When the NCAA Tournament bracket comes out, it's natural to look at the 5-seed vs. 12-seed matchups to figure out which one of them will happen.
The tournament expanded in 1985. Since then, there have been 57 upsets by 12-seeds over 5-seeds, including at least one in five out of the last six NCAA Tournaments.
To dig further into the data, at least two 12-seeds have upset a 5-seed in 18 of the 40 tournaments since expansion, including the past two years (2025: McNeese over Clemson, Colorado State over Memphis; 2024: Grand Canyon over Saint Mary’s, JMU over Wisconsin).
There hasn’t been a year where every 12-seed beat the 5-seed yet, but there have been five tournaments where three 12-seeds won, most recently in 2019.
So, which 12-seed will pull off the first-round win this year? Let's take a look at my 2026 NCAA Tournament upset picks and March Madness predictions.
No. 12 Northern Iowa Over No. 5 St. John's
St. John's has been rolling of late, winning 12 of its last 13 games, but the Big East has been down this year, ranking fifth in conference net rating, just ahead of the Mountain West.
The Red Storm played three NCAA Tournament teams in the nonconference this year, losing all three games. In fact, their best nonconference win came against 16-16 Baylor in late November.
Northern Iowa boasts a top-25 defense that sits in the 99th percentile when it comes to guarding spot-up jumpers and the 91st percentile in guarding post-ups.
As good as Zuby Ejiofor has been for St. John's, I trust UNI to make things tough for him.
Offensively, Northern Iowa is led by Trey Campbell, who averages 13.7 points per game. Campbell is a veteran guard who's at his best off catch-and-shoot jumpers. In those situations beyond the arc, Campbell is shooting 37%.
Leon Bond III, who started his career at Virginia, can also be a matchup problem for opposing defenses.
Bond is a vet who knows how to get to his spot in the half-court and will show off his athleticism in transition, where he's shooting 71% on the season.
No. 12 Akron Over No. 5 Texas Tech
Texas Tech has picked up some huge wins, even initially without JT Toppin.
But the Red Raiders have dropped three in a row heading into March Madness, with things going from bad to worse in Texas Tech’s 22-point loss to Iowa State when Christian Anderson left the game due to injury.
During their three-game losing streak, the Red Raiders rank 136th in defensive efficiency, 273rd in offensive rebound rate and 289th in Wins Above Bubble, via Bart Torvik.
With no Toppin and a banged-up Anderson, a thin Texas Tech team will have to have all hands on deck against an explosive Akron team.
The Zips are one of the hottest teams in the country, winning 10 in a row and 19 of their last 20.
Their offense ranks eighth in effective field-goal percentage, 12th in 2-point percentage and 14th in 3-point percentage.
Led by Tavari Johnson — who averages 20 points per game — the Zips can shoot their way into an upset over a banged-up Texas Tech team.
