The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Florida Gators in Gainesville, Florida. Tip-off is set for 8:30 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Florida is favored by 9.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -425. The total is set at 167.5 points.
Here’s my Arkansas vs. Florida prediction and college basketball picks for February 28, 2026.
Arkansas vs Florida Prediction
My Pick: Over 167.5
My Arkansas vs Florida best bet is on the over. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arkansas vs. Florida Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+9.5 -105 | 167.5 -110o / -110u | +325 |
| Florida Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-9.5 -115 | 167.5 -110o / -110u | -425 |
- Arkansas vs Florida spread: Florida -9.5, Arkansas +9.5
- Arkansas vs Florida over/under: 167.5 Points
- Arkansas vs Florida moneyline: Arkansas +325, Florida -425
Arkansas vs Florida College Basketball Betting Preview
Arkansas Basketball
Arkansas has surged into the thick of the SEC race, climbing to second place by winning eight of its past 10.
The Razorbacks are doing it with an elite offense that has become utterly unstoppable as the season has unfolded. They rank fourth nationally and first in the SEC in offensive efficiency, per KenPom, overwhelming teams with shot-making, spacing, and ball security.
The engine is the backcourt duo of Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas.
Acuff has blossomed into a legitimate All-American, leading the conference in scoring while sitting third in assist rate. He controls tempo, scores at all three levels, and makes advanced reads off the bounce. His NBA stock continues to rise.
Thomas is the perfect complement: a lethal catch-and-shoot threat who punishes help and attacks closeouts decisively.
Most impressively, for two freshmen, the pair protects the ball. Arkansas ranks first nationally in turnover rate, an incredible number given how much usage flows through those two.
The recent emergence of Billy Richmond has added another layer. Richmond has topped 20 points in four straight games, scoring efficiently with a strong frame that helps him finish easily around the rim.
Inside, Malique Ewin (16th nationally in offensive rebounding rate) and Trevon Brazile provide second chances and versatility.
The offense is especially lethal when Ewin shares the court with the Acuff/Thomas duo: a ludicrous 138.5 offensive rating in 221 minutes, per CBB Analytics.
There are still concerns on the other side of the ball.
SEC opponents are shooting 69.9% at the rim, per CBB Analytics, indicating a glaring weakness. Despite good size on paper, Arkansas struggles to keep guards in front, putting too much pressure on the interior. If the perimeter containment doesn’t improve, this offense may have to continue carrying a heavy load.
Florida Basketball
Florida is tearing through the SEC right now, winning 13 of its past 14 and climbing into the top five nationally in KenPom.
The Gators have developed a terrifying defensive identity, imposing their will on what has become a soft-ish SEC this season — a stark contrast to last year’s war zone.
By a wide margin, Florida owns the best defense in the SEC. Per KenPom, the gap is staggering: the Gators are roughly eight points per 100 possessions better than second-place Tennessee, which is the same distance separating Tennessee from ninth-place Mississippi State.
The backbone is a massive, disciplined frontcourt. Rueben Chinyelu, Alex Condon, Thomas Haugh, and Micah Handlogten make the rim borderline untouchable.
Per CBB Analytics, Florida ranks in the 97th percentile nationally in at-the-rim field goal percentage allowed. More impressively, the Gators have done it against one of the toughest schedules in the country. In league play, they've are allowing a paltry 52.6% conversion rate at the bucket — even better than their non-conference number of 58.3%.
The defense establishes a sky-high floor. But Florida’s overall rise into elite territory has coincided with the growth of the transfer backcourt.
Boogie Fland and Xaivian Lee have finally settled in, giving Florida composure, downhill creation, and just enough shot-making to balance the defense-first approach. Neither will bomb away from deep, but Florida’s collective 3-point shooting has stabilized in league play, hovering around 33%, well above non-conference levels.
That modest shooting bump matters. When opponents have to respect the perimeter even slightly, the frontcourt’s screening, rolling, and offensive rebounding become far more punishing.
Florida doesn’t need fireworks. With this level of rim protection and improved guard play, the Gators simply squeeze teams into submission.
Arkansas vs. Florida Betting Analysis
Something has to give between the two top-five units on the floor: Arkansas’s fireworks-show offense and Florida’s boa constrictor defense.
But stylistically, we should see points.
Arkansas doesn’t rely exclusively on rim pressure; instead, it has elite shot-makers. Darius Acuff and Meleek Thomas can score at all three levels, and both are comfortable pulling up or working in space. Florida’s rim protection is real, but Arkansas can generate offense without living at the cup.
On the other end, Florida should absolutely punish Arkansas inside. The Razorbacks have struggled to contain dribble penetration, and their rim vulnerability is a blinking neon warning sign against the Gators’ bigs. The Gators could feast in the paint, live at the line, and generate second chances all night.
Pace is another factor. Both teams are willing participants in a track meet, ranking 50th and 20th nationally in offensive possession length, respectively, per KenPom. That suggests a high-possession environment, especially if this turns into a back-and-forth contest where both offenses are getting what they want.
I probably prefer Florida’s team total if you’re isolating one angle, as 100 points isn’t out of the question here.
But for our purposes, I will go with the full game over.
With Richmond emerging as another perimeter force, Arkansas’ offense is good enough to clear its share, and Florida has the profile to light up a vulnerable defense.
My Pick: Over 167.5
