decades (21%), including 1-6-1 ATS (14%) over the past decade as a seed 'dog.
MAAC Letdowns
MAAC fans will remember Saint Peter's remarkable run to the Elite Eight in 2022, but the conference is just 6-14 ATS (30%) this century outside of that great Peacocks run.
The MAAC is also 1-3 ATS in play-in games, though its one win and cover came last year by Mount St. Mary's.
Siena has a trio of tournament upsets since 2010 and has technically won at least one tournament game in four of its six appearances, counting the play-in round. The Saints are coached by March legend Gerry McNamara — Syracuse fans remember!
MAC Upsets
The MAC has been the story of the season, with Miami (OH) going unbeaten the entire regular season before losing its first conference tournament game, opening the door for Akron to win the tournament and make this a two-bid conference.
The MAC has often been a story in March Madness.
Nine of the last 16 MAC tournament teams either won outright or kept it to single digits. That includes a trio of wins by 13-seeds and another by a 14-seed, though 13-seed Ohio in 2021 was the only MAC team to reach the Sweet 16 since 2002.
The 12-to-14-seed has been the sweet spot for MAC teams. In 28 games as a seed in that range, the conference has nine upset wins along with eight losses by seven or less. Historically, that means a 61% chance of a close, dangerous game against one of these teams.
The RedHawks have three previous tourney wins, but they have only made the tournament once this century, back in 2007.
The Zips are making their third consecutive appearance but are winless in the modern tourney at 0-7. But head coach John Groce isn't winless. He's 4-6 and was responsible for the MAC's biggest upset, leading 14-seed Ohio over Georgetown in 2010. Groce is an impressive 7-3 ATS in tournament games.
Many of the underlying metrics suggest Akron is better than Miami.
Miami was the story of the regular season, but don't be surprised if it's Akron that makes noise in the postseason.
MEAC Fades
Howard was the best of the MEAC this season, but the Bison have just two appearances in the Round of 64, losing both by at least 28.
Not that that's anything new for the MEAC. The conference is an ugly 3-32 all-time and has lost its last nine games by at least 18 points.
The MEAC is 4-10 ATS (29%) outside of the play-in over the past two decades.
Mountain West Tournament History — Yikes!
Even coming off a solid tournament, the Mountain West remains one of the most disappointing conferences in the tournament.
The MWC is just 21-19 SU as a seed favorite, and it has only four seed-upset wins since 2007 despite multiple entries most years.
The conference has only once seen one of its teams advance past the Sweet 16, with 2023 San Diego State upsetting one-seed Alabama that season to break the curse en route to the title game. But it was otherwise a seed favorite, lucking into a path against 12, 13, 6, and nine seeds.
Double-digit MWC seeds are an awful 3-32 all-time, with only seven of those losses by seven or less, and the conference is 13-22 SU in games with a seed margin of three or less this century.
The conference is 13-26 ATS (33%) over the past decade, by far the worst conference per Action Labs, and that's just as true at 27-54-2 ATS (33%) over the past two decades.
It gets even worse at 10-29-1 ATS (26%) for MWC teams seeded in the 6-to-11 range, and the conference is 8-24-1 ATS (25%) the last two decades as a seed underdog.
Utah State has a great KenPom rating but a lot of history to buck. And the Aggies are responsible for plenty of it, at 2-15 SU in the tournament.
Northern Iowa on Cinderella Watch
It's almost always a good idea to keep an eye on the Missouri Valley teams in your bracket.
Nine of the past 12 MVC teams seeded eight-or-worse have won at least one game, including 11-seed Drake last spring. In fact, 12 of the last 16 MVC teams have won at least a first-round game, including 10 straight at one point.
The conference has also been dangerous against the top teams in the bracket. The MVC has eight wins this century against top-three seeds, all of them as a seven-seed or lower.
One of its most famous wins came by Northern Iowa back in 2010, when the nine-seed Panthers stunned one-seed Kansas on a late shot by Ali Farokhmanesh to advance to the Sweet 16.
This is Northern Iowa's first tournament appearance in a decade, but the Panthers are 5-8 in the modern tournament and well ahead of expectations, with at least one win in each of their three straight berths.
Northern Iowa allows the fewest points per game in the nation and plays at one of the slowest paces in the Valley, which could make the Panthers one of the most dangerous mid-majors in the entire bracket.
The Ivy Breeds Upset, but Penn?
The Ivy League has been a source of upsets and close calls in recent years.
In 14 tournaments since 2010, the Ivy now has wins by the following seeds: 12, 12, 12, 12, 13, 14, 15, and 15. The conference also lost three games in that stretch by two points.
Ivy teams tend to play smart basketball, ramp up the 3s for variance as underdogs, and don't beat themselves. The conference has won eight of its past 14 tournaments, with at least one win in six (43%).
Is Penn next in line? The Quakers are 1-13 in the modern tournament and have appeared only once since 2007, but first-year coach Fran McCaffery is no stranger to the dance. He'll lead his fifth team into the tournament, one off the all-time NCAA record.
McCaffrey is 6-11 SU in his tournament career. That includes 6-3 in the first round, but it also means the longtime coach has never made the Sweet 16. McCaffrey is 6-10 ATS (38%) in the tournament over the past two decades, including 1-5 ATS as a seed underdog.
First-Time Dancers
The Queens Royals are going dancing for the first time ever.
Queens and California Baptist are our only two first-timers in 2026.
This is actually the first NCAA tournament the Royals have ever been eligible for after moving up from Division II in 2022. Though you might be thinking New York, Queens actually plays in Curry Arena in Charlotte, North Carolina.
Queens represents the Atlantic Sun, now 4-22 in the modern tournament. Those four wins have come by 12, 14, and 15-seeds, with the 15-seed Florida Gulf Coast winning twice in 2013!
Troy Hasn't Won a Postseason Game Since 1993 Natty
The Sun Belt has had five tournament upsets since 2008, but has cooled off after a torrid stretch, now winless since 2016.
The conference is 7-22 all-time, and its last four 12-seeds won at least one game.
Troy is seeking its first NCAA tournament win at 0-3 in the modern tourney. In fact, the Trojans are also winless in the NIT and CBI, so their last tournament win of any type was the Division II national title in 1993!
WCC Sadness
It's a big tournament for the WCC with three teams going dancing, but non-Gonzaga WCC teams are an ugly 7-18 SU this century.
Santa Clara is back for its first appearance since 1996, though Herb Sendek is no stranger to the NCAA tournament, with a history of upset wins and an impressive 7-8 SU record given his teams' seeds. The Broncos also authored one of the all-time March Madness upsets, a 15-seed upset over a two-seed Arizona back in 1993 when freshman Steve Nash hit his free throws late.
St. Mary's has been in the tournament much more often but hasn't found success, now 6-11 SU under Randy Bennett. The Gaels have been an eight-seed or better seven times and have combined for just four wins, well short of expectations. Bennett is also 2-8 ATS as a seed underdog, the least profitable coach tracked in Action Labs.
Happy bracketting. May the odds be ever in your favor!
