Top-seeded Michigan will be a tough out in the Midwest Region, but I see two sleeper squads that pose bracket-busting threats.
I also expect the 8-vs-9 matchup in this region to be an instant classic.
Read about all that and more in my 2026 NCAA Tournament Midwest Region Preview.
Midwest Region Favorite
Michigan (-130 to win Midwest Region)
In a Midwest Region featuring several top-tier teams, Michigan is still the team to beat.
While, in most cases, laying anything worse than plus-money on a team to win its region is rather excessive, it’s well-deserved for the Wolverines, who tore it up this season, finishing 31-3.
The Wolverines are elite on defense, allowing just 68 points per game while leading the nation in efficiency.
When evaluating title contenders, I look for experience, versatility, defensive prowess, size, and depth. The Wolverines check every box.
Michigan’s floor general Elliot Cadeau was an exceptional transfer portal addition, as he perfectly blends together an offense that can score all over the floor.
The final attribute I look for in a potential national champion is star power. Yaxel Lendeborg provides that in spades.
Midwest Region Winner
Michigan (-130 to win Midwest Region)
In spite of arguably the most difficult region in the 2026 NCAA Tournament, I have Coach May’s Wolverines reigning supreme, advancing from the Midwest Region to make their first Final Four appearance since 2018.
I suspect the winner of a likely Sweet Sixteen matchup between Iowa State and Virginia will pose a very difficult test for Michigan in the Elite Eight.
Still, I have faith in Michigan.
Midwest Region Sleepers
Virginia (+1100), Santa Clara (+7500)
Ryan Odom’s bunch may be the most overlooked team in the entire tournament field.
Odom is no stranger to March, having previously made a name for himself at UMBC, VCU, and Utah State.
The Cavaliers score over 80 points per game while ranking in the top 30 nationally in offensive efficiency. They also rank in the top 15 nationally in defensive efficiency.
The frontcourt is elite behind Thijs De Ridder and two 7-footers in Johann Grunlow and Ugonna Onyeso. Ridder scores over 16 points per game, while the latter duo serves as an elite rim-protecting duo.
Additionally, Malik Thomas leads an experienced backcourt.
Virginia has won 15 of its past 15 contests, with the only losses coming during that stretch to Duke.
The Cavs can make an Elite Eight run.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if Santa Clara made a Sweet Sixteen run.
The Broncos have a high-octane offense, averaging nearly 83 points per game while ranking in the top 25 nationally in efficiency. They’re also an elite rebounding team behind 7-foot-1 center Bukky Oboye. Plus, they have backcourt experience behind 6-foot-4 sophomore guard Christian Hammond.
At a minimum, the Broncos could upset Kentucky in the first round. They have the size to frustrate Otega Oweh.
Best First-Round Matchup
Saint Louis vs. Georgia
The Midwest Region will feature several closely-contested matchups, but Georgia-Saint Louis should absolutely go down to the wire.
Mike White’s Bulldogs are looking to rebound after last year’s 30-point first-round loss to Gonzaga. This is Georgia's first back-to-back tournament appearance since 2002.
6-foot-1 guard Jeremiah Wilkinson has broken out, averaging 17 points per game, while running mate Blue Cain rounds out a backcourt with plenty of talent. The Bulldogs also boast an excellent defensive frontcourt led by Somto Cyril and Kanon Catchings.
Those two will be key in this matchup, as they’ll have to effectively defend superstar forward Robbie Avila.
Josh Schertz added plenty of depth around Avila, boasting a legit nine-man rotation with five players averaging over 10 points per game.
Georgia’s interior defense is elite, but Saint Louis leads in the country in 3-point shooting behind Trey Green’s 45% clip.
This should be among the best first-round matchups of the tournament.
NCAA Tournament Kalshi Odds
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