The Arkansas Razorbacks take on the Missouri Tigers in Columbia, Missouri. Tip-off is set for 12 p.m. ET on ESPN.
Missouri is favored by 1.5 points on the spread with the moneyline at -118. The total is set at 158.5 points.
Here’s my Arkansas vs. Missouri prediction and college basketball picks for March 7, 2026.
Arkansas vs Missouri Prediction
My Pick: Missouri -1.5
My Arkansas vs Missouri best bet is on the Tigers to cover the spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Arkansas vs. Missouri Odds
| Arkansas Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+1.5 -115 | 158.5 -115o / -105u | -102 |
| Missouri Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-1.5 -105 | 158.5 -115o / -105u | -118 |
- Arkansas vs Missouri spread: Missouri -1.5
- Arkansas vs Missouri over/under: 158.5 points
- Arkansas vs Missouri moneyline: Arkansas -102, Missouri -118
Arkansas vs Missouri College Basketball Betting Preview
A burgeoning, albeit forced, rivalry has been growing over the past several years between Arkansas and Missouri.
The Razorbacks have controlled the Tigers of late, winning four of the past five.
Friday's early tip marks the final SEC game of the year for both squads and carries implications for conference tournament seeding. Arkansas can get the two-seed with a win and an Alabama loss. Mizzou can nab the five-seed or fall as far as the 10 if other games break the wrong way.
Arkansas is one of the best ATS teams in the land and is 7-3 against the number over its past 10 games.
It triumphed over Mizzou just two weeks ago in Bud Walton Arena, overcoming a hot Tigers start from the field. Winning the rebounding and turnover battles were key, and Mizzou simply couldn't stop the Hogs, who put up a blazing 1.37 points per possession (PPP).
Guard play leads the way for the nation's sixth-best offense. Darius Acuff Jr. (out for this game) and Billy Richmond III each had 20 points in the first game of this series, as they drove the offense alongside Maleek Thomas.
Transition is Arkansas’ preferred method of scoring, as the Hogs rank third nationally in PPP on the run. In the half-court, the Razorbacks settle into a “my guy is better than your guy” offense where the backcourt is free to break down opponents off the bounce and get to the cup.
Though Mizzou is strong defending the paint and rim with its size and physicality, Arkansas ranks third nationally in at-the-rim PPP.
On the flip side, Mizzou has been hot lately despite a rough loss to Oklahoma last time out. The Tigers are 6-2 ATS over their past eight games, and they’re 15-2 straight-up at home this season.
They jumped out to an early lead in the first game against Arkansas, as Mark Mitchell was a certifiable problem, scoring 26 points to go along with four boards and eight assists.
The issue was on defense, where they couldn't get stops.
Home court should yield better results, but it'll be difficult for the Tigers to score in transition, given that Arkansas is the best ball-handling team in the country and is decent on the glass.
Half-court offense has stagnated at times for Mizzou, especially in SEC play, where it ranks 12th nationally in adjusted efficiency.
Post play and isolating Mitchell against anyone takes the lion’s share of Mizzou’s half-court possessions, but it does have shooters dotting the arc in Trent Pierce, Jayden Stone and Jacob Crews. When firing on all cylinders, this attack can be tough to stop – it’s just impossible to predict when everything will click.
Mizzou’s rim-heavy offense (top 25 nationally in both field goal attempt rate and field goal percentage) should be able to score easily against a Hog team that ranks 353rd nationally in field goal percentage allowed.
The Tigers have proven they can beat anyone when their offense is flowing and their defense is locked in, as they’ve notched wins against Florida, Vanderbilt, Tennessee, and Kentucky this season.
The home-court edge, rivalry flair and the fact Acuff is out should propel the Tigers to a victory (and cover) as they aim to stay within the 8-to-10 seed lines in the NCAA Tournament picture.
My Pick: Missouri -1.5
