It's hard to pick against Duke in the East Region.
That said, there's plenty of intrigue across this quarter of the bracket, including an elite point guard, a potential bracket-busting American squad, and an 8-vs-9 matchup featuring a complete contrast in styles.
Read about all that and more in my 2026 NCAA Tournament East Region Preview.
East Region Favorite
Duke (-135 to win East Region)
The Blue Devils notched the number one overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. They finished with a 32-2 record, and their only losses (to North Carolina and Texas Tech) came after Duke led by double-digits.
Duke has a very similar style to last season.
It has one of the best defenses in America, ranking second nationally in defensive efficiency. There’s no easy way to score on Duke. The Devils limit teams to 30% shooting from 3 (21st) and 46% from 2 (23rd). Many possessions wind up with Duke forcing opponents to toss up late-shot-clock 3s — and the Blue Devils end nearly every possession with a rebound.
The potential concerns lie in the injury department.
Starting guard Caleb Foster might miss the whole tournament, while Patrick Ngongba missed the ACC Tournament. Even if either plays, they could be less than 100% to start March Madness.
Without them, Duke had to scratch and claw for an ACC title. Florida State had a chance to beat Duke at the buzzer. The Blue Devils went on to beat a mediocre Clemson team and barely sneak by Virginia.
That isn’t the look of a dominant team.
But they still have the nation’s best player, Cameron Boozer.
Boozer is such a unique player because he’s a power forward who can play point guard. He is the ball-screen operator, while Isaiah Evans and other shooters often are the screen setters. Boozer is averaging 22 points, 10 rebounds, and four assists per game while shooting 40% from 3.
The Blue Devils' offense is strong. They rank fourth nationally in offensive efficiency while shooting over 60% from inside the arc.
But they could be a little weak in the 3-point shooting department. Foster’s injury could be a hit, as he’s a 40% 3-point shooter. Evans shoots 36% from deep, but he’s streaky. Nikolas Khamenia and Darren Harris both shoot around 34%, but Cayden Boozer and Dame Sarr are sub-30% shooters.
Boozer can carry this team, but Duke isn’t the best team in the country as currently constructed.
East Region Winner
Duke (+155 to win East Region)
I can’t pick against Duke.
The Blue Devils have their issues. But they’re still one of the nation’s best teams on a bad night, and inarguably the nation’s best team on a good night. That’s what an elite defense does for a squad.
Regarding the other contenders, I’m out on UConn, Michigan State, and Kansas as legitimate region winners.
UConn isn’t elite on either end of the court, plus Silas Demary is hurt. Michigan State still can’t shoot, and its defense has trended down. For Kansas, the Darryn Peterson Saga is ongoing.
St. John’s has a shot. If Foster is out, the Red Storm can make life tough on Duke’s ball-handlers with pressure. Zuby Ejiofor and Bryce Hopkins can throw their size as Boozer, deterring him from scoring too much on the interior.
Still. I think Duke is the pick.
Potential Bracket Buster
South Florida (+15000 to win East Region)
Count me in on South Florida, which steamrolled the AAC en route to the Big Dance.
The Bulls will have a favorable matchup in the first round against Louisville, which plays a style similar to USF's.
Then it will likely face three-seed Michigan State. Facing Tom Izzo in March is never easy, but South Florida has the style to topple the Spartans.
A good chunk of South Florida’s offense comes from shooting. It attempts 3s on 43% of its field goal attempts, but makes just 33%.
I think South Florida is better at shooting than the numbers say. Wes Enis and Joseph Pinion are snipers. Enis leads the team with 16.3 points per game while shooting 36.7% from deep, while Pinion averages 14.5 points per game and shoots 38.3% from deep.
However, the Bulls aren’t “live and die” by the 3. Even when USF misses its 3s, it grabs 38% of the misses. Starting big-man Izaiyah Nelson is terrific, recording a 14.6% offensive rebound rate — a top 40 mark in the country.
Let’s talk about what really should scare opponents about South Florida. It can really, really defend.
The Bulls are 11-0 since February 1st, ranking 22nd nationally in defensive efficiency during the stretch. They held opponents to just 45% shooting on 2s across those 11 games — and a troubling 41% from 3, but there’s some variance involved there.
If you told me that I could grab a 12-to-1 ticket on a team that shoots it as South Florida can, boasts a top-25 level defense, crashes the offensive glass, and forces turnovers to make the Sweet 16, I would bet that immediately.
At the minimum, I think South Florida will navigate through Louisville and expose a faltering Michigan State defense.
Player To Watch: Donovan Dent
Point Guard, UCLA
Last season, UCLA landed one of the top portal guards in the country in Donovan Dent, a New Mexico native.
But it took almost the entire season for Mick Cronin to utilize the speedy guard properly. Though he did finally figure it out.
Dent got hurt and missed the rest of the Big Ten semifinal game against Purdue, but Mick Cronin said he’ll be fine.
Prior to the Purdue game, Dent was on a seven-game stretch in which he dished out 77 assists to just six turnovers. You won’t find a better stretch from a point guard.
UCLA kicks off its run in the NCAA Tournament as 6.5-point favorites against UCF before a potential date in a winnable game against UConn.
The age-old saying is: guards win games in March, and Dent is the best point guard in the region.
Best First-Round Matchup
TCU vs. Ohio State
The most fun game will be South Florida vs Louisville.
But the one with the most stakes will be TCU vs Ohio State
The Horned Frogs have a knack for playing top-tier teams hard. They beat Florida and Wisconsin. They nearly beat Michigan earlier this year. A potential date with Duke provides some intrigue.
In this matchup, I’m curious to see how Bruce Thornton plays against TCU’s defense, which will aim to keep him out of the paint and blitz ball screens.
The plan of attack will be to throw size at Thornton and force others to make plays. If John Mobley, Devin Royal, and Taison Chatman can score, that’ll help. But TCU’s physicality and toughness could make it difficult for Ohio State to score.
Plus, the Horned Frogs have a trio of bigs who can thrash the Buckeyes porous rim defense.
David Punch is a monster. He averaged 14 points and 6 rebounds per game this season and scored 50 points across two Big 12 tournament games. Xavier Edmonds is the second leading scorer on TCU’s roster at 12.6 points per game, while Micah Robinson pitches in 10.6 points per game.
It’s a total contrast between these two teams. Ohio State wants to win through its guards, and TCU wants to win through its bigs. That should make for a fun battle.
NCAA Tournament Kalshi Odds
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