The Baylor Bears take on the Houston Cougars in Houston, Texas. Tip-off is set for 9 p.m. ET on ESPN2.
Houston is favored by 15.5 points on the spread with a moneyline of -2000. The total is set at 143.5 points.
Here’s my Baylor vs. Houston predictions and college basketball picks for March 4, 2026.
Baylor vs Houston Prediction
My Pick: Houston 1H ATS
My Baylor vs Houston best bet is on the Cougars to cover the first-half spread. For all of your college basketball bets, be sure to find the best lines by using our live NCAAB odds page.
Baylor vs. Houston Odds
| Baylor Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
+15.5 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | +1000 |
| Houston Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Total | Moneyline |
-15.5 -110 | 143.5 -110 / -110 | -2000 |
- Baylor vs Houston spread: Houston -15.5
- Baylor vs Houston over/under: 143.5 points
- Baylor vs Houston moneyline: Baylor +1000, Houston -2000
Baylor vs Houston College Basketball Betting Preview
Baylor Basketball
It's been a disastrous campaign for Baylor head coach Scott Drew, as his squad is on its way to missing its first NCAA Tournament in six years.
While the Bears are having their worst season in over a decade, Drew’s roster actually features a lot of talent, with Cameron Carr having a fantastic sophomore season in Waco.
Carr is posting over 19 points per game, along with nearly six rebounds and three assists on average. The sophomore has scored 26 points in each of his last two contests, and if the Bears are to make a run in March, it'll surely be on his back.
Carr leads a Baylor offense that's scoring over 81 points per game, which ranks inside the top 50 in the country in total offense.
Tounde Yessoufou, who joins Carr in the backcourt, is having a stellar season of his own. The combo guard hailing from West Africa was a five-star prospect, and he's now posting 17.5 points and nearly six rebounds per game in his first collegiate season.
For a team barely above .500, Baylor boasts elite guard play and offensive firepower. Guards Obi Agbim and Isaac Williams IV are averaging double-figure scoring efforts, as well.
On the other end of the floor, it's evident why the Bears have struggled so much.
For a head coach who's made a career of being a defensive mastermind — having led Baylor to a national title in 2021 thanks to its supreme defensive efforts — it's rather surprising how bad the Bears have been on that end of the floor this season.
Baylor is allowing opponents to score nearly 79 points per contest, with the Bears also ranking outside the top 120 in defensive efficiency, per KenPom.
Houston Basketball
After dropping three consecutive games for the first time in several years, Kelvin Sampson’s Cougars got right back on track on Saturday, blowing the doors off Colorado in a 40-point victory in which Houston scored over 100 points.
Despite their three recent losses, the Cougars have a 24-5 overall record and sit in second in the Big 12 standings, meaning they're in line for a No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
Leading the charge for the offense is superstar freshman guard Kingston Flemings, who's posting over 16 points per contest. The phenom is also an elite defender, which is far from surprising playing for a defensive mastermind like Sampson.
Houston has one of the best backcourts in the nation, with Emanuel Sharp having a strong campaign, as well.
The Houston guards lead an offense that's posting nearly 77 points per game while ranking inside the top 15 nationally in offensive efficiency rating, per KenPom.
In what should come as no surprise, Sampson’s Cougars once again have one of the best defenses in the entire country, allowing opponents to score just 62 points per contest. The aforementioned Houston guards all play a vital role in Sampson’s high-pressure defensive schematics.
The Houston head coach has implemented a “Core Four" defensive system, one featuring high-pressure post trapping and strict transition defense while preaching discipline on the defensive glass.
The Coogs’ interior defense is excellent, as well, with freshman center Chris Cenac Jr. playing a massive role inside.
The defense ranks seventh in the entire country in efficiency rating and is forcing turnovers on over 18% of its opponents’ possessions.
Sampson’s defense is forcing nearly 14 turnovers per contest, which ranks inside the top 30 in college basketball.
Baylor vs. Houston Betting Analysis
The Bears are in free fall, as they've dropped five of their last seven games. I'm having a tough time picturing Drew’s bunch keeping this game close, as Baylor has struggled mightily on the road in Big 12 play.
I expect Sampson to have his foot on the gas for all 40 minutes as Houston still looks to make a statement following its three defeats over the last two weeks.
I think the Coogs are clearly the right side in this matchup. I'll be looking to back them to cover the first-half spread, as I expect them to get off to a hot start on their home floor.
My Pick: Houston 1H ATS
